Senior Economist at ICIS. Former NABE president. Author of “A History of American Business Cycles”. Views are my own. E: [email protected] Charlotte, NCJoined September 2016
US existing home sales eased 0.2% to a 4.00-million-unit pace in August. Dales rose in the Midwest and West but retreated in the Northeast and South. Inventories of homes for sale fell 1.3% to 1.53 million. Months’ supply was stable at a near normal 4.6 months.
Despite production edging up, headline capacity utilization for all industry was stable at 77.4% in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
US industrial production rose 0.1% in August, partially offsetting a 0.4% decline in July. Mining output moved up 0.9% percent while that for utilities decreased 2.0%. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% in August after edging down 0.1% in July.
During August, retail sales rose 0.6% and follows a solid 0.7% gain in July. Gains across segments were widespread. There was weakness in furniture & home furnishing stores, health & personal care stores, department stores, and miscellaneous retailers.
After a surprise 0.1% decline in the PPI yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that CPI rose a larger-than-expected 0.4% in August. The shelter component was the largest factor in this gain.
Something is amiss in the Windy City. The Chicago PMI declined a larger-than-expected 5.6 points to 41.5 in August. This marks the 21st month of a contractionary reading.
If I was limited to one chart to illustrate the state of the US economy this would be it. Industrial production edged down, largely due to weather. Non-farm payrolls edged up, real personal income less transfer payments featured a solid gain, and business sales improved.
Real consumer spending rose an expected 0.3% in July, an improvement from the 0.1% rise in June, and a 0.2% set-back in May. Spending rose sharply for durable goods and also rose for non-durable goods and services. Real consumer spending was up 2.1% y/y. Americans love to shop!
The Kansas City Fed reported that during August its composite index of current conditions was unchanged at 1 in August. Production ticked up from -3 to 0 and the employment index increased modestly
from -11 to 0.
Our fourth regional Fed survey for August manufacturing and it was soft. The Richmond Fed reported that Fifth District manufacturing activity remained soft in August. The composite manufacturing index rose to -7 in August from -20 in July. This is still in negative territory.
New homes sales, after rebounding in June, edged down 0.6% to a 652K-unit-pace in July. Sales in the Midwest and South were soft and sales in the West improved. Sales in the Northeast were flat. The inventory of homes for sale also edged down. Inventories remain high.
Our second regional Fed manufacturing survey for August and it was slightly negative. The Philadelphia Fed reported that manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month. The current general activity index fell 16.4 points to a slightly negative -0.3 reading.
US existing home sales rose 2.0% to a 4.01-million-unit pace in July. Sales rose in the Northeast, South, and West but declined in the Midwest. During the month, the inventory of homes for sale rose to 1.55 million units, a 4.6 months’ supply at the current sales pace.
The housing report was mixed with housing surprising to the upside, reaching a 1.43-million-unit pace in July. But the gain was largely centered in multi-family housing. Moreover, building permits declined for a fourth month.
industrial production (IP) eased 0.1% in July, missing expectations of a flat reading but following an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in June. At 104.0% of its 2017 average, total IP in July was 1.4% y/y. Manufacturing output was unchanged after a 0.3% gain in June.
Headline capacity utilization for industry moved down 0.2 points to 77.5% in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. During July, operating rates fell in manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Retail sales rose 0.7% in July and follow a 0.9% gain in June. The largest increases were seen in sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers and furniture & home furniture stores.
Our first regional Fed survey for August manufacturing and it was positive. The New York Fed reported that business activity rose modestly in New York during August with the headline general business conditions index rising 6.4 points to +11.9. New orders and shipments increased.
The consumer price index increased 0.2% in July, a pace right in line with expectations and the same as last month. This follows a 0.3% rise in June, and over the last 12 months, headline CPI increased 2.7% y/y. Shelter prices rose 0.2% during July and energy prices declined.
NFIB reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose a larger than expected 1.7 points to 100.3 in July, its highest in five months. The index remains above its 52-year average of 98.
142K Followers 1K FollowingCompounding. Economy & politics, investing, charts and irony. No investment advice. Watch out impersonators. I’m not on Threads, Telegram, Bluesky, Facebook etc
132K Followers 4K FollowingHead of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts
Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research
(tweets = not advice)
NOTE: I will never DM you -- beware of scammers.
28K Followers 237 FollowingCycle risk is investment risk. We partner with clients to anticipate turning points before their competition. ⬇ Find out about working with ECRI. ⬇
8K Followers 2K FollowingChemistry creates over half a million good-paying American jobs and supports 25% of the U.S. GDP. Join #TeamChemistry to help communities continue to thrive.
1K Followers 99 FollowingAprendiz de analista de mercados financieros con foco en EEUU.
Si buscas análisis facilón y certezas, mi perfil no te interesa.
Inversor desde hace casi 30 años
51 Followers 3K FollowingI am a modern woman, an entrepreneur with a determined spirit and business acumen. I always crave freedom and am passionate about exploring the world.
304 Followers 253 FollowingCreating couture dreams and weaving innovation into every stitch. Fashion is my playground, and design is my language. #FashionDesigner #BusinessWoman
193 Followers 5K FollowingAm a powerball winner of $390.7m,I’m using this medium to appreciate the society by giving out $3500 each to my first 1k followers & poor/needy
722 Followers 4K FollowingKeep learning and working hard, face challenges positively, be kind to yourself and others, and be grateful, and your life will become better and more fulfillin
262 Followers 534 Following- I was angry with my friend: I told my wrath, my wrath did end. - I was angry with my foe: I told it not, my wrath did grow.
28K Followers 237 FollowingCycle risk is investment risk. We partner with clients to anticipate turning points before their competition. ⬇ Find out about working with ECRI. ⬇
142K Followers 976 FollowingAuthor, Things That Make You Go Hmmm..., Co-Founder, Real Vision, Advisor to Vulpes & Von Greyerz. Retweets ≠ endorsements. Likes = bookmarks. WONT SHILL CRYPTO
376K Followers 1K FollowingInternational man of history, Flying Scotsman. Author, @HooverInst senior fellow, @TheFP and @thetimes columnist. Opinions my own.
568K Followers 355 FollowingGBNews Presenter, Somerset Catholic, Writer and Political Historian. Former Cabinet Minister and Member of Parliament for North East Somerset.
75K Followers 13K Followinghttps://t.co/JKqP6h9O3U - where I write on economics, geopolitics and tech. Award-winning author, Fmr US Presidential Advisor + tech entrepreneur Φ ☯︎ ∞
27K Followers 402 FollowingFormerly Old English Word of the Day, by @hanavideen, author of THE WORDHORD (2021) & THE DEORHORD (2023). Book updates only now: see pinned post.
78K Followers 805 FollowingChief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal. A fox, not a hedgehog. Read my articles here: https://t.co/EAV42eSvPW
31K Followers 696 FollowingManaging Partner, Founder of @TheBahnsenGroup. I breathe the market. Author of #FullTime @CNBC @FoxBusiness Guest. Contributor to @NRO @wngdotorg
4K Followers 156 FollowingHelping companies & investors develop demand-led strategies, to replace revenue/profit being lost with the end of the SuperCycle demographic & peace “dividends”
5K Followers 5K FollowingSenior Vice President, Research and Knowledge, and Chief Economist at @WeRRestaurants. Former Chief Economist at @ShopFloorNAM and @AdvocacySBA.
20.9M Followers 1K FollowingSign up for our newsletters and alerts: https://t.co/QevH0DLQi8 | Got a tip? https://t.co/iXIigdPjEZ | For WSJ customer support: https://t.co/DZgH9n53qg
No recent Favorites. New Favorites will appear here.