Boris @quoteshtuff
Building ultra-short-duration prediction markets that work for independent traders @Inflection_X Joined December 2017-
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@0xForecaster If we’re referring to long dated event contracts the price should reflect funding rates. Big realization of this was the early predict.it political event contracts where you could lock in a hefty spread on funded capital in advance of senate wins
@Satoshiscouncil sorry when you say "paper call"?
WAUs on Polymarket's BTC 5min UP/DOWN fell from ~61K in March to about 20K by September. The usual explanation is that US users moved to Kalshi or Polymarket US. But the data points to Polymarket itself. Polymarket's own decisions sped it up: 30 March: Overnight, the crypto taker fee at even money went from 1.56% to 3.6% of traded value. If you assume uniform distribution of trades across the price curve, the fee change was felt by a magnitude of ~1.5x. 28 April: the V2 upgrade. BTC 5m volume fell 30% in a week. Server-side checks meant to mitigate ghost fills added variance to order and cancel latency. I felt this firsthand by drawing down significantly during Asian hours in early May. 28 May: a tiered Taker Rebate Program which was inconsistently applied and required retrospective payouts. On top of that came a series of CLOB patches which you experienced a high probability of being rolled back. Demand for short-duration crypto contracts didn't disappear as evidenced by 15minute market volumes on Kalshi. Daily traders across all of Polymarket International dropped from 142K to 50K. Flow didn't move to other markets. Traders left Polymarket. This is a venue-side phenomena, not a refutation of sustained interest in short-duration binary event contracts. And it's why I'm building in this space.
@Dune Something incongruous in fee col from Polymarket v2 cutover on April 28 onward in polymarket_polygon.market_trades?
@Satoshiscouncil so you look at taker-side fills degraded by slippage and fees conditional on size?
@0xForecaster For us taking you to the next bin in a sequenced binary event schedule
@0xinternetchild Just to clarify, he’s deliberately disputing the outcome of UMA oracle settlement and then brute forcing the change via the count of UMA proposers he controls?
The TAM of trading system/bot/script testing with lowered risk is vast
@0xForecaster Or solve the genuine problems that a niche ICP has with the incumbents, like script/bot builders on short-duration events contracts ;)
I remember when "semantic arbitrage" was attempted with earlier LLM models and the results were atrocious, like mistaking conditional probabilities on house majority vs wins in swing states for a party. That's clearly changed on so many related prediction markets
even Opus 5.5 has terrible Python literacy. loves populating file sets with globals, default mutable arguments, and more env var injections than the Mounjaro craze
@bennpeifert Would you think about weighting a mid frequency portfolio of options positions based on target VaR? I.e. just scale the desired relative weights by the ratio of your target to estimated VaR.
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@Cryptik1E Any way in which you culled the information to determine which books set sharp lines or reputation/word-of-mouth?
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Thinking about starting a discord to connect voluntary onchain detectives. The purpose would be to dig into different DeFi projects and find if they work as they should, if someone abuses them etc. With the lack of regulations, the results could be published and have real impact
@TerribleQuant So should my simmed quotes be at fair value offset by my vol sample over the frequency at which I trade?
@robertmartin88 Are you using IV as your model’s vol input and the best fitting rfr from your cubic spline as the rate term in the binary pricing function?
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