Warren Buffett: “Todos esos economistas con un IQ de 160 que se pasan la vida estudiando economía, ¿me puedes decir uno solo que se haya hecho millonario invirtiendo en bolsa?”
“Si repasas toda su historia, no ganan gran cosa comprando y vendiendo acciones, y sin embargo los que compran y venden acciones les hacen caso. Eso me cuesta entenderlo.”
Peter Thiel: Most People Aren't Evil, They're Just Incompetent
"Most things are not evil. They're not even good. They're just merely bad. If you're in a world where 99% of the businesses, companies, people, political leaders, business leaders are totally incompetent, that's the problem we should actually be talking about." — @peterthiel
«No importa cuán aislado estés y cuán solo te sientas, si haces tu trabajo de verdad y con conciencia, amigos desconocidos vendrán y te buscarán.» — Carl Jung
"In high school, ambitious students compete even harder to appear omnicompetent.
By the time a student gets to college, he’s spent a decade curating a bewilderingly diverse résumé to prepare for a completely unknowable future.
Come what may, he’s ready, for nothing in particular."
- Peter Thiel
Peter Thiel in his lectures talks about how the railroads were an amazing public good, but because there was no monopoly, the railroad building companies kept competing until they tore each other apart, so could not extract the economic value, and they went bankrupt.
It was obvious from the beginning that that was AI.
The big AI companies are screaming doom and safety because they know they are the 21st century railroad companies and know the only way to avoid that fate is a monopoly from government regulation.
It really is that simple.
So I just want to say, sorry frontier labs, u knew what u were getting into, don't hold us hostage. Ur going bankrupt, but thanks so much for what u r doing before u do.
Peter Thiel says the growing US budget deficit is going to push America to "socialist levels of taxation" or massive cuts to welfare:
"You have basically three choices":
1. Massively cut spending
2. Massively hike taxes
3. Keep kicking the can down the road
"For close to 20 years, the answer's been #3.
"Ever since the 2008 crisis, we've just been borrowing more and more money."
"My intuition is we're close to point where that ends, and then you're going to be pushed to a very non-centrist solution of either socialist levels of taxation or some really tough austerity measures."
Via Mathias Döpfner
Okay. I’ll take the bait.
I went to work for Peter in 2013 with opposite politics.
He sat me down right at the beginning.
PETER: “I don’t want the (Thiel) Foundation to do good that the market can do. That is the job of the market. Likewise, I don’t want to do the good work that is seen as good. That work can be done by people richer, weaker and more needy of approval than we are. I want us to do only the work that is *deeply* good but somehow confused for being evil, because that is the work of the courageous and the strong. We strive to be both and that is where a small foundation can make the greatest positive difference. Go look for such good and let’s do that. But remember. Good has TWO different antonyms. What is “bad work”? It could be seen as shoddy work. Or it could be seen as evil work. And we can’t do shoddy work. Why? Because evil that isn’t competent never gets to be evil. It’s just pathetic. So we have to be exceptionally competent at the good work which we do to make sure it is always confused for evil.”
I thought it totally logical. So that’s the argument. And that’s classic Peter.
This is an old idea of his. And now you know.
Peter Thiel on why being relentless is everything:
"What I think people like Zuckerburg or Musk or Jeff Bezos at Amazon have in common is that they’re relentless. They don’t stop. Every day, they start over, do more, get better at it. People often ask whether Facebook was just a fluke, in the right place at the right time.
But I think the more you get to know Mark or founders like him, the less plausible it becomes. And that’s, in part, because you can see how hard he works, how much planning it was, how much of a vision there was from the very beginning."
“Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy.”
-Dale Carnegie
Thiel is right to argue that Schmitt and Machiavelli saw human nature as inherently problematic and prone to violence. This anthropological pessimism lies at the core of political realism. The contradiction is that a libertarian embraces this diagnosis while simultaneously seeking to undermine the very institutions that political realism regards as essential for containing human conflict and preventing disorder.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp says Peter Thiel is so misunderstood in Europe that Germany effectively lost their most successful investor:
"I think the treatment of Peter is atrocious."
"I think the question historically one would have asked in Germany is: can we afford this? Can we afford not to learn from this person?"
"The German tech scene should be #2 in the world by any historical standard. Honestly, the German tech scene was the #1 in the world, so #2 is already, like, maybe shouldn't be the aspiration."
"It's on no one's list."
" The largest company in Germany by market cap, I think, is Siemens, and Palantir is significantly larger, even where we're obviously undervalued currently."
"I've known Peter Since we were poor students at Stanford. We had conversations as poor students fighting about intellectual things. He was always heterodox right. I was always heterodox left. I don't think much has changed. He's still heterodox right, meaning he's very frustrating to classic Republicans."
"He's never been a neocon. He actually does not really believe in classic Republican economic theory. He was the first person to flag and will always flag—you tend to have people on the right basically explaining all problems as the result of capitalism not being driven far enough."
" That's just not Peter's view."
"He's not a simplistic or a caricature thinker on the right. And he's definitely not the caricature that the left wants to present."
"But what's fascinating to me is—why is it so important to spend so much time blocking Peter from the German market?"
"It's so obviously thin what they're saying about him, what they say about Palantir, so obviously doesn't make sense on the merits. You only need 10 minutes, 5 minutes on Google to see this isn't true."
Cyan Banister (@cyantist) says the two people that inspire her the most are Peter Thiel and @pmarca:
"I always joke that I didn't go to university. I went to Peter Thiel University."
"I've never met anyone more tolerant, more open-minded. He gets such a bad rap for a lot of
Japonya'nın 40 yıl önce kaybettiği şeyi, bütün dünya şimdi ona geri vermeye çalışıyor.
Kırk yıldır kimse Japonya'yı çip dünyasında ciddiye almıyordu.
Geçen hafta bu bir anda değişti.
Japonya tek kalemde 2.3 trilyon dolarlık bir çip planı açıkladı. Aynı günlerde dünyanın en büyük çip üreticisi TSMC de en ileri fabrikasını Japonya'da kurmaya başladı.
Peki neden? Neden herkes aynı anda Japonya'ya koştu?
Cevap Japonya'da değil. Çin'in tam karşısındaki küçük bir adada.
Dünyanın en gelişmiş çiplerinin neredeyse yüzde 90'ı Tayvan'da üretiliyor. Yapay zekayı eğiten en ileri çiplerde bu oran yüzde 99.
Bütün dünyanın beyni o adadan çıkıyor.
Peki bu ada neden bu kadar önemli? Çünkü ona bütün bir çağ bağlı.
Bugün Amerika'yı ayakta tutan tek şey yapay zeka.
Bir rakam bunu yeterince anlatıyor.
Amerikan ekonomisinin son dönemdeki büyümesinin yüzde 92'si tek başına yapay zekadan geldi. Yapay zekayı çıkarın, büyüme neredeyse sıfır.
Borsa da öyle. Bütün Amerikan borsasını yedi şirket taşıyor, piyasanın üçte biri onların elinde.
Amerika geleceğini de aynı yere bağladı. Çin'in ucuz işçisini yenmek için fabrikalarını robotlarla dolduracak, o robotların hepsi yapay zekayla çalışacak.
Yani Amerika'nın büyümesi de, borsası da, geleceği de yapay zekaya bağlı.
Yapay zeka çipe, çip de Tayvan'a.
Tek cümleyle: Amerika'nın bütün geleceği, Çin'in burnunun dibindeki bu adanın üstünde duruyor.
İşte Çin tam burada devreye giriyor.
O ada onun kıyısının hemen karşısında ve Çin yıllardır aynı şeyi söylüyor: "Tayvan bizimdir, gerekirse zorla alırız."
Bu sefer iş ciddi.
Amerikan istihbaratına göre Xi ordusuna açık bir emir verdi: "2027'ye kadar Tayvan'ı alabilecek güce ulaşın."
Dikkat, "işgal et" demiyor, "hazır ol" diyor. Ama bir ordunun böyle net bir tarihe kilitlenmesi bile her şeyi değiştirir.
Şimdi o günü düşünün.
Çin bir gün Tayvan'ı alıyor.
O gün Çin sadece bir ada kazanmaz. Dünyanın çip beyninin yüzde 90'ı bir anda eline geçer. Çip durur, yapay zeka durur, Amerika'nın büyümesi durur, borsası çöker.
Bunu hesaplayanlar var.
Böyle bir krizin tek bir yılda dünyaya maliyeti yaklaşık 10 trilyon dolar, küresel ekonominin neredeyse onda biri.
Yani Çin Tayvan'ı alırsa, sadece Tayvan'ı almaz. Amerika'yı da alır.
Bunun ne kadar kırılgan olduğunu iki gün önce gördük. Apple bazı modellerde 300 dolar zam yaptı.
Sebep enflasyon değildi. Yapay zeka o kadar çok çip yutuyor ki, Apple bile çipi pahalıya bulur oldu. Apple'ın patronu buna "yüz yılda bir görülen sel" dedi.
Daha ortada savaş yokken, sadece talep bunu yaptı. Bir de o adanın tamamı bir gün kapanırsa, düşünün.
İşte Amerika bu yüzden bekleyemez.
Sessizce o beyni Tayvan'dan çıkarıp daha güvenli bir yere taşıyor.
Peki neden Japonya?
Çünkü Japonya bu işi kırk yıl önce zaten yapmıştı.
Seksenlerde Japonya çok hızlı büyüyordu. Otomobilde, elektronikte, çipte, Amerika hiçbir alanda onunla yarışamıyordu.
Sonra Amerika bir anlaşmayla Japonya'nın parasını değerli kıldı. Yen pahalanınca Japon malları da pahalandı, ihracat çöktü. Üretim Japonya'da pahalı hale geldi, fabrikalar ülke dışına taşınmaya başladı.
Çip fabrikaları da onlarla birlikte gitti.
Böylece çip tahtı Japonya'dan önce Güney Kore'ye, sonra Tayvan'a geçti.
Başta o paranın neden Japonya'ya aktığını sormuştuk.
Cevap bu.
Japonya'nın 2.3 trilyonu da, TSMC'nin oraya taşınması da, hepsi tek bir şey için.
Çin Tayvan'a uzanmadan dünyanın beynini Japonya'da yeniden kurmak.
Dünyanın en büyük yatırımcılarından Ray Dalio şöyle dedi:
"Yapay zeka her şeydir. Tayvansız yapay zeka hiçbir şeydir."
Dalio'nun asıl korkutucu kısmı ise şu.
Çin'in Tayvan'ı işgal etmesine bile gerek yok. Sadece bir kuşatma tehdidi, çipi kesme ihtimali bile borsaları çökertir.
Bu savaş tek kurşun atılmadan da kazanılabilir.
Kırk yıl önce Amerika bu tacı Japonya'dan aldı. Bir düşmanı durdurmak için.
Bugün aynı tacı Japonya'ya geri veriyor. Başka bir düşmanı durdurmak için.
Değişen tek şey düşmanın adı.
Dün Japonya.
Bugün Çin.
Bu benim şahsi analizim.
Gelişmeleri takip ediyorum, sizi bilgilendireceğim.
A feature article from a major Korean media outlet says that Korea’s top young talent is increasingly looking to attend China’s elite engineering universities instead of Korean universities.
The Korean media outlet argues that the era when China copied Korean technology and recruited Korean talent is over, and that today, high-achieving Korean students preparing for college entrance exams are voluntarily knocking on the doors of Chinese universities.
Peter Thiel on DEI, woke culture, and political correctness in 1996:
“The multicultural educator at Stanford used say, ‘I started looking for racism everywhere, and I started finding racism everywhere.’ And indeed he did— if you look for anything everywhere, you will start finding it everywhere.”
“If you’re a feminist and believe everything that is longer than it is wide is a symbol of male oppression l, then you will start finding sexism everywhere.”
“When you start looking for racism everywhere, and start finding it everywhere, it’s only a small step to finding racists everywhere. There’s nothing wrong with that if the racists are really out there, but I’m going to suggest to you, they really aren’t. The problems of racism, sexism, other forms of oppression, have been vastly exaggerated, and as a result, people get unjustly accused.”
“A culture of complaint leads to a culture of blame.”
🔴 من نصائح وارن بافيت:
سر النجاح في الحياة هو ضعف المنافسة..
وأضاف بمثال بسيط:
كيف تهزم بطل الشطرنج؟
العب ضده أي لعبة.. إلا الشطرنج
الفكرة باختصار:
في الاستثمار.. لا تلاحق دائمًا الأسهم التي يركض خلفها الجميع أحيانًا الفرص الأقوى تكون في أماكن لا ينظر إليها أحد..
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