Insights and research on emerging markets from Capital Economics. Subscribe: http://t.co/iC7hixhPsC Follow our other accounts: http://t.co/ClNpr54tEMcapitaleconomics.com London, EnglandJoined May 2015
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Over the past month we've published on China's power cuts, dev debt, the 10y property outlook, decoupling, port backlogs, mon pol...
If you're an economist and interested in these issues, we'd like to hear from you. (Role is in Singapore)
capitaleconomics.com/careers/
In @InquirerBiz’s poll, only Capital Economics’ @ghleather77’s September inflation forecast (an outlier because the majority projected 5-5.2%) was correct.
We're on Substack! Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is sharing his weekly note via a new Substack newsletter, starting with this week’s take on the problems associated with the highly polarised global debate about inflation’s return. capitaleconomics.substack.com
For China’s export sector, the rise in demand for facemasks, webcams and the like in response to the pandemic has almost entirely offset the collapse in global demand for everything else. Extraordinary (though it probably won't last).
Two distinct trends in China this past week: Infection numbers are improving. Economic numbers are not. Passenger traffic is down 84% y/y, car sales 92%, cinema tickets 99% property sales 83%.
Plenty of data though. Charts here: capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-e…
We've just published our latest outlook. After abrupt slowdowns in 2019, growth in many EMs will pick up this year. But recoveries will be weaker than many are anticipating. And we think that growth in China will slow as property construction cools. capitaleconomics.com/publications/e…
3 Key Takeaways from our 2050 World #GDP Rankings: 1) China fails to overtake the US as the world's largest economy. 2) Indonesia, India & Philippines leap up the rankings. 3) Italy drops out of the top 10. #worldin2050
See our Long Term Global Outlook: bit.ly/2T7Zjrw
Countries in Africa and Emerging Asia are set to be worst, and most quickly, affected by climate change. This adds to other structural headwinds that many EMs face in the coming decades.
Read more in our Global Economics Focus here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/g…
The November #PMIs point to diverging prospects for EM manufacturers. Conditions appear to be improving in Emerging Asia but deteriorating in Emerging Europe. #EMchartoftheday
See more here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/e…
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key rate at 13.50% today, preferring instead to use unconventional measures to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these policies will fail, prompting a rate cut in late 2020.
See more here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/a…
Data from @Hacienda_Arg show that Argentina's government owe over $60bn next year. We expect haircuts on some local-law debt and international bonds. Average recovery values are likely to be around 50%. #EMchartoftheday
See more here (paywall): capitaleconomics.com/publications/l…
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