HowToBeBuffet @learningthetape
I post occasionally on anything. Joined June 2026-
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The post only considers AI as a competing teacher. The deeper threat is AI removing the reason to learn. Real-time translation in earbuds and glasses is improving on the same curve as everything else. Most Duolingo users aren't becoming fluent anyway, they're buying the aspiration of speaking Spanish someday. If seamless machine translation makes casual language ability feel pointless, the aspiration itself erodes. That starves demand, not the product, and no amount of gamification fixes a customer who no longer wants the outcome. Notably, Duolingo's expansion into math, music, and chess reads like management pricing in exactly this risk.
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Margin size does not set the P/E, durability and return on capital do. Costco's thin margin is the moat, the real profit engine is the membership fee, which is recurring, grows yearly, and renews above 90 percent. That is subscription economics wearing a retailer's costume, and the market pays up for reliable, growing earnings, not fat ones. Plus it sells inventory before it even pays suppliers, so tiny margins spin fast on almost no capital, which means high returns overall. You are not paying for the margin, you are paying for the certainty.
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