Emerging Tech @EmergingTechAI

inspireinking.etsy.com/listing/454530…

BREAKING: Iran says contrary to what the US claims, the now fully leaked "Memorandum of Understanding" contains no Iranian commitments to hand over nuclear stockpiles, remove equipment, shut down nuclear facilities, or even commit to not build a nuclear bomb. Instead, all nuclear issues are deferred to a 60 day period of negotiations after signing, per Fars News. For this period to start, the US would need to accept no nuclear commitments from Iran, agree to release $100 billion of Iranian frozen assets, lift the naval blockade, lift all oil and petrochemical sanctions during the negotiation period, pay $270 billion in war reparations, and accept Hormuz under "full permanent sovereign Iranian management and authority" at pre-war traffic levels with no US presence.

@FinanceLancelot 🤣

BREAKING: A source close to Iran's Ghalibaf says Iran's "third struggle" plan announced by the IRGC will close Bab el-Mandeb Strait "by fire" and disable the seven submarine internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz, in immediate response to upcoming US strikes that Iran has assessed as "inevitable," for this weekend. The source adds that Iran will also respond with "next-generation missiles and drones" firing hundreds daily at the Gulf energy infrastructure, and that the US and Israel are playing "Russian roulette" with the outcome being the "collapse of the global economy and unprecedented gas prices."

BREAKING: US Consumer Sentiment officially falls to its lowest level on record in data going back to 1952, down another -10% last month. Consumers now see inflation rising to 4.8% over the next 12 months. This puts the Consumer Sentiment index down -21% since February 2026, before the Iran War. Not even the 1980s saw Consumer Sentiment this low.

It's official: We are now witnessing the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. Since the start of the Iran War on February 28th, more than 500 million ​barrels of crude and condensate have been removed form the global market. In other words, global supply has now lost ~$50 billion ​worth of crude oil production since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago. This is the same amount of fuel it takes to run the world's international shipping industry for 4 months. The world has never seen anything like this before.

President Trump will be reading the Bible, specifically 2 Chronicles 7:11–22, in the Oval Office on Tuesday, April 21, from 6 pm and 7 pm ET. This passage is exclusively about Solomon’s First Temple (the original one built ~950 BC) The First Temple was destroyed by the Babylonians in 586 BC (and the Second Temple by the Romans in AD 70) *Last month I warned that Al Aqsa Mosque (the golden temple) had reportedly been wired with explosives by Israel

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

6 months ago

This war with Iran isn't a regular war, it's being framed as a historical religious war. "These troops, they want to finish this fight for their kids and their grandkids. This is about History. This is about legacy." Notice the language Pete Hegseth used. History and legacy of

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many don't know this, but the black monday stock market crash in 1987 was precipitated by iranian silkworm rockets blowing up a tanker that was under us protection in the persian gulf on thursday, before the weekend started the us then retaliated back at iran on monday at 6am before markets opened... this heightened state of uncertainty and unease eventually triggered the cascading waterfall dynamics that started with japan's open and then into the us open, with the computer algos lighting the afterburners soon after playing with fire is fun until one day, the fafo reaper pays you a visit... so far, the reaper has been ghosting us, so needle tops can continue to remain a fantasy for now

AI data centers are consuming so much electricity that power companies are restarting nuclear reactors they shut down years ago Microsoft just signed a deal to reopen Three Mile Island. The site of the worst nuclear disaster in American history. To power a data center The same facility that nearly melted down in 1979, contaminated the surrounding area, and took 14 years and $1 billion to clean up is being reopened because Microsoft needs more electricity than the existing grid can provide One ChatGPT query uses 10x the electricity of a Google search A single AI training run for a frontier model uses more electricity than 100 American homes consume in an entire year Goldman Sachs estimates data center power demand increases 160% by 2030 The US power grid was not built for this. It was built for a country where demand grew 1-2% per year. AI just made demand grow 15% in a single year with no ceiling in sight Utilities can't build new generation fast enough. Permitting a new natural gas plant takes 4-7 years. A new nuclear reactor takes 10-15 years AI companies need power NOW. Not in 2035. So they're buying everything that already exists Microsoft: Three Mile Island restart. $1.6 billion. 835 MW Amazon: Talen Energy nuclear campus. $650 million Google: first-ever corporate SMR deal with Kairos Energy Meta: actively seeking nuclear sites for dedicated AI supply Four of the largest companies on earth bidding for the same scarce resource simultaneously Here's where I'm putting real money: Vistra (VST) owns the largest fleet of nuclear and natural gas plants in America. Up 300%+ already. Still underpriced because the market is modeling historical power growth, not AI growth. When a hyperscaler needs 500 MW of baseload power by next quarter, Vistra is one of three phone calls they can make in the entire country. Free cash flow is massive. Just announced a $3.25 billion share buyback Constellation Energy (CEG) owns the largest nuclear fleet in the US. The Three Mile Island deal is theirs. Nuclear delivers 24/7 baseload that solar and wind physically cannot match at the reliability AI requires. Their power purchase agreements are being signed at 2-3x historical rates because there are more buyers than megawatts Cameco (CCJ) mines uranium. 34 countries pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. Roughly 8 publicly traded uranium miners of meaningful scale exist globally. Supply is already 7,000 tonnes short annually BEFORE AI demand enters the equation EQT Corporation (EQT) is the largest natural gas producer in America. Every data center that can't secure nuclear runs on gas. Trades at roughly 6x forward earnings which is absurdly cheap for a company sitting on the largest proved reserves in the Appalachian Basin while demand is structurally accelerating The second-order play most people miss: copper. Every data center, every grid expansion, every new power connection requires copper wiring. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is the largest publicly traded copper miner. Supply pipeline for new mines is the thinnest in decades while demand from AI, EVs, and grid upgrades is hitting simultaneously I cover energy infrastructure and AI power demand every week in a free webinar. Real positions, real reasoning. Link in comments

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC issues a warning that they will target 18 US technology companies if the US continues "targeted assassinations" of Iranian leaders, beginning on April 1st. The companies include Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Meta, Boeing, and others.

This is giving me nightmares

The life of a boomer: - Graduated when a degree guaranteed a job - College tuition cost 6 blueberries - Worked at one company for 30 years - Bought a house at 22 on one income - Wife could stay home & raise the kids - Monthly mortgage cost less than Netflix today - Networking happened at the strip club - “Work hard & you’ll get ahead” was actually true - Promotions meant life changing money & not just a pizza party - Passed on their generational trauma to their kids - Rode a historic bull market into retirement with a fat pension - Sold their house for 30x what they paid - Enjoy their social security checks while the fund runs out of money - Tell their kids to stop buying lattes

Exactly @FoFtyTrader panic spillover of private debt into high yield happens during a crisis. This is what happened during the REPO crisis of Sep 2019 to Mar 2020. It was a debt crisis. The "virus" narrative was to bail out the system. Problem is, the situation is now 3x worse

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Financelot @FinanceLancelot

7 months ago

BREAKING: The private equity lending situation is now worse than 2008 - Bloomberg

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45% of China’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz

At birth, success is being alive At age 3, success is not pooping your pants At age 10, success is having friends At age 16, success is having a driver's license At age 20, success is having sex At age 30, success is having money. At age 40, success is having money At age 55, success is having sex At age 70, success is having a driver's license At age 75, success is having friends At age 80, success is not pooping your pants At age 90, success is being alive We all start somewhere and finish where we start, time is the real success so use it wisely

Most people lose money selling options because they don't understand when the clock actually starts running. Theta decay isn't a straight line. It's a cliff. And knowing where the cliff is = the entire edge.🧵

With roundtrip financing and channel stuffing inventory, $NVDA is doing exactly what Cisco & Nortel did back in dot-com bubble of 2000 right before they collapsed. P.S. Nvidia replaced Enron on the S&P 500 in 2001.

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

7 months ago

Nvidia continues to cook their books (legally) by increasing finished inventory sitting in warehouses by almost 200%. "Work in process" partially finished products that could be sitting in their warehouse. 3 customers account for 56% of $NVDA's accounts receivable (not paid).

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All empires since the Dutch have used capitalism to create a virtuous cycle that leads to an empire’s demise.What happens when an empire can no longer borrow the money necessary to repay its debts? History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where: 1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts 2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation 3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism 4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources 5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order Ultimately, this failure to control the anarchy is when democracy is most at risk. #principles #raydalio #history #debt

Paper money was never supposed to be the money. It was a receipt. You deposited gold at a bank. The bank gave you a note that said: "The bearer of this note may redeem it for X amount of gold." That's all a dollar was. A claim ticket. The paper had no value. The gold in the vault did. The paper just made it easier to carry. This system worked for centuries. Every major currency was backed this way. The British pound. The French franc. The U.S. dollar. Then, slowly, governments realized something: If people trust the paper, they never come for the gold. So they printed more notes than they had gold. Then more. Then more. When too many people asked questions, they closed the gold window. That was supposed to be temporary. 55 years later, the dollar is still backed by nothing but trust. And that trust has cost you 97% of your purchasing power. The receipt became the money. Global money became trust-based. And money became nothing but a promise that nobody has to keep.

The principal issue in housing right is between prices and incomes. The typical value of a house acc to Zillow is now $365k. Meanwhile, the US median income is only $85k acc to Census Bureau. That means the price/income ratio is 4.20x, well above the historical norms. You can see the "decoupling" between prices and income started in early 2000s, corrected during last crash, but quickly separated again in 2010s and pandemic. Until prices and incomes come more back into balance, the U.S. Housing Market will remain mired in its worst demand recession in history.