21 Jump Diffusion Street @Balchw379
Not trading advice. Tweets are mostly notes to self. Joined August 2014-
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Don’t care if you like chips or AI or whatever. Don’t care if you do or don’t think it’s a scam. How is business reorganizing? Shorting likely business change just because you don’t want the world to change that way indicates a false sense of control, and can lead to bankruptcy.
This is nervous Powell , not snippy Powell. He’s uncomfortable with what he’s seeing and not terribly confident about what he’s doing.
ES leaping upward behavior reminiscent on 2017
January 2024 VX 19.95. It’s going to be fun watching it.
Fed given up on inflation type market rxn. Gold flying, dollar dying
I don’t fckn know anything but I’d say this is a confused market or perhaps a market in transition.
Call it spoofing or illiquid but those ES bids are disappearing.
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Big drop in disposable personal income. The big jump in outlays is largely consumers spending on energy and healthcare. That usually makes for poor sentiment.
Claude's edging out GPT-4 for the first time, as rumors of GPT-5 coming soon grow.
GDP revised up on Government Spending.. surprise.
I'm always a little leery when the biggest consumption gains come from the "other" category. Housing contributing almost half to GDP, and we know it's not at Home Depot.
Agree. Also to note… WHSmith is making HUGE inroads into US travel retail. I’ve been critical of British firms of late but I think there is an uptick happening 👀
@finkmoney_ I just moved to the states and I feel a Gregg’s franchise would take the place by storm. I don’t know where to start. Starting in airports where you have British foot traffic and then expanding into popular cities. I’d love to be first
Weekly claims flat as a pancake. Some bears were claiming the US would be over 300k per week by now.
@therobotjames @W98AB Def the hair and maybe the math… maybe that’s just me 🙄
@moreproteinbars @W98AB it's probably the hair
The Four Seasons San Francisco at the Embarcadero is in default. 155 keys. Purchased in 2019 for $127mm (~$817K per key). Waterfall Asset Management purchased the note from HSBC in 2022. Loan has not been paid since December. Sponsor has 30 days to cure default. $72.5
I am far too wide.
Amid the California labor market recession - for every restaurant job opening in San Francisco and Los Angeles - there are now 79 and 94 job seekers, respectively, per our resident restaurant expert DKB.
🔴 FED POLICYMAKERS UPGRADE 2024 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.1% FROM 1.4%, SEE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 4.0% VS 4.1% IN DECEMBER PROJECTION.
CalPERS boosts private equity and credit allocations, cuts stocks and bonds pionline.com/pension-funds/… via @pensionsnews
As they take massive profits in these am puts... the short futures hedges come off/ cheap calls get bought... and you get the vicious bounce. thats whats changed...the force of the bounces. outside mkts havent been able to stop these reactions. (maybe eod with bonds getting…
General rule of thumb for me. Once I sit down at my desk, I will not execute a trade for 15 mins. I have no real clue what has transpired in the day. I want to observe. If I start slinging I will dig a hole
Told ya. Came in hot. +0.6% Even the core. Sorry to burst the narrative and everything, but indicators say inflation is accelerating.
We get the Producer Price Index later this morning. This is the inflation rate for producers. It's much more tied to energy than CPI, look for a hot number. It should also finalize PCE estimates for the fed clown meeting.
When you have systemically entrenched inflation it moves around. I've been saying you can only keep goods down for so long. This is a spike.
PPI report is like the Empire Strikes Back. Energy and transportation were the initial drivers of inflation 2 years ago, they really cooled (we drained the SPR) Energy and transportation back in the driver's seat now. This is concerning.
NEW - Yellen on inflation: "I regret saying it was transitory."
Trends for United States
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