Independent quantitative research practice examining markets, risk, probability and decision making under uncertaintyvividrange.io London, EnglandJoined July 2026
Open the hands you can stand behind
#poker#pokerstrategy #pokerthoery #microstakes
Most players pick an opening range based on their favorite poker training website or historical lore, habit, mood, whatever worked last time. Then somebody 3-bets, and the table finds out what the range was actually made of.
Take ATo under the gun. It looks good. Ace, ten, solid enough, and plenty of people open it without a second thought. Now the button re-raises. What’s the plan? It’s too weak to 4-bet and too dominated to call, so it folds, and the 2.5 big blinds it put in go to the other side. Do that often enough and it stops being bad luck. The range was built wrong.
The usual habit is to open more, because folding is dull and the blinds keep coming. I think that has the order backwards. Start at the other end of the hand. Which hands would you happily continue with once someone re-raises, either by 4-betting or by calling? Those are the hands you get to open. The rest were never really in the range. They were just sitting in it.
What comes out is a tight range. “Tight is right” is a cliche, The better reason is that in the micro-stakes games, where the pool calls raises like they cost nothing, a hand with no answer to a 3-bet is a hand that leaks.
Position changes the answer, which is why the range shouldn’t change seat by seat. It should change by situation, and there are only three that matter. Out of position, early, you’re opening the hands that can take a 3-bet and still know what to do next, roughly one hand in ten. In position, you can call a re-raise and play the rest of the hand with the advantage, so the range opens up to about one in five. From the small blind, with only the big blind left to act, it’s raise or fold, and a bit under a quarter of hands qualify. Three charts, no limping, no “I’ll just see a flop with this one.”
Does it cost some chips? Yes. You’ll fold hands that would have shown a profit as opens, and now and then you’ll watch one of them flop the nuts in someone else’s pot. It'll smart a little, because it’s cheaper than the alternative.
The obvious objection is that anyone who has looked at a solver already thinks this way. True, and irrelevant. Open any $0.02 table and count how many players have a plan for the 3-bet before they raise. The idea isn’t new, its just that almost nobody uses it, and that's where an edge sits.
Open what you can defend. Fold the rest before somebody charges you to.
@JonathanLittle Variance determines results in the short term, Good decisions are the expectation. One tourney maybe, but over a large enough dataset, decision quantity trumps variance.
WSOP 1981.
This footage is pure #poker gold. 😂
A dude in a top hat, a Canadian Mountie, and a commentator who appears to be learning the rules as he goes.
And in the middle of this circus? One of the greatest card players who ever lived.
youtu.be/7UXqkhouMI8#WSOP
I don’t recommend the “either fire all three streets or don’t start”
You’re assuming villain is actually processing range pressure street by street. A lot of low-stakes players aren’t doing that. Even the seasoned players are on 6 tables and playing face up.
They call the flop because they’ve got a pair.
call the turn because they got a draw.
Flop and turn bets can still be profitable without committing yourself to blasting the river.
Not “giving up river” is blindly deciding on the flop that because you started telling a story, you now have to finish it regardless of runout, or the villain’s actions.
Against players who genuinely overfolds rivers, barrel away. Against the dude who just called two streets with bottom pair and now gets a card that completes, I’m happy to stop a story and fold.
Low stakes is watching what the other bloke repeatedly doing.
TT facing a ~125bb back-jam.
Against an unknown or a TAG, I'd fold.
Against this player? He’d been crazy shoving all over the table, so his range was nothing like an unknown’s.
I call.
AKo.
TT isn't my standard shove call.
But player tendencies change ranges.
#Poker#PokerTwitter #PokerStrategy
I’m not really sure what I’m defending 🤡 I guess the point I’m trying to convey is with AA on a missed flop all you have is top pair, regardless if you 3-bet to 24bb or called a limper. Stations will call your 3 bet with 72o. I dont apply fixed rules - Must / must not - each situation is unique
@preki79ks@Choppodong1 If you’re vs stations they’ll call anything, so why not build the pot when you have additional information and it’s worth investing in - eg postflop!
My point was raising over limpers to “punish” them often just builds a big pot with a hand that falls apart once the flop comes and you are out of position against several callers.
The hand looks fine before the cards are dealt. After that, a lot of boards leave you guessing, and the money is already in the middle.
Same problem shows up anywhere a position looks strong until the path changes. No fixed good or bad advice, is subjective to the board texture.
The multiway trap with AJo isn’t dumb at all it’s a situation where the average looks solid but the tail grows teeth fast. Raising to ‘punish’ limpers often builds pots your hand can’t realise equity in when the board turns Nasty. Same fragility I model across poker and order books. What’s the repeated call you’re making here?
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