I started this journey buying businesses (SMEs) in the real-world.
It was a nightmare:
Sourcing deals was painstaking
Negotiating prices was like pulling teeth
Managing teams was a daily grind
Scaling up the empire seemed impossible
Then I looked at the stock market instead (I…
Dainichi Co., Ltd. (5951.T) looks like a strong deep-value candidate, particularly cheap to assets.
TBV Ratio = 0.50
NCAV Ratio = 0.81
P/5Y FCF Ratio = 8.17
5-year average shareholder yield is 2.58% at today’s price (18Y average 3.38%).
They make oil fan heaters, environmental…
Anyone know if this did hold true?
“If the past experience of these studies holds true in the future, spectacular results could be achieved merely by buying a portfolio of recently spun-off companies. Translation: 20-percent annual returns, no special talents required.”
— Joel…
Shinko Shoji (8141.T) looks like a classic deep-value setup, trading cheaply to both assets and earnings.
TBV Ratio = 0.57
NCAV Ratio = 0.69
EV/5Y FCF = 1.96
P/5Y FCF = 7.84
FCF has been patchy, with positive cash flow only 60% of the time over the last 18 years.
5Y avg…
Shinko Shoji (8141.T) looks like a classic deep-value setup, trading cheaply to both assets and earnings.
TBV Ratio = 0.57
NCAV Ratio = 0.69
EV/5Y FCF = 1.96
P/5Y FCF = 7.84
FCF has been patchy, with positive cash flow only 60% of the time over the last 18 years.
5Y avg…
Ichiken Co (1847.T) looks like a classic deep-value setup: priced below book and cheap(ish) to earnings.
TBV Ratio = 0.80
NCAV Ratio = 0.92
EV/5Y FCF Ratio = 5.55
P/5Y FCF Ratio = 11.05
5Y avg shareholder yield is 2.9% (dividends only), and FCF has been positive in 8 of the…
I sift through hundreds of deep-value stocks each week, to find the ones that offer rock solid downside protection, along with significant upside.
This stock is currently trading with 600% upside to tangible book value alone.
If you’re a deep-value investor and want access to a…
Buffalo Inc. (6676.T) looks like a deep-value set-up driven by cash generation, not asset liquidation.
TBV Ratio = 1.16
NCAV Ratio = 1.32
EV/5Y FCF Ratio = 3.1
P/5Y FCF Ratio = 10
5Y avg free cash flow = ¥4.26bn.
Upside to fair value is +19.6% from today’s ¥3,540.
Enterprise…
Instone Real Estate (INS.DE) looks cheap to assets, and reasonably priced to earnings.
TBV Ratio = 0.69
EV/5Y FCF Ratio = 7.5
P/5Y FCF Ratio = 4.5
Five-year free cash flow has been decent, with 23% upside to my fair value and 44% to a conservative liquidation…
I’d highly recommend Capital Allocation by @McD_Investments . It’s a really interesting look at early Berkshire.
Must have been painstaking to put together.
It's just like Buffett said when he was running his partnership:
"I've got more ideas than capital."
Here's another for anyone interesting in deep-value stocks:
Shinden Hightex (3131.T) looks cheap to assets and earnings. (Rare for Japanese stocks)
TBV Ratio = 0.84
NCAV Ratio…
“The key to special-situation investing is simple: find areas where the usual market forces of supply and demand are temporarily out of balance. Spinoffs are one of the most consistent ways this happens.”
- Joel Greenblatt, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, Chapter 3, p. 149
Nikkato (5367.T) looks like deep-value:
TBV Ratio = 0.52
EV/5Y FCF Ratio = 6.0
P/5Y FCF Ratio = 10.5
5Y earnings power: ¥645m avg FCF. Upside: +93.4% to liquidation value/TBV.
What it is: Industrial ceramics maker (kiln/refractory and technical ceramics) supplying cyclical…
More Japanese deep-value...
Ichikawa (3513.T) looks asset-cheap:
You’re paying ¥8.32bn market cap for ¥21.78bn of TBV, and EV is only ¥2.84bn.
TBV Ratio = 0.38
EV/5Y FCF Ratio = 2.90
P/5Y FCF Ratio = 8.50
The business is FCF positive in 9 out of the last 10 years, with…
Nippon Ichi Software (3851.T) is cheap to the balance sheet:
TBV Ratio = 0.59
NCAV Ratio = 1.1
EV / 5Y FCF = 0.37 (EV ¥177m vs 5Y avg FCF ¥474m)
This has +68% upside to liquidation value and +61% upside to fair value (my calcs).
Business: a Japanese video game…
Moriya (1798.T) is a possible deep-value play:
TBV Ratio = 0.74
EV/5Y FCF Ratio = 2.2
The business has been FCF positive in 4 of the last 5 years, and I estimate around 73% upside to fair value.
What it is: Japanese regional general contractor (building & civil), cash-rich and…
Zett (8135.T) is a possible deep-value play:
NCAV Ratio = 1.1
TBV Ratio = 0.64
EV/5Y FCF Ratio = 0.1
Upside to my calculation of fair value is around 75%, and it’s generated positive FCF in 9 out of the last 10 years.
What it is: Japan sporting-goods wholesaler/brand…
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