Luke Chaj @luke_chaj
aspiring solo dev, embracing ai. notes on ai + ai forecasting. Somewhere Peaceful Joined April 2023-
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Yeah, the speed of progress now will depend on the compressibility of the relevant circuits. I wouldn't even be completely certain that GPT-6 will use more training compute than GPT-5. The main reason is that we have multiple discoveries in model efficiency that require testing,…
Yeah, the speed of progress now will depend on the compressibility of the relevant circuits. I wouldn't even be completely certain that GPT-6 will use more training compute than GPT-5. The main reason is that we have multiple discoveries in model efficiency that require testing,…
Yep, I constantly see people wrongly assume that the things they can buy now with $20 or $200 subscriptions represent the current SOTA. It's partially true at the raw LLM level, but far from true for complex assemblies. There are IMO, IOI, ICPC gold level systems, for example,…
Yep, I constantly see people wrongly assume that the things they can buy now with $20 or $200 subscriptions represent the current SOTA. It's partially true at the raw LLM level, but far from true for complex assemblies. There are IMO, IOI, ICPC gold level systems, for example,…
I don't understand why anyone uses SWE bench verified to track the capabilities of models that far into the future. It's like this report has zero predictive value and was created for people with zero knowledge of forecasting in this area. I would speculate more about the…
I don't understand why anyone uses SWE bench verified to track the capabilities of models that far into the future. It's like this report has zero predictive value and was created for people with zero knowledge of forecasting in this area. I would speculate more about the…
Gary Marcus is a master at confusing balloons with birds, and he distracts from the fact that we don't have any way to be sure that balloons aren't early versions of rockets. Even if a rocket is completely different on every level from a balloon, a balloon shows that flight is…
Gary Marcus is a master at confusing balloons with birds, and he distracts from the fact that we don't have any way to be sure that balloons aren't early versions of rockets. Even if a rocket is completely different on every level from a balloon, a balloon shows that flight is…
I wonder when one of the Millennium Prize Problems will be solved.
I wonder when one of the Millennium Prize Problems will be solved.
😵💫 Yhm, so unique. They will certainly achieve AGI with this method.
😵💫 Yhm, so unique. They will certainly achieve AGI with this method.
The main reason for this is that a human has very limited intellectual capacity, but there is this blind spot where he does not see it.
The main reason for this is that a human has very limited intellectual capacity, but there is this blind spot where he does not see it.
The battle for the enterprise market continues. The revenue potential is much larger, obviously, especially when models get serious. At this moment, it’s obvious to think about Anthropic, what will they do? They raised a lot of money recently. If they believe they are able to…
The battle for the enterprise market continues. The revenue potential is much larger, obviously, especially when models get serious. At this moment, it’s obvious to think about Anthropic, what will they do? They raised a lot of money recently. If they believe they are able to…
Good summary. Right now, 1–3 can be extended a lot with complex scaffolding and 100× tokens. 4 also to some extent.
Good summary. Right now, 1–3 can be extended a lot with complex scaffolding and 100× tokens. 4 also to some extent.
I will reiterate my timeline prediction. Before the end of 2027, there will be technology that will be able to replace 95% of white collar jobs as they are done today. That doesn’t mean it will replace them, because of the typical friction in human systems and a lack of GPUs.…
GPT-5 needs to be at least 5× faster. Waiting 15 minutes for edits slows experimentation to a crawl.
I love where this sparsity thing is going.
I love where this sparsity thing is going.
I believe this is correct, and I need to admit I am not sure how long it will be sustained. My first instinct, based on hardware, suggests that Moore’s Law has already stopped and that there are only two years left of cluster size increases. But why do I think this way when we…
There will be tradeoffs for sure, but IQ, and especially knowledge per joule, will be much higher on average. I’m still bullish on maximizing every type of sparsity.
There will be tradeoffs for sure, but IQ, and especially knowledge per joule, will be much higher on average. I’m still bullish on maximizing every type of sparsity.
512 experts, 10 routed 🤯 Do you understand how fast it will be? I even don't take MTP into account right now.
28.7% on HLE with web search, fine-tuned from GPT-OSS-20B. This result doesn’t make sense to me. I assume that a model of this size obviously cannot store the relevant bits of this knowledge because it’s too small. This looks like serious generalization (at least in certain…
28.7% on HLE with web search, fine-tuned from GPT-OSS-20B. This result doesn’t make sense to me. I assume that a model of this size obviously cannot store the relevant bits of this knowledge because it’s too small. This looks like serious generalization (at least in certain…
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