Bedugl @value_of_truth

All eyes on Lendlease. 👀 Net debt A$3.7 billion, statutory gearing 30.3%. If Lendlease runs into liquidity issues then we can expect widespread contagion.

Dr Richard Hirschson @richardhirschs1

2 months ago

Called this in 2024. Many more private credit funds will be gated in Australia in the coming years. x.com/richardhirschs…

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It’s happening

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🚨 BREAKING: ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH!! 🇯🇵 OVER ¥40,000,000,000,000 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OF THE JAPANESE STOCK MARKET IN 10 MINUTES! JAPAN IS NOW DUMPING OVER $600 BILLION IN U.S. TREASURIES, STOCKS, AND ETFS IN A DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO STOP THE COLLAPSE. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR MARKETS…

You can't make this up: At 8:15 AM ET yesterday, the 10Y Note Yield was trading at 4.68% when the US Treasury announced it would be increasing bond buybacks to $4 billion. The yield fell to a low of 4.63% as the US Treasury pledged to provide "liquidity support." Exactly 24 hours later, the 10Y Note Yield is ABOVE levels seen prior to the announcement, at 4.71%. It's going to take a lot more intervention to tame this beast.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

2 months ago

It's official. On July 31st, we called for US government intervention as long-term borrowing costs hit 2008 levels. Today, it happened. The US Treasury is DOUBLING buybacks to $4 billion per operation for "liquidity support." What comes next? Let us explain. (a thread)

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🚨 BREAKING: SOMETHING BAD IS HAPPENING IN CHINA RIGHT NOW 🇨🇳 OVER ¥450,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OF CHINESE AI STOCKS IN 20 MINUTES! THE CHINESE AI BUBBLE IS COLLAPSING, AND CHINA KEEPS DUMPING U.S. TREASURIES TO SLOW THE CRASH. THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD...

🚨 BREAKING: SOMETHING JUST BROKE IN KOREA!! 🇰🇷 OVER ₩280,000,000,000,000 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OF THE KOREAN STOCK MARKET IN 15 MINUTES! MEMORY CHIPMAKERS SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX HAVE COLLAPSED, AND THE GOVERNMENT HALTED TRADING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD…

🚨 🇺🇸 THE U.S. TREASURY JUST ADMITTED THE ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING Today the Treasury DOUBLED its buybacks of long-dated debt. From $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, starting September 9. Read that again. America is buying back its own bonds because nobody else wants. The 30-year hit 5.337% on Tuesday. Highest since 2007. This is NOT the Fed who did that. Warsh refuses to lower rates like Trump wants him to because it's a long-term crime against your own people. He is still fighting inflation and he is not coming to save the bubble. So the Treasury is doing it. But it's not a QE, they fund every single buyback by issuing MORE debt. They are not fixing the core problem. Bessent is refinancing it onto a shorter fuse. The same thing already happened to Japan. Washington and Tokyo burned $10 BILLION defending the yen. TEN BILLION DOLLARS lasted only for 2 weeks. The yen intervention was never for Japan. It was about saving US. Japan holds the Treasuries. If the yen breaks, Japan sells. That is the only reason Washington ever cared. And China is already done selling. Their Treasury holdings just hit an 18-YEAR LOW while they been buying gold non-stop for 3 years. K-shaped economy at its peak 99% of the population still has no idea how fucked this is.

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日本銀行が準備している措置は、数十億の人々の生活に影響を与えるでしょう。 西側諸国の皆様、深くお詫び申し上げます。 これは個人的な問題ではありません。 神のご加護がありますように。

🚨 GLOBAL BOND MARKETS ARE IMPLODING The US, Japan, South Korea, France and the UK are all seeing their bond yields reach multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, rising inflation expectations could push central banks to raise interest rates again. It’s happening.

Ray Dalio: We are past the point of no return.

🚨🇯🇵🇺🇸 URGENT: BANK OF JAPAN IS PREPARING TO SELL $620 BILLION OF US STOCKS, BONDS, & ETFS TO SUPPORT THE YEN ACCORDING TO REPORT⚠️

🚨 WASHINGTON SOLD EUROS TO BUY JAPANESE YEN IN ONE OF THE RAREST MARKET INTERVENTIONS WE HAVE EVER SEEN THE U.S. IS NOW ACTING AS THE BANK OF JAPAN THIS CONFIRMS THAT THE REVERSE CARRY TRADE UNWIND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATING TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN CHEAP YEN-FUNDED POSITIONS ARE NOW AT RISK OF BEING VIOLENTLY LIQUIDATED MARKETS WILL FREEZE, RISK ASSETS WILL CASCADE LOWER, AND THE LOSSES WILL BE BRUTAL WASHINGTON WOULD NEVER TAKE SUCH AN EXTREME STEP UNLESS IT WAS CERTAIN THE REVERSAL WAS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW THIS IS HOW THE 2008 CRISIS BEGAN THIS TIME IT WILL BE TEN TIMES WORSE THIS IS NO LONGER A WARNING. THE UNWIND HAS ALREADY STARTED

🚨 WARREN BUFFET WARNS THAT THE US DOLLAR IS ON THE BRINK OF TOTAL COLLAPSE He’s sitting on a record $380 BILLION IN CASH, not investing a single dollar because he says the stock market has turned into a CHURCH WITH A CASINO ATTACHED and he no longer understands what’s happening. “I understand fewer of the businesses as a percentage of the whole than I did 10 years ago.” When asked if a catastrophic market crash is coming, he chillingly replied: “IF YOU SAW IT COMING, IT WOULDN’T HAPPEN.” This is the same man who built Berkshire Hathaway into a $1 trillion empire… and now he’s preparing for the worst financial disaster of our lifetime. He effectively warned about creditors losing confidence on the U.S. Treasuries. And guess what… Yuto also revealed that Bank Of Japan discussed a worst-case scenario where dollar loses its reserve status due to loss of creditor’s trust. Japan dumping their U.S. Treasuries holdings would trigger that catastrophe.

Yuto 🇯🇵 @yutokanzakireal

3 months ago

日本銀行は身動きが取れず、 日本銀行は最悪のシナリオについて議論した。 ドルの暴落、あるいは基軸通貨としての地位の喪失は、世界恐慌をはるかに凌駕する事態を引き起こす可能性がある。 日本と米国は、現在の体制を何としても守ろうとするだろう。

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What’s happening in the bond market should scare the ever living shit out of you, your pastor, your mistress’ dog walker, the dog itself, the dog’s Instagram manager, your cardiologist who’s about to have his own event, your cardiologist’s cardiologist, the sommelier at Per Se who just spilled a $4,000 Burgundy after glancing at his 401(k), every Goldman MD who told his kid “bonds are the boring safe part,” those kids now at Deerfield learning what “collateral call” means, your local zoning board, your local zoning board’s mistress, the appraiser who valued your neighbor’s house at $2.4M last spring, that same appraiser now driving Uber, the guy who wrote the “New Neutral” thesis, his editor, his editor’s editor, PIMCO’s entire Newport Beach parking lot, every family office analyst under 30 who’s never seen a real bear steepener, every family office analyst over 60 who’s seen too many and is currently day-drinking Sancerre at the Yale Club, the Yale Club sommelier — same guy, second job now, the entire concept of “term premium,” which we brought back like a Marvel character nobody asked for, Bill Ackman’s Twitter fingers, Bill Ackman’s Twitter fingers’ Twitter fingers, every CIO who wrote “we like the belly of the curve” in a Q2 letter, the belly of the curve, currently in the ICU, the ICU’s billing department, the ICU billing department’s collections agency now factoring receivables at 14%, your uncle who’s been screaming about hyperinflation since 2011 and is finally right for the wrong reason, your other uncle who’s been screaming about deflation since 2011 and is somehow also right, both uncles at Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving itself, canceled, every Bogle disciple who “stayed the course” straight into a 30% drawdown on TLT, the Bogleheads forum mods currently deleting posts, every insurance company that used the word “matching” in a footnote, every actuary who assumed “mean reversion,” mean reversion, sending regrets, the entire municipal bond desk at any bank you’ve heard of, the muni desk’s HR department, the HR department’s severance budget, David Rosenberg refreshing his own newsletter, Jeff Gundlach’s PowerPoint remote, Jamie Dimon’s letter to shareholders — the version he had to rewrite Sunday night, the ghostwriter who rewrote it, Larry Fink’s teleprompter, the teleprompter operator now updating his LinkedIn, every “duration is your friend” tweet from 2023, currently being quote-tweeted with a laughing emoji, every “cash is trash” clip on YouTube, the algorithm surfacing them at exactly the wrong moment, and finally — you, because you scrolled this far and still haven’t checked what the 30-year did today. Rates don’t care about your narrative. Or your allocation. Or your uncle. Or your uncle’s other uncle.

Barchart @Barchart

2 months ago

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield hits 5.30% for the first time since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis 🤯 👀

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BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US 30Y bond yield just hit 5.29%, its highest level since June 2007. Last time the 30Y yield was this high, the US economy entered a recession, and the stock market crashed 57%.

CRASH IN JAPAN 🚨 ¥18.8 TRILLION ($120 billion) wiped from Japanese stocks today. It's happening.

BREAKING: 🇨🇳 China's 5Y bond yield crashed 7% today and hit a 20-month low. The 5Y yield is now just 2.5 bps away from hitting a record low. While other bond markets are selling off, investors are pouring money into Chinese bonds.

🚨 GLOBAL BOND MARKETS ARE IMPLODING 🇫🇷 France's 30Y bond yield hit 4.855% this week, its highest level since the 2008 Financial crisis. After the US, Japan, Korea, and the UK, France is moving towards a bond crisis too.

The AI bubble is far worse than I thought... Nvidia is reportedly on the hook for $5 T worth of circular financing loans for its customers Keep in mind, at the height of this bubble $NVDA's fiscal 2026 earnings is only $120 B 2000 bubble on steroids The math ain't mathing....

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

2 months ago

So... AI hyperscalers are totally broke and their free-cash-flow just turned negative. What could possibly go wrong with that $3 trillion worth of off-book, hidden SPV debt Nvidia... HT @TruthTaz

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BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Japanese 5Y bond yield hits 2.17% today, a 31-year high. Bonds are trading like meme stocks right now.