| osint_east | @osint_east
Objective analysis on the war in Ukraine. Verified sources and incisive conversations. Some opinions, many maps. Context matters. RT/FLW/LK ≠ END 🔞 linktr.ee/osint_east Joined February 2022-
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Zapraszam na krótką nitkę o obecnej sytuacji na froncie. W skrócie, sytuacja wygląda bardzo źle i nie należy oczekiwać jej poprawy w najbliższych tygodniach.
27APR24 Avdiivka sector ORBAT and operational thread. Over the past week RuAF has achieved series of local successes on Avdiivka sector. These began with sudden and unexpected penetration into village of Ocheretyne on 22APR24. 1/20
Ukraine update for the past 10 days. Northwest of Avdiivka, 🇷🇺 breached the 🇺🇦 line at Ocheretyne taking most of the settlement and capturing Soloviove and Novobakhmutivka. 🇷🇺 has also advanced in Semenivka and Berdychi. 🇺🇦 carried out a small counterattack in Pervomais'ke.
This may be semantics, but the composition of main barrel with priority of transporting dismounted infantry makes the armored barns technically 'assault guns'?
This may be semantics, but the composition of main barrel with priority of transporting dismounted infantry makes the armored barns technically 'assault guns'?
The breach at Ocheretyne widens as Russia captures most of the settlement, along with Novobakhmutivka and a portion of Soloviove. Despite Ukrainian reinforcements arriving, they have so far been unable to prevent Russia from establishing a foothold around the settlement.
The breach at Ocheretyne widens as Russia captures most of the settlement, along with Novobakhmutivka and a portion of Soloviove. Despite Ukrainian reinforcements arriving, they have so far been unable to prevent Russia from establishing a foothold around the settlement. https://t.co/0rXoNnPABJ
Video from Alexander Sladkov of more improvised armor on Russian tanks, including T-72B3M and T-80BVM obr 2022, with roof shelters or screens, chains, boxes, and other items. Note how the additional armor is mostly applied to the rear of the tanks. t.me/Sladkov_plus/1…
GeoConfirmed UKR - 30.000! 30.000. Thirty thousand. Our Ukraine map has just reached 30,000 GeoConfirmed entries. What started on February 24, 2022, with just one person trying to geolocate certain events in Ukraine to get a better insight into what was happening, has grown…
Ukraine war update: 🇷🇺 has continued its recent advances west of Bakhmut, taking positions close to the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and pushing 🇺🇦 out of Bohdanivka. 🇷🇺 have also attacked between Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.
Over the past 12 hours, numerous activists, journalists, news channels, organizations, and government officials have spread a plethora of misinformation. This thread will cover all of the misinformation I personally verified. Overview of the misinformation spread:
Israeli integrated air defenses will prioritize incoming threats that appear to be headed to populated areas/critical targets over ones that are not. In saturation attacks this means letting weapons hit in order to allocate effectors to higher priority threats. It’s complicated…
Consider that "impacts" are most likely to be debris from interceptions and/or interceptors. Videos of confirmed strikes may also be "allowed' in the sense trajectories of missiles were calculated to fall in areas where no risk to life/installations was imminent.
Roided-up crypto-clown-circlejerk of a Twitter Space - no other way to describe it.
In general agreement, but both parties remain capable of making poor decisions or succumbing to overreach.
In general agreement, but both parties remain capable of making poor decisions or succumbing to overreach.
Def Mon @DefMon3
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369K Followers 214 Following Cat owner from Kherson🇺🇦. Here I post mainly about ongoing war in Ukraine and situation in my hometown Kherson, liberated 11/11/2022. (fled from Kherson)Rob Lee @RALee85
687K Followers 4K Following Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture
347K Followers 1K Following Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | @CSIS Fellow | @LowyInstitute | #BannedInRussiaUkraine Battle Map @ukraine_map
346K Followers 624 Following Live Ukraine battle map is updated all the time. Showing cities and villages being under Ukraine or Russia control.ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki
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81K Followers 195 Following Military history, SCW, OSINT, space, electric cars. NATO/EU supporter. Bellingcat and Oryx Blog contributor. https://t.co/8gzCIdzfzBMichael Kofman @KofmanMichael
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375K Followers 239 Following Map updates for the war in Ukraine with occasional updates for other conflicts. https://t.co/JS7686HyV9Markus Jonsson @auonsson
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@SICNoticias @ERC_PT @UKRinPRT NÃO, @SICNoticias, esse mapa NÃO É do mesmo 'emissor Báltico que interfere nos GPS' que 'está realmente na zona de Kaliningrado, como já mostrado no #JornaldaNoite'. Kaliningrado nem aparece aí nessa versão cortada da infografia que plagiaram ao @auonsson! #guerrafriaaosfactos
@konrad_muzyka I think it took a lot longer than 6 weeks to get that low (more like 6+ months), and not sure observed effectiveness was ever as high as 70%, although would not debate the end result and where we’ve ended up on either Excalibur or GMLRS.
Me, 100%: Person with (i) zero inbox and (ii) can eyeball the difference between 11pt and 9pt spaces in between sentences in a 65 page .docx file. Degrees from Hamburger University, School of Hard Knocks, and the Sergeants Major Academy all accepted.
Now confirmed with data. Forbes surveyed managers with hiring authority. When asked whether more/less likely to hire vs 5 years ago: Ivy League: 7% more likely; 33% say less likely Public univs: 42% more likely; 5% less likely Selective privates: 37% more likely; 5% less likely
Doszliśmy do momentu w którym sytuacja na froncie jest najgorsza od marca 2022. Przewaga liczebna Rosjan ciągle rośnie, liczba ataków również. Ukraina nie przetrwała najczarniejszej godziny. Ona się dopiero zacznie.
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia. This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map. Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵
I found the Estonia jammer. Will try and make a nice presentation tonight. You wont believe where.
The people welding garage sheds to the tops of their tanks to keep out the birds are trying to claim superiority over the people flying prop planes.
Russia seems to be renewing offensive actions and making gains on multiple fronts. It also seems that some pro-Russian channels are quite reliably reporting the Russian advance, with their claimed gains getting confirmed by DS the same or the next day. This is never a good sign
Updated map showing Russian gains. Russian forces seized Soloviove and Semenivka, have seized most of Ocheretyne and Kyslivka near Kupiansk, and advanced near Novokalynove and in Ivanivske near Chasiv Yar. deepstatemap.live/en#16/49.6407/… t.me/DeepStateUA/19… t.me/DeepStateUA/19…
Outside?
The TikTok ban is getting real, and Instagram is downranking political content... where are political content creators supposed to go now? techcrunch.com/2024/04/25/gen…
I know people are laughing at this, but I don't think it is a crazy adaptation. The Russians are adapting to the particular conditions of the battlefield in which Ukraine has a lot of FPVs, but not enough ATGMs, anti-tank mines, and artillery. So sacrificing observation and the…
Video of an armored assault by Russia's 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade on Krasnohorivka, and another appearance of a tank with a massive counter-FPV shelter and EW jammer, which continues to driving after a DPICM strike. It looks like the lead tank in the first video has a…
@RALee85 Its not a tank anymore, Rob. This is Russia admitting they do not have APCs capable of fulfilling the most basic needs of their military. The are converting tanks into MT-LB.
31 March 2024 Russian BMP-3 equipped with 4S24 'Kaktus' explosive reactive armour. This is the first time I have seen 'Kaktus' ERA used on a BMP-3 in Ukraine.
Used @OsintrackerApp on the @HEXAOSINT CTF v3. The tool is fantastic and can handle hundreds of entities ! #OSINT
Delighted to be asked to contribute to this piece by @JP_Rathbone on last night’s Israeli missile raid against Iran. Potential rather unconventional employment of a ballistic missile threat simulator or an air-launched ballistic missile derivative by the Israeli Air Force.
Military briefing: the Israeli missiles used to strike Iran on.ft.com/49LrSPa
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition. t.me/milinfolive/12… t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
We need a snappy description for all those terrible "OSINT" accounts that do awful analysis or just repost things they've found on Telegram. OSHIT?
lran’s attacks on Israel seemed more concerned about symbolism than military destruction - there were minimal involvement by proxies and ample warning for air defenses and fighter jets to intercept the drones and missiles 1/
To everyone's surprise, the people who understood that FVEY intelligence is not to be laughed at had the correct takes last night, and the Blue Check troglodytes took more Ls. This app continues to be unique.
As expected.
This is significant: Biden made clear to Netanyahu that the US will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, @mj_lee to me on the air just now.
Iran had a difficult balancing act in their hands: A. Make it clear that Israel isn't unchallenged in the region B. Showcase your ability to strike deep into enemy territory C. Do as little damage as possible to avoid a major retaliation We'll see soon if they managed.