VilleV @veelayvice
Helsinki, Finland Joined April 2011-
Tweets34
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Following405
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@Tanja_WK @vontuchman mutta Q&A:ssä Waller totesi että jos PCE:stä poistetaan portfolio mgmt feet, core PCE näyttää alhaisemmalta. lähes puolet heinäkuun MoM on tulee portfolio mgmt fee kategoriasta, jonka BEA aikoo syyskuussa tarkistaa pois laskennasta. Heinäkuun Core PCE 0,246 MoM, 0,11 tuli siitä.
@Tanja_WK @vontuchman St. Louisin keskuspankin 18. elokuuta julkaisema malli viittaa siihen on ilmeisesti tasaantunut maaliskuun jälkeen. stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…
@vontuchman @Tanja_WK Filosofisessa keskustelussa, inf momentum tärkeämpi kuin taso. Hawk/dove rankingissä Waller neutraali (usein dove) –> ehkä ääniä ei riitä nostolle (7/12). Wallerin näkemyksiä usein kuunnellaan ja aika näyttää onko hän jonkun lainen johtava indikaattori.
@Roinikainen @Huopainen Jep suojauksista kun tehty 2022-2023. Ihan perusteltua suojata puolet 10 miljardin hankintoja. Kävi huono tuuri että Saksa joutui poistamaan velkajarrun. vm.fi/-/valuuttasuoj…
@vontuchman En ole vakuuttunut että muuttuu teoksi. corePCE datan perusteella nostaminen pitäis olla selvää. Jos saadaan avg 0,17 MoM corePCE lukuja, YoY on 3% dec26. Valkoisen talon/US trsy:illa ja Warshilla tarveristiriita. EhkäWarsh on USA:n Lagarde.
@vontuchman Mielestäni mielenkiintoinen vaan siksi koska Warsh on puhunut siitä julkisesti. Eli Fedi olisi passiivinen. Ei se inflaatio tavoitetta saa muutettua ilman komitean konsensusta. Edellisessä inflaatio shokissa siirrettiin maalitolppia (core pce less housing etc)
@vontuchman Jollain tavalla normit muuttuvat. On se tulli systeemi hankalaa sovittaa yhteen Gcc maihin mutta moni napaisessa maailmassa joku viisas joskus sanoi ”there are no friends or enemies only interests”
@vontuchman Ollaan epämukavassa tilanteessa diilin suhteen. Mutta TankerTrackers julkaisi mielenkiintoisen kommentin, joka vahvistaa Bessentin antamia lausuntoja (Iranin öljykentät menee kiinni muutamassa päivässä). lets see x.com/TankerTrackers…
To prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space at Kharg Island, Iran has brought NASHA (9079107) out of retirement. She's a 30yo VLCC that's been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5–2 days. #OOTT
@vontuchman Olisi looginen. Hyvän tahdon eleenä neuvotteluiden ajaksi.
@vontuchman Saarto oli nerokasta. painostaa iranin neuvottelupöytään, sillä WSJ:n mukaan menettävät 400mio usd per päivä ja pakottaa iranin öljykentät sulkuun 2vk kuluessa. hauskinta on jos uraaninrikastamisen keskeytys on sama mitä obama sai aikaiseksi (10v JCPOA)
@vontuchman Markkinat näkee, ettei osapuolet ole valmiita menemään loppuun asti. Iranilla myös isot insenttiivit saada tankkerit liikkeelle, sillä jos ei ole stabiileja, ne voi unohtaa tullimaksut. Tankkerit jo liikkui ennen tulitaukoa, vaikka vähäistä oli.
@vontuchman Alkaa olla yleistietoa että Iran kontrolloi SoH. USA ei ole valmistautunut pitkäkestoiseen hyökkäykseen. Moni kertoo ilmatorjunta varastot olevan vähissä (rheinmetall tj, FT, think tankit). Eiköhän tankkerit liiku iranin tullimaksulla ja ”neuvotellaan”
@vontuchman Warshin nimitys todennäköisesti johtaa Umpikujaan. Jos ei lopeta JP:n rikostutkinnan cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/12…
@vontuchman Mätänen TACO. Öljymarkkinan häiriöt tulee olemaan liaan suuria jos jatkuu toista viikkoa. Samaan aikaan riskinä ettei Iran hyväksy
@vontuchman Jotta tämä jatkuisi, Fedille pitää hinnoitella lisää laskuja tai ekp:lle nostoja. EURvahvuus vahingoittaa vientiä ja inflaatiota laskeva. Trump/uusi Fedin johtaja haluaa alempia korkoja, mutta jos painamme tällästä BKT-kasvua, koronlaskuille on vaikea löytää Fedissä konsensusta
@vontuchman Dovish argumentit ei ole 100 % oikeita (waller), mutta enemmän painoarvoa ja lähtökohta monpol rajoittavalla alueella. tariffiinflaatio vaikutus ei näytä olevan lineaarinen. ja palkkainflaation hidastuminen (indeed, AHE, ECI) ei sovi yhteen pelkän tarjontapuolen tarinan kanssa
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