Look at the two largest federal spending categories: Social Security and Medicare. Many Americans rely on these programs today, and many more of us will over the next decade.
The federal government is spending roughly $7.4 trillion annually. If Congress could achieve a 10% improvement through a combination of eliminating waste, improving efficiency, reducing fraud, and making targeted spending reductions, that would save about $740 billion per year.
Assuming today’s annual deficit is around $2 trillion, those savings would reduce it to roughly $1.2 trillion.
But that’s still well above the commonly cited long-term sustainable target of about 3% of GDP (roughly $900 billion), leaving a gap of approximately $300 billion.
Closing that remaining gap would require some combination of:
- Stronger economic growth (the current administration’s strategy),
- Higher corporate and/or individual tax revenues, or
- Additional spending reforms.
Based on the results of the DOGE initiative so far, I’m skeptical that Congress or any administration can achieve a 10% improvement across the entire federal budget. Even 5% would be a significant accomplishment. At the same time, the administration has proposed increasing defense spending, which adds to the fiscal challenge.
My concern is that we’re postponing difficult decisions rather than solving the underlying problem. If that continues, the next administration and Congress may have little choice but to consider tax increases, benefit reforms, or both.
I also believe persistent deficits are likely to put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Financing this level of federal borrowing requires substantial Treasury debt issuance, which competes with the private sector for capital—including major investments in AI infrastructure, data centers, energy, and manufacturing.
This isn’t a Republican or Democratic math problem. It’s simply a fiscal math problem.
Going through #IAH again - horrible cell service. When is #AT&T going to install proper WiFi and /or cell service at Houston Intercontinental Airport? 1 bar or LTE lite doesn’t cut it for a major airport ?
@BillAckman It’s simply unacceptable to disrupt those studying during finals and damaging school property. It hurts the entire institution. I’d have zero tolerance for this behavior going forward.
when is AT&T going to offer true 5G at Houston Intercontinental airport (IAH). I can’t take calls or search internet. This has been going on for many months
@ATT@ATTHelp
@ATTHelp No one is answering on any of your communications. Unfortunately I need to go very public to get you to respond. Not good for retaining customers
@Budget not good there is a 1 1/2 to 2 hour wait at Norfolk airport for cars with reservation ? Response at the desk was : “this is the beginning of summer travel” - ok, but that’s known and isn’t that the point of making travel reservations so you know demand?
@GernotWagner@business@climate@_david_ho_ Interesting analysis, but oil was still consumed from other sources during the spill, and unless you believe that ultimate production of crude will be reduced by the spill amount, its simply and academic analysis
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