Seaside Capital @seasidealts
Have fun and enjoy it while it lasts | Currently math @AmherstCollege Dec’25 substack.com/@seasidealts Joined January 2025-
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Long $VKTX Bullet Thesis 8/19/25 From $42 to $23 in a blink of an eye… Life comes at you fast. Thesis: VK2735 oral demonstrated competitive efficacy, but the Street is overly fixated on absolute discontinuation rates rather than dose-response curves. The 7% placebo-adjusted…
Long $SPOT / Short $NFLX Pair Trade Thesis: Long $SPOT / Short $NFLX capitalizes on diverging business momentum between Spotify and Netflix. Spotify maintains a premium valuation through continued pricing power and operating margin expansion, while Netflix pulls back after its…
Walmart ($WMT) Short Thesis Thesis: Walmart’s 37x P/E and 19x EV/EBITDA reflect a valuation disconnect from its deteriorating fundamentals, particularly its exposure to U.S.-China tariffs. With over 60% of its globally sourced merchandise from China and limited pricing power,…
Walmart ($WMT) Short Thesis Thesis: Walmart’s 37x P/E and 19x EV/EBITDA reflect a valuation disconnect from its deteriorating fundamentals, particularly its exposure to U.S.-China tariffs. With over 60% of its globally sourced merchandise from China and limited pricing power,…
$LFCR - Lifecore Biomedical Deep Dive / Hold Rating Thesis: Lifecore Biomedical is undergoing a strategic transformation under new leadership that could unlock previously obscured value in its CDMO business. Significant untapped capacity, multiple growth catalysts, and potential…
$LLY Orforglipron Phase 3 results: x.com/SpecialSitsNew…
$LLY Orforglipron Phase 3 results: x.com/SpecialSitsNew…
Long Gold / Short Oil Pair Trade Thesis: A long gold/short oil pair trade captures a policy-driven or recession-driven macro divergence: Gold’s safe-haven appeal accelerates amid escalating U.S.-China tariffs, U.S. recession fears, and global macro uncertainty, while oil faces…
Long $AMZN / Short $COST Pair Trade Thesis: A 73% valuation gap ($AMZN at 30x P/E vs. $COST at 52x) contradicts Amazon’s stronger growth and margin momentum, creating an arbitrage opportunity. With consumer spending and sentiment cooling, Amazon’s diversified revenue streams and…
Eli Lilly ($LLY): Thesis: Eli Lilly offers a strong investment case over the next 3-5 years, fueled by its innovative pipelines in diabetes and obesity, solid fundamentals, and significant manufacturing commitments that position it for sustained growth. Metabolic Drug…
Seaside Capital's U.S. Market Outlook 2/26/25: The prevailing sentiment is one of cautious optimism - or extreme optimism in the case of these CEOs: x.com/aggiecapitalis… - fueled by a resilient U.S. economy and a Fed that has publically said it isn't in a rush to do anything.…
Seaside Capital's U.S. Market Outlook 2/26/25: The prevailing sentiment is one of cautious optimism - or extreme optimism in the case of these CEOs: x.com/aggiecapitalis… - fueled by a resilient U.S. economy and a Fed that has publically said it isn't in a rush to do anything.…
Thesis: The biotech sector is a strong bet over the coming decade, driven by converging advancements in AI, CRISPR, and precision medicine. AI-Driven Efficiency: Leveraging predictive modeling of molecular interactions, protein structures, etc., AI has already reduced R&D…
ELAH Holdings (OTC: ELLH) Thesis: ELLH is a post-bankruptcy shell holding $1.0B in federal net operating losses, with $650M expiring if not used before their 2027 tax year. With a market cap of $17.8M, zero debt, and a cash position of ~$8M, the stock prices in near-zero NOL…
I see a good opportunity to invest in the consumer health food space over the next 6-18+ months for the following reasons: Increased Health Consciousness: Over the past year, the American public has become increasingly concerned with what they put in their bodies, driven by…
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