From Shaky Ground: “FDR knew that almost 1/3 of the unemployed were in the building trades…Fannie Mae and a housing program could move the whole economic engine.”
This is why the Trump Administration cares so much about the housing market
Upside risk is the new downside risk. 08 was the spark, 2020 was the entrenchment of destructive QE and politically driven global fiscal mania. The reason homes cost so much, insurance, HC, cars, schools - anything with a modicum of scarcity is ballooning is because your…
Non-consensus Uranium view:
As much as I've been an outspoken bull on uranium fundamentals for over two years, I don't think this is about fundamentals any more.
If I learned anything from running a small HF, it was that market inefficiencies and vicious or virtuous cycles of…
Interesting Times with Ross Douthat “Does the future belong to China”, Wang describes the level of infrastructure penetration even in rural areas.
A lot like how American rail penetration (and highway later) set up a ton of potential energy for the kinetic energy of the economy
Unsurprisingly, many of the Chinese automakers that are profitable amidst “involution” have the largest presence in overseas markets where margins are higher.
Chart source: on.ft.com/4mWlWua
I’d follow Scott Bessent into war… 🫡
“Why the fuck are you talking to the president about me? Fuck you. I’ll punch you in your fucking face.”
That’s my Treasury Secretary.
Listening to @dwarkesh_sp pod on Stalin. Kotkin essentially says international conflict is the engine that pushes progress.
What if Pax Americana is (was?) the / a reason for @peterthiel take that there has largely been no progress in the world of atoms for decades?
“if Britain had pulled out of Southeast Asia, the Americans would not have backed the sterling, then the pound would have been devalued and Labour would have lost the second election. He muttered resentfully that the LBJ-Harold Wilson agreement would do Britain no good…”
Success is a lousy teacher.
Introducing the Investing Is Hard podcast to look at what goes wrong in investing—frauds, bankruptcies, fads, bad luck etc.
Short 20-30 min episodes.
Ep. 1 is on the collapse of $DUB.AX
Thanks to @atelicinvest for the idea
…esting-is-hard-podcast.simplecast.com
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