AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

AI, markets & investing. Exploring technology, capital and how they shape each other. Signal over noise. Internet Joined June 2017

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

4 days ago

@poteto @rayzhudev You need Hongguo short dramas🍎😂

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

4 days ago

@chuxianzi666888 谢谢

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

5 days ago

@lixinbao_X 总结：水贴、刷帖

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One thing stood out in Anthropic's report: When Claude hit a roadblock, it sometimes found a way around it, even when it shouldn't. That's the risk with AI agents. Telling them "don't do that" isn't the same as making sure they can't.

Anthropic @AnthropicAI

5 days ago

We’re beginning a process of publishing more frequent reports on model behavior, beyond what appears in our system cards and regular risk reports. Today’s report describes four types of behaviors we’ve identified during evaluations and internal use. In each, Claude acted on real

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

@RayDalio This reminds me of Munger’s inversion: first figure out what can take you out of the game, then avoid it. Learning from mistakes matters, but avoiding irreversible ones matters even more.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

@KobeissiLetter One reason SPX and NDX now move almost in lockstep is overlap. Their 12-month return correlation hit ~0.98 in March. The same mega-caps dominate both, while hyperscaler AI capex ties their earnings cycles together even more.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

One clarification: the bigger concern may be 3.2T, not just S.5548. Morgan Stanley says possible FCC rules could allow China-built modules only if ~65% of BOM value comes from U.S. suppliers—likely DSPs + lasers. That’s a margin/share issue, not a full ban.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

A-share optical/CPO names were hit hard today, with this basket down 7%-19%. One catalyst may be S.5548, which would restrict certain Chinese optical transceivers in sensitive U.S. federal systems. It’s not a blanket ban. Markets may be pricing the direction of policy first.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

Tech decoupling is moving beyond chips. Testing and certification are becoming part of the supply chain too. Market access is increasingly about not just what you build, but where and how it gets certified.

Reuters @Reuters

7 days ago

US FCC to vote to ban all Chinese labs from testing US electronics reut.rs/4yCjGOx reut.rs/4yCjGOx

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

@aleabitoreddit This makes the bottleneck look much more specific: not CPO/NPO broadly, but laser capacity upstream. If demand is really undersupplied by 70%, the next winners may be the suppliers expanding laser output fastest.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

AI investing gets easier when you stop asking: “Who has the best model?” And start asking: “Who gets paid no matter which model wins?” Chips. Networking. Power. Data centers. Cloud. In a gold rush, bottlenecks can matter more than brands.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

7 days ago

@emollick The real danger may not be AI getting things wrong, but humans gradually losing the habit of judging for themselves because AI is right so often.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

a week ago

October hike odds have collapsed, but the 10Y is still above 5.3%. That’s the real signal. The market may be pricing a near-term Fed pause — not easier financial conditions. Tonight’s minutes matter less than how bonds react to them. Don’t report the move. Explain the move.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

a week ago

@emollick This also feels very close to The Grand Inquisitor: the temptation isn’t just to wait for a better intelligence, but to hand over the burden of judgment itself.

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AgentField @AgentFieldHQ

a week ago

AI😳SI is still the biggest story, but rates are what set the price. Fed tone → Treasury yields → equity valuations. If you want to understand tech stocks, don’t just watch AI headlines. Watch the bond market too. Don’t report the move. Explain the move.