DiffEdge @DiffEdgeRT
Joined September 2025-
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@__paleologo Yes, agreed. I guess one could have a sub market with more sophisticated investors and in the equilibrium you are suggesting you will likely have retail investors (for most of which this is similar to gambling) and manipulators in the more manipulable markets.
The problem with that "asset class" is a dynamic similar in logic to Goodhart's Law. As a bet becomes more liquid and popular, it creates more of an incentive for manipulation of the outcome.
Sometimes I read that Kalshi is just emulating the “financialization” leading to 2008, or Enron’s vision. I think it is substantively different from both, but closer to the securitization of the decade prior to 2008. The only similarity is in that they create new tradable
One solution is regulation, but regulating it in a similar way to insider trading and market manipulation in stock markets is unachievable for many of the bets available currently.
The problem with that "asset class" is a dynamic similar in logic to Goodhart's Law. As a bet becomes more liquid and popular, it creates more of an incentive for manipulation of the outcome.
Sometimes I read that Kalshi is just emulating the “financialization” leading to 2008, or Enron’s vision. I think it is substantively different from both, but closer to the securitization of the decade prior to 2008. The only similarity is in that they create new tradable contingent claims. But there are differences in their (Kalshi’s) role (as opposed to banks or Enron), and in the type of contracts. There are lots of different potential big problems and big benefits. It’s very good that they be discussed now. The actual design of a pure states-of-the-world contingent claims market is an economist’s wet dream. I hope to see more analyses. Not helpful to make lazy analogies or take unconditional sides. [I am still aiming for that job at the Bolshoi, though.]
The co-founder of Kalshi says: " The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion."
@AltcoinDaily No arguments whatsoever. Keep taking investing advice from someone who "believes it with his heart"...
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