The Long Bear @longbearmacro

Top FTMO Macro Trader | $180,000 + in payouts | 6 years + experience London, England Joined August 2023

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

The ECB just hiked to 2.25%. First hike in nearly three years. Eurozone CPI: 4.2%. Hottest since 2023. Core driven by services — the same sticky engine showing up in the US data. Markets now price three more hikes this year. This was the thesis: inflation isn’t dead, and yields grind higher. It’s no longer a US story. It’s global. Higher yields are a ceiling on risk. The AI complex got that memo yesterday. Short risk, long dollar. The top, for a while, is in. Long the unloved🫡

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

The hard part was never the analysis. It’s sitting through −6R, taking the next entry at the same size, with the same conviction, when every instinct says shrink or quit. Survive being early. That’s the whole skill. The rest is arithmetic. Long the unloved.🫡

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

So the “low win rate” isn’t a weakness I tolerate. It’s the cost of structuring trades where one winner pays for ten losers. You can’t have huge RR and a high hit rate. Pick one. I pick RR, every time.

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

I lose more trades than I win. Last week: stopped out twice before a single trade worked. −6R in the hole before I made a penny. Then one trade paid +25R. The math behind that isn’t luck. It’s the entire strategy 🧵

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

@KobeissiLetter Cut Narrative is dead🫡

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

@KobeissiLetter Classical ‘try and describe price action that has already occurred’

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

Eight days ago I posted a thesis here on X: short Nasdaq into catalyst exhaustion. It’s on my timeline — go back and read it. The trades to express it went out live in my community. Entries, stops, timestamps, as they happened. It didn’t start clean. Day 1: −2R. Day 2: −4R. Two red days before the setup ever showed. Then it came. Nasdaq short: +25R. Sized small through both losses. No revenge trades. Being early cost 6R — and the discipline to survive being early is the only reason I was still in position when it paid. The thesis was public. The execution was the work. Low win rate. Big RR. That’s the whole game. Long the unloved🫡

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

The trade Short $QQQM (NASDAQ/NAS100). Catalyst exhaustion, not “market is wrong.” Initiated small. Adding into strength. Stop is thesis invalidation, not price. What invalidates: a second benign PCE, spreads tightening on rising volumes, a fresh bullish catalyst that we haven’t anticipated. Scrams overtextend. Full breakdown in the community tonight. Long the unloved.

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

The inflation tell April PCE: 0.2% m/m, benign. Kashkari says no hikes. April CPI services ex-energy: 0.50% m/m — 6.2% annualised, worst since March 2024. April core PPI: 1.03% m/m — 13.1% annualised. One of those data sets is wrong. The market is positioned for one of them.

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

5 months ago

The frame The deal will get done. I’ve held that for months. The market has priced it correctly. That’s not the trade. The trade is what comes after — when the rumour has been bought and the news is what’s left to sell.

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

6 months ago

2 years ago, I blew a $10k personal account in 2 weeks. Today: $181,000 total payouts with FTMO. After years of grinding, something finally clicked. The process is the edge. Sharing it all here. Follow for the journey - sharing every setup, payout, and lesson.

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The Long Bear @longbearmacro

3 years ago

@Taminibi @thefundedtrader @fundingpips @Khldfx The prices can be quite deceptive as there is a sacrifice on conditions however, @fundingpips do offer one of the best value challenges out there.