Saar Wilf @saarwilf
Founded a few tech companies. Promoting rationality through probabilistic inference (@rootclaim). linkedin.com/in/saar-wilf-b… Earth Joined May 2009-
Tweets1K
-
Followers3K
-
Following160
-
Likes616
Today is the tenth anniversary of the Ghouta chemical attack. Rootclaim's 2017 analysis originally found an 87% likelihood of opposition forces' responsibility – a stark contrast to the dominant Western narrative. rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-c…
מדהים איך שופטים מנוסים שהשקיעו שנתיים בלימוד תיק זדורוב עדיין מגיעים כל אחד למסקנות סותרות לחלוטין, בדיוק כמו האדם מהרחוב. המוח האנושי פשוט לא יודע להתמודד עם מארג מורכב של ראיות ואי-ודאות. מערכת המשפט צריכה להיבנות מחדש עם דגש על תיקון ההטיות החשיבתיות האלה.
ההסתברות שרומן זדורוב, שהורשע ברצח תאיר ראדה ב-2006 ושבית המשפט העליון דן כעת בהרשעתו במשפט חוזר, הוא אכן הרוצח, נמוכה ביותר (1.3%). לאחר ניתוח הראיות, רוטקליים מצאה כי ההיפותזה לפיה אולה קרבצ'נקו היא הרוצחת של תאיר, היא הסבירה ביותר (98.4%).
Roman Zdorov, convicted of the murder of Tair Rada and who is currently undergoing a retrial in Israel’s Supreme Court, is highly unlikely to be guilty (1.3%). After analyzing the evidence, Rootclaim found the hypothesis that Ola Kravencko murdered Tair 98.4% likely. A 🧵:
אקשן מחר...
Tomorrow we will publish our analysis on the murder of Tair Rada, ahead of the retrial verdict expected on March 9th. The case is one of the most controversial in Israel’s history, with three leading suspects: Roman Zdorov, Ola Kravchenko, and Tair’s schoolmates.
@wikiwand 2.0 is officially here! All new #design, tonnes of powerful #Features like text-2-speech, #AI generated summaries and many more 🛸🚀 More here 👉 wikiwand.com
Steve Kirsch's newsletter -- A $500K debate: Did the COVID vaccine save lives or not? stevekirsch.substack.com/p/a-500k-debat…
Mahsa Amini’s death, which led to widespread protests in Iran and abroad, was most likely (87%) due to natural causes, and not violence by the Guidance Patrol, commonly known as the “morality police” - Why? A summary of our analysis is below. rootclaim.com/analysis/mahsa…
Following the announcement of the $500,000 debate challenge on vaccine efficacy - Kirsch polled his subscribers on who they believe will win - the results:
Update: We and Kirsch are making good progress on setting the parameters of the $500,000 challenge and we're in the process of finalizing our agreed picks for the two judges. Our preference will be for the most experienced, well-respected, and unbiased experts. #VaccineDeaths
Update: We and Kirsch are making good progress on setting the parameters of the $500,000 challenge and we're in the process of finalizing our agreed picks for the two judges. Our preference will be for the most experienced, well-respected, and unbiased experts. #VaccineDeaths
Have mRNA vaccines killed more people than they have saved? That's what American entrepreneur Steve Kirsch claims in his Covid-19 challenge list. Today we are announcing that Rootclaim is taking on this challenge for $500,000. Detailed explanation below👇 blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-acce…
Or Azulay @orslimy
5K Followers 5K Following I help companies build better products, faster. I also do X spaces with fun and interesting people and manage a community of 200+ PMs
Liad Agmon @liadagmon
11K Followers 687 Following
Yasmin Gold @yasmin_gold
1K Followers 638 Following
טל @_Tal_3
1K Followers 986 Following
Shimon Shvartsbroit @Shvartsbroit
2K Followers 2K Following Consumer x NFX = ❤️ .Previously Co-Founder & CEO @ OINC (crypto protocol for good). Father, 2 kids and 1 wife who are all slaves to Stimpy the cat :)
Tokens4live @Tokens4live
27 Followers 733 Following Run, and you'll live... at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for on
Raviv Gurtensten @Ravivgur
330 Followers 517 Following #DevRel & #EmployerBranding Manager @Riskified, @RiskifiedTech | #Operations Manager | #Communities Builder | Amateur #bass player 🎸
David Gabay 🇮🇱 @GabayDavid
591 Followers 2K Following A husband & father of three. Software Engineer @XR_Health Mostly investing and tech twitting
Saxon E. Musk @saxon__musk
133 Followers 742 Following Am Saxon musk The son of Elon Musk CEO of twitter (X) and Tesla 🚀🚀🚀🇺🇸
Raz Kaplan @raz_kaplan
2K Followers 4K Following Unflitered. Marketing @ @SQreamTech Innovation & early stage growth , strategy & storytelling expert | News & Data addict
Yair Zarka @ZarkaYair
71 Followers 1K Following
Aadi Rajesh @TheAadiAadi
87 Followers 680 Following Found something I wrote interesting?DM! :) Intersection of intelligence, uncertainty, risk, truth, leverage, kindness and people🤖
Jonathan Mannhart is .. @JMannhart
2K Followers 1K Following Interested in: cognitive science, Bayes, (ir)rationality, (effective) altruism, happiness, AI Alignment, reward hacking, running, reading books
Collin Heer, Ph.D. @HeerCollin
363 Followers 2K Following K00 Fellow in @ranjitbindra lab @Yale. Studying electron movement in biological systems w/ focus on tumor cell NAD metabolism.
Daniel Victoriano Bre.. @DanielVict78121
1 Followers 224 Following
mvdsoclzic9ye @mb3k9nle8x1
13 Followers 500 Following We first transfer USDT to you TRC20, you return 90% to BEP20, you get 10% , 2K per day Our co hv a large amt of USDT need to from TRC20 convert to BEP20 network
Jamie Brownlee @_JamieBrownlee
143 Followers 5K Following
Hugo Fortier @hfortiermtl
102 Followers 164 Following
Kodos @_Kodos_
657 Followers 1K Following Eurotrash social democrat Interested in 🛸 👽🍄 Pronouns: I/me/mine
Pancho @pppanchopp
247 Followers 2K Following Agnostic, skeptic and humanist. Free speech is paramount.
treechat.ai @treechatai
1K Followers 2K Following Infinitely threaded chat for valuable conversation with humans and ai
Michael McLeary @michael_mcleary
197 Followers 545 Following Excellence is good, actually. Cognitive Infrastructure Engineer. Unlicensed Pundit. La energía es vida. The famines are intentional.
V_Urb_ @v_urb_
554 Followers 4K Following
Louise @54pQ4hcAEMhkw52
27 Followers 1K Following I am a lively and cheerful girl who would like to meet a good friend.
SolarxPvP🥋 @SolarxPvP
394 Followers 2K Following Analytic philosophy. Christian ✝️. Huemer-style libertarian 🗽 ADHD. Anti-social desirability bias. Ethical vegan🌱 pro-life 👶 I like fun 🎵🎥📺 Bama/ATL🏈🏀⚾
Calvo Fairy @FairyCalvo
179 Followers 2K Following Magical being, hailing from Argentina. Better than state-dependent pricing. Bête noire of first-year grad students who dislike macro.
Alexander Leo Dugan @dugan_alexander
152 Followers 735 Following Not American, but interested in American politics and American cultural politics.
Rob Townley @RobTownley6
154 Followers 237 Following Moleculista. https://t.co/nuH2ql74VQ 0000-0002-9347-2431 https://t.co/WbJUHqy60I
Seyfemichael Teklemar.. @SeyfemichaelT
2 Followers 37 Following
JD Mumma, Ami. @jdmumma
453 Followers 1K Following ♦ Anthropomaxian, Life Hacker, Mental Chiropractor, Social Entrepreneur, Polymath, Philanthropist, Speaker, Vegan, Gardener... Compos Mentis!
Data Catalyst Institu.. @DataCatalystOrg
7K Followers 6K Following DCI analyzes trends and challenges at the intersection of innovation, business, government, and public opinion. Part of @TheRXNGroup.
David Antoniuk @AntoniukDavid
2K Followers 2K Following 🎥🎬📽🙏🥃🇨🇦🇺🇦 Ukrainian~Canadian. Filmmaker, Runner and Raconteur. My short film Eleftheromania now available on Vimeo. https://t.co/fXjn5GaOqq…
꧁ 𝔾𝕦𝕪 𝕋.. @Guy_T_Sky
228 Followers 882 Following Confounder of @TheRealDAGsHub . Can cast level 7 mass analysis paralysis, twice per day.
Cloud's Edge λॐ @CloudsEdge
108 Followers 4K Following
Giovanni Fontana @Distantisaluti
3K Followers 315 Following 10 years ago I was much more likely to go into academia than create a charity that works in Refugee camps. But life is unpredictable: Second Tree https://t.co/ZdZADQ8eVw
Jonatan Pallesen @jonatanpallesen
15K Followers 879 Following PhD in statistical genetics. I analyze and tweet about questions in science and economics. Writing a book: Intuitive Statistics
Michael Thomas @ChargingThrough
25 Followers 5K Following
Tequehead @tequehead
314 Followers 2K Following likes computer vision, anime, genetics, machine learning. got a lot of ingenious ideas, just need someone with talent to implement them my philosophy is simula
Paul Best @KincaidBest
1K Followers 1K Following Journalist @CatoInstitute | DM or email pbest at cato dot org
John Coady @Poison_Coady
42 Followers 230 Following
山田 @capt_obv1
179 Followers 844 Following
Ilan @ilan_peer
2K Followers 1K Following 1 in 8 billion, thinking about the other 7,999,999,999 (tweets are purged by some services)
jlsi22 @JlStasi
146 Followers 3K Following
Josh Wine @joshwine1
332 Followers 403 Following I acknowledge that I am in Jerusalem, the ancestral and unceded territory of the Tribe of Benjamin. I join their struggle against systems of oppression.
Elle Griffin @elleinelysium
15 Followers 102 Following Studying utopia. Only here to follow thinkers who are not on Substack.
TruthChain Tias @truthchain_tias
4 Followers 88 Following Pure truth ⛰️ join the knowledge revolution: https://t.co/zaSINspsg0
Tori Kuick @TKuick64860
38 Followers 5K Following
Yaniv Erlich 💔 @erlichya
27K Followers 733 Following CEO/co-founder of @eleventx 🧬 ➡️🚀 Selected Bio: @MyHeritage's CSO (acquired by Francisco Partners). Prof. of CS at @Columbia U PI at @WhiteheadInst of MIT ✡
Alon Mizrahi I withou.. @alon_mizrahi
57K Followers 3K Following Antiestablishment, pro-humanity thinker, writer, and speaker out of Israel. Abdalla's grandson. You can support my work here https://t.co/PN3Fb0VQHs
shalom boguslavsky @SBogus
30K Followers 678 Following In-depth and educational tours in Eastern Europe, Israel and elsewhere.
Shimon Shvartsbroit @Shvartsbroit
2K Followers 2K Following Consumer x NFX = ❤️ .Previously Co-Founder & CEO @ OINC (crypto protocol for good). Father, 2 kids and 1 wife who are all slaves to Stimpy the cat :)
Matan Holzer @MatanHolzer
3K Followers 310 Following
רופאים לזכו.. @PHR_IL
6K Followers 97 Following We believe that ALL people have the Right to Health and we will fight for that. English account is @PHRIsrael
GAZAWOOD - the PALLYW.. @GAZAWOOD1
13K Followers 15 Following THEY THINK YOU ARE STUPID A "few" fake vids, or... A MASSIVE PRODUCTION ??? From the #pallywood saga we present: GAZAWOOD https://t.co/4DF26W1qyC
Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo
379K Followers 199 Following Anti Woke, Anti hypocrisy, Anti fake news! - Support me here https://t.co/xet7VLoADc - funny non political account here @myfunnybebo
Orly Noy مژگان �.. @NoyOrly
11K Followers 649 Following مترجم و روزنامه نگار ايرانى تبار در اسرائيل
TheEngineer2 🇨🇦 @Engineer2The
2K Followers 483 Following [email protected] https://t.co/mNsn5QrkNa #DRASTIC member BEng - Embedded Systems Design
Shayan Sardarizadeh @Shayan86
182K Followers 11K Following Journalist at BBC Verify | disinformation, conspiracy theories, verification, AI, open source investigations, extremism | [email protected]
Propaganda and co @propandco
139K Followers 367 Following everything is propaganda. choose your own. https://t.co/Obq4DlUK46
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
254K Followers 781 Following Transcending Borders in a Multipolar World
Tal Hagin @talhagin
9K Followers 4K Following OSINT Analyst of Mis/Disinformation, with a focus on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Follows/Retweets are NOT endorsements.
ישראל פריי @freyisrael1
92K Followers 70 Following עיתונאי קטן שלכם | קָרוֹב ה' לְנִשְׁבְּרֵי לֵב וְאֶת דַּכְּאֵי רוּחַ יוֹשִׁיעַ
Connor Leahy @NPCollapse
23K Followers 554 Following Hacker - CEO @ConjectureAI - Ex-Head of @AiEleuther - I don't know how to save the world, but dammit I'm gonna try
The Grayzone @TheGrayzoneNews
318K Followers 114 Following Independent news and investigative journalism on politics and empire. Videos: https://t.co/WP6SSkXcjv
Alter.org.il @Alter_org_il
85 Followers 31 Following הארגון למען העתיד הרחוק (אלתר) / Association for Long Term Existence and Resilience - Changing the world for the long term, today.
AI Notkilleveryoneism.. @AISafetyMemes
33K Followers 798 Following Techno-optimist, but AGI is not like the other technologies. Step 1: make memes. Step 2: ??? Step 3: lower p(doom)
Boy Boy @BoyBoy_Official
71K Followers 360 Following All the views on this page represent my employer - Ray White Real Estate
Asterisk @asteriskmgzn
3K Followers 52 Following "a handsomely designed print magazine" –– The New Yorker available in barnes & noble and at https://t.co/KSgjzBbDTx online 👇
Steve Kirsch @stkirsch
482K Followers 439 Following Truth-teller, critical thinker, founder COVID-19 Early Treatment Fund (CETF). Vaccine Safety Research Foundation, entrepreneur, philanthropist, environmentalist
PokerStake @pokerstakecom
20K Followers 497 Following https://t.co/QvRqUypnY6 is poker’s premier website to buy and sell action! Get in the game! Stake your favorite players now. #pokerstakecom
Adam Shuv אדם שו.. @adamshuv
4K Followers 423 Following CMO | Innovative marketing | content strategy | Real Estate
PolyBio @polybioRF
10K Followers 2K Following 501(c)3 transforming how #LongCovid, #ME/CFS & LongLyme are studied, diagnosed, and treated. Leading the #LongCovid Research Consortium.
Quest Nutrition @QuestNutrition
120K Followers 6K Following Big on protein. Low on sugar. Huge on flavor. #ItsBasicallyCheating 💪
ChocZero @CHOCZERO
4K Followers 34 Following A family owned chocolatier that's nationwide in Whole Foods, Sprouts, and more. The zero is for zero sugar. We use monk fruit and yes, we're keto friendly. 🍫
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
215K Followers 1K Following Entrepreneur. Previously HouseTrip (sold to TripAdvisor), now https://t.co/C4SmZQ8JaE Subscribe if you like what I write
Elder of Ziyon 🇮�.. @elderofziyon
96K Followers 860 Following Buy my book PROTOCOLS: EXPOSING MODERN ANTISEMITISM Amazon: https://t.co/Vq9q28Q5wd https://t.co/Xz5Uoy5Nq2
AbuAliEnglish @AbuAliEnglishB1
14K Followers 1 Following The official Twitter of Abu Ali Express in English - Bringing you all the activity from Telegram. https://t.co/mISpvYqRmT [email protected]
Jason Kint @jason_kint
71K Followers 3K Following CEO DCN. Media strategy, streaming, antitrust, privacy. @wustl, Sporting News, CBS Sports alum. #HoldTheLine #IStandwithEvan #PressFreedom Hear more at @dcnorg
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
3.4M Followers 2K Following New Book, On The Edge, August 13: https://t.co/WeCLEOd4Be
Roger Seheult, MD @RogerSeheult
10K Followers 134 Following 1.5 million on YouTube MedCram 4X Board Certified: IM, Pulm, Sleep, Critical Care Full time Clinician Co-Founder MedCram Professor at Loma Linda Univ and UCR
Azov Brigade @azov_media
206K Followers 4 Following Website: https://t.co/kgtSrWb8Ga Donations: https://t.co/qDY4K6BST3 YouTube: https://t.co/jy8CWiNDmX Instagram: https://t.co/p7KKsVsx4H
Karl Pfleger @KarlPfleger
3K Followers 252 Following Founder of nonprofit https://t.co/3YFYC8TFCl Investor in rejuvenation startups: portfolio on LinkedIn Organizer of https://t.co/kzltxwwU9p AI/ML Stanford PhD & ex-Google
Russians With Attitud.. @RWApodcast
321K Followers 175 Following Two Russians manoeuvring American monoculture; currently in armchair war reporter mode | Listen to our podcast: https://t.co/Q6fP6vqZ6P
PI @PredictIt
33K Followers 18K Following Buy and sell political futures. PSAs: - 95% ≠ Certainty - Forecasts ≠ Future - Turnout = Outcome
zerohedge @zerohedge
1.8M Followers 901 Following
Josette Schoenmakers @JosetteSchoenma
7K Followers 402 Following
Ido Haar @HaarIdo
138 Followers 297 Following
Eishton @Eishton
6K Followers 2K Following כל העוולות אחת הן והאמונה שלא כך הדבר, היא מקור כל העוולות.
Gilad Mishne @gilad
4K Followers 538 Following Past: Biotech @ GoogleX, Payments @Google, Bioinformatics @Color, Search @Twitter, @Yahoo, @IBM, @Intel Current: attempted retirement Memento mori
Ron Sokolovsky @RonSokolovsky
185 Followers 43 Following Functioning workaholic, raising 2 minigeeks via dad jokes and 80’s movies. Opinions are my own and not that interesting
Fact Briefs @FactBriefs
24K Followers 85 Following Sharing fact briefs from @GigafactProject contributors. Fact briefs analyze the evidence behind salient unsupported claims.
4 years after my first Medium article on Covid origins, I wrote another one. In it, I make the case that SARS-CoV-2 is precisely the virus WIV was hunting for in 2019. yurideigin.medium.com/sars-cov-2-is-… Below is a thread on the key points:
Lab leak hypothesis critics often say that before the pandemic, WIV would not have found SARS2 or its progenitor interesting. "WIV was only interested in SARS-like viruses that were very close to SARS1," they say. We now know this is completely false: in November 2018 (a few…
In our debate on Covid origins, Peter @tgof137 kept insisting that the DEFUSE proposal was only interested in viruses that are only within a 95% similarity to (i.e. at most 5% different from) SARS1. I thought I fully explained that Peter was mistaken and the judges have agreed…
Whenever I say anything remotely like this, I lay out the arguments and do my best to explain to the reader the basic math I think relevant. That is one of the differences between intellectual leadership, and intellectual showmanship and bullying.
@ESYudkowsky Actually you also need a background in functional analysis, optimization theory, probability theory, complexity theory, and thermodynamics to make coherent full-stack arguments about the future of AI
New blog post - Rootclaim's response to Scott Alexander's review of our COVID origins debate blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-…
@saarwilf @ban_epp_gofroc if you do this again, I would either focus on just steelmaning your side, or select a different format (e.g. written). maybe use historic examples more often (meat plant was also blamed after Sverdlovsk, all data such as market samples can easily be filtered/modified by the CCP)
@saarwilf @ban_epp_gofroc in your defense, the DEFUSE drafts showing that the virologists truly planned to order BsmBI and use 6 segments wasn't out yet, so I do understand that it can be difficult to judge if we were just looking for random patterns in our preprint.
If I understood @saarwilf correctly, he was pretty sure the widely discussed evidence (time, location, FCS) would be sufficient to convince the judges. IMO these judges could have easily understood the more complex molecular evidence as well: youtu.be/EuuY94tsbls?si…
💡Seriously, thanks to @SolidEvidence’s insight, we can potentially solve the mystery of Covid origins via a ~$100k experiment. Armed with these characteristic gut-to-respiratory mutations that are frequently reverting once SARS2 finds itself persisting in the gut environment…
I think @SolidEvidence’s observations about SARS2 gut reversions are very insightful as they potentially allow us to experimentally test various potential intermediate hosts — we can construct an enteric proto-SARS2 (with and without an FCS) that we can then passage in several…
A new hypothesis about why all our sensemaking institutions seem to be failing at the same time. We often lament how seemingly every body whose job it is to figure out the truth -- media, academic journals, doctors, courts, universities, even the military, seem to have lost the…
If we reported news rationally, every headline, every day for the next few years would go “AGI is fast approaching.” Everything else is a rounding error — and anyone working on anything else is wasting their time.
And the winner of Rootclaim’s COVID-19 origins debate and the $100,000 prize is… Unfortunately, not us :). We would like to explain this result, but first, we would like to congratulate our opponent and Rootclaim’s first challenger, Peter Miller (@tgof137). Miller showcased an…
Today’s insight from our Covid Origins debate is about the Furin Cleavage Site (FCS) - an amino acid sequence that facilitates Covid’s entry into cells. It is generally agreed the existence of an FCS supports the lab leak hypothesis, but to what extent?
The latest FOIAed DEFUSE drafts only strengthen the notion that SARS2 is exactly the virus one would expect to leak from a lab that coauthored the DEFUSE proposal. While DEFUSE doesn’t explicitly say “we plan to insert PRRA into a BANAL-52-like CoV”, it outlines the blueprint for…
Here’s a clip on why the DEFUSE proposal is so important for Covid origins. Basically, SARS2 is exactly the virus one would expect to leak as a result of the kind of research that DEFUSE outlined: sample many new SARS-like viruses, screen them for the ability to enter human cells…
We are excited to announce we recently hosted the first COVID origin debate with a $100,000 prize, to determine whether the virus originated from a lab or nature. The winner will be announced in a few weeks. Until then we will share some of our insights. x.com/esyudkowsky/st…
Civil debate between people who understand likelihoods, on the Animal Origin vs. Lab Leak theories of Covid-19. Two impartial judges. $200,000 staked by both sides. 6 of 18 video hours initially posted. youtube.com/watch?v=Y1vaoo… youtube.com/watch?v=KdORmv… youtube.com/watch?v=d1dbfo……
עדכוני ברזל - 8.1.24: נדב איל והצביעות של דרום אפריקה עדכונים על המתרחש בעזה, תיעודים חדשים מהשטח ומה נדב איל שכח לציין לגבי דרום אפריקה והצביעות שלה בתביעתה את ישראל על רצח עם, בעוד היא לכאורה תומכת במילציה סודנית רצחנית? eishton.wordpress.com/2024/01/08/iro…
Curious about Covid origins and got 6 hours to kill? 🙂 Then here’s part 2 of the $100K debate organized by @Rootclaim between @saarwilf and @tgof137. In this session I argue the lab leak side from the standpoint of SARS2 genetics in light of DEFUSE and WIV’s history of…
עדכוני ברזל – 6.1.24: ישראל הטילה שווה ערך של יותר משלוש פצצות אטום על עזה הפעם בפינה: נתונים על סך החימוש שהטילה ישראל על עזה, תיעודים חדשים מעזה (של חיילים ושל העזתים), צנזורה נרחבת ברשתות החברתיות ובתקשורת ועוד. eishton.wordpress.com/2024/01/06/iro…
פינה חדשה בבלוג - עדכוני ברזל : המלחמה שלא רואים בתקשורת והפעם, כ-20% מחברי הקואליציה קראו לרצח עם, תיעודים מעזה (של עזתים ושל חיילים), מה נתניהו שכח להזכיר כשגינה את דרום אפריקה על טענתה כי ישראל מבצעת רצח עם ועוד. eishton.wordpress.com/2024/01/04/iro…
Trends for United States
You might like
