David Yapp @yapp_david
Patience | Determination | Equanimity Joined November 2017-
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Historically, October is the most volatile month for the stock market: Since 1945, S&P 500 volatility in October has been +33% above the average for the other 11 months. The next closest month is January, with volatility +16% above average. October is also typically the…
It’s clearly a challenging environment for breakout plays. A number of setups are failing before they even get the chance to move through their pivots. Historically, September has been the worst month of the year for stocks, but we didn’t experience that seasonality this year.…
This market is starting to feel like early 1999, where the indexes ran up on fewer and fewer names. Of course, 99 saw one of the biggest rallies in history on the Nasdaq. And then, it wasn't so pretty afterward. Historically, I tend to get cautious early. My hope is that we get…
The Circle of Life
Institutional investors are becoming more bullish: The average funding spread jumped ~20 basis points over the last several days to its highest level since December 2024. This gauge measures institutional demand for long stock exposure through futures, options, and swaps. The…
Moody's on a US recession: The probability of a recession within the next 12 months jumped to 48% in August, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. This is according to Moody’s Analytics’ leading economic indicator, which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model.…
The Fed is now officially cutting rates with the S&P 500 at a record high. The last 20 times this happened, the S&P 500 rose an average of +13.9% over the next 12 months, per Carson. Near-term volatility will persist, with 50% of cases resulting in negative 1-month returns.
Fed cutting rates when markets are within 1% of ATH produces an average return of 15% over the next 12 months, with a100% hit rate: JPMorgan
JP Morgan on Fed rate cuts this morning: When the Fed cuts rates with the S&P 500 within 1% of an all time high, it results in an average return of +15% over the next 12 months. Furthermore, according to our research, 1-month performance is more spotty, with stocks ending lower…
We came, we saw, we conquered. Millions hit central London in a show of patriotic unity like nothing seen before. A cultural revolution has begun. The future belongs to us. This one is for you Charlie Kirk 🙏🏻
Today, we set the foundations for a cultural revolution. Millions of freedom loving patriots flooded the streets of England's capital as one. And what a beautiful sight it was. United we stand, divided we fall.
Rate cuts at record highs: In 20 out of the last 20 times that the Fed has cut rates with the S&P 500 at record highs, stocks ended higher 12 months later. In fact, the S&P 500 rallied an average of 13.9% over the next 12 months, according to Carson Research. However, in 11…
Rate cuts at record highs: In 20 out of the last 20 times that the Fed has cut rates with the S&P 500 at record highs, stocks ended higher 12 months later. In fact, the S&P 500 rallied an average of 13.9% over the next 12 months, according to Carson Research. However, in 11…
This is the best example of how traders are just chasing momentum while grossly mispricing every other factor impacting the value of a security. French government just collapsed, meanwhile traders have been buying French debt no stop for over a week heading into that 🤦🏻♂️
This is the best example of how traders are just chasing momentum while grossly mispricing every other factor impacting the value of a security. French government just collapsed, meanwhile traders have been buying French debt no stop for over a week heading into that 🤦🏻♂️ https://t.co/dLs0ZSv1CJ
WW3? French Hospitals Told To Prepare For A "Major Military Engagement" Within Six Months zerohedge.com/geopolitical/w…
BREAKING: The UK's 30-Year Yield officially crosses above 5.70% for the first time since April 1998. Despite the Bank of England cutting rates FIVE times in 12 months, yields are soaring. When you have higher rates with rate cuts, something is seriously wrong.
BREAKING: The UK's 30-Year Yield officially crosses above 5.70% for the first time since April 1998. Despite the Bank of England cutting rates FIVE times in 12 months, yields are soaring. When you have higher rates with rate cuts, something is seriously wrong. https://t.co/nAgWNh7pQ3
🚨CRYPTO’S WILDEST STORY: DEV FAKES HIS OWN DEATH, RUGS HIS OWN COIN Jeffy Yu built Zerebro, an AI-driven crypto that once hit $800M+. As it crashed, he livestreamed what looked like his suicide, the community mourned, tributes poured in. Days later, a “memorial” token…
The UK's bond market is collapsing: Today, the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK rose to 5.64%, its highest level since 1998. Yields in the UK are now 15 TIMES higher than they were at the 2020 low, just 5 years ago. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)
In case you don’t realize what’s happening: The Fed is about to start cutting rates into stagflation. That means rate cuts into rising inflation with a weakening labor market. If you don’t own assets, you will be left in the dust.
SOFTBANK GROUP TO INVEST $2B IN INTEL CORP
1. Stocks: all-time high 2. Home Prices: all-time high 3. Bitcoin: all-time high 4. Gold: all-time high 5. Money Supply: all-time high 6. National Debt: all-time high 7. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target" 8. Fed: cutting interest rates next month
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