🌧️ New Experimental AI Forecast Tracks India’s Monsoon Through September
We have released our latest experimental subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast guidance for India, initialized on 26 August 2026 using IFS initial conditions and a 100-member ensemble.
The forecast indicates an active monsoon pattern during the first week, with above-normal rainfall across parts of east-central India, including Odisha, Chhattisgarh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and adjoining areas.
During the second week, the main rainfall signal is expected to shift toward the Himalayan foothills and Northeast India, while much of central, western, and peninsular India becomes drier than normal. By the third week, enhanced rainfall may be largely confined to Northeast India.
Our forecast also indicates a gradual weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation after the first week. Warmer and drier conditions may expand across much of India during the third and fourth weeks. While these changes suggest the possible development of withdrawal-like conditions, it is too early to determine the formal timing of monsoon withdrawal.
Forecast confidence is highest for the first week and decreases at longer lead times.
📅 Forecast period: 26 August–22 September 2026
🛰️ Forecast initialization: IFS initial conditions
📊 Product: 100-member ensemble mean
🔬 Status: Experimental research guidance—not an official operational forecast
Explore the latest forecast products: s2s.scdlds.com#IndiaMonsoon#S2SForecasting#WeatherForecasting#ArtificialIntelligence#ClimateScience#Monsoon2026#AIForWeather
a nice slice of the himalayas, indo-gangetic plains and tibet with some weather station data (peep some of Delhi at the bottom right)
Really shows how flat the plains are and why it's been ideal for human settlement since thousands of years
Thanks @manmeet3591, always great to work with you in our projects across AI for radar rainfall nowcasting, monsoon prediction, S2S, pollution modelling, land use embeddings, finetuning, downscaling and many other supercool things
Shoutout to the budding AI weather scientist Sapta @rishhhh47 He is amazing and doing great work. Everyone, please follow him for updates on AI weather.
the only attribute i really care about is whether someone has a sense of humor, esp an appreciation for how absurd life often is.
without that, everything gets too heavy.
an important word for system design: redundancy! redundancy! redundancy! . . .
redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!redundancy!
having an illusion that something is working and that you are doing important work is worse than actually doing unimportant work knowing that it's unimportant
kinda analogous to bugs in code honestly if you know it's broken at least you know something is off
anthropomorphizing terms in AI like 'reasoning" "memory" "context" or even "artificial intelligence" kinda blurs truth of what's happening at an abstraction layer; and while abstraction is vv imp it still needs somehow say truth of what's happening which is math and code
great article davidepiffer.com/p/ai-isnt-outt…, so applicable to any other part of life where AI can be applied, increasing computers capabilities from being bicycles for the mind, to stochastic parrot rocketships for the mind
indian ai should have proper competitors to sarvam, will be mutually beneficial and incentivise innovation like china has the 5-6 ai tigers kimi deepseek zai qwen, or the west has the whole gallery openai anthropic meta google xai microsoft
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