FX Engineer @FX_Engineer
Systematic research on retail FX positioning. 1.9M hourly observations, 28 pairs, 12 years. We provide context. Markets decide. https://t.co/oDJHrih1Ah fxengineer.com Dallas, TX Joined May 2012-
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Resolution ledger. Everything that resolved in the window, both verdicts. Volatility events 6: 4 confirmed, 2 didn't materialize. Vol forecasts 12: 12 didn't materialize. Regime 2: 1 persisted, 1 transitioned. Full list in the ledger post. Running ledger on the card.
Across the last 6 similar episodes on AUDCHF, the typical path stayed within the p25–p75 band shown, out to 10 trading days. Checkpoints: d1 within band, d3 within band, d5 within band, d10 within band. Construction target ~50% within band.
EURGBP retail positioning reached a statistical extreme (|z| = 2.02) — flagged 21:00 UTC, Oct 22. Resolved: didn't materialize.
[COT Brief] Issue #22: cross-asset positioning across 22 markets as of 2026-10-20. Data tables only. Full analysis: fxeresearch.substack.com/p/weekly-cot-p… #cot #positioning #weekly
CHFJPY sits at the 40th percentile. Retail traders are 14.9% long. This reading is more short than 60% of all data since January 2014.
The model assigned 39% probability to elevated volatility on AUDJPY over the next 4 hours (move of 0.39% or more). Resolved: didn't materialize.
16 positioning events detected in the last 7 days. 13 of 16 produced a 15+ pip move in either direction.
CADCHF retail positioning reached a statistical extreme (|z| = 2.27) — flagged 21:00 UTC, Oct 20. Resolved: didn't materialize.
GBPNZD sits at the 16th percentile. Retail traders are 25.4% long. This reading is more short than 84% of all data since January 2014.
The model assigned 39% probability to elevated volatility on AUDJPY over the next 4 hours (move of 0.39% or more). Resolved: didn't materialize.
Asset managers and leveraged funds sit on opposite sides of the 2-year Treasury futures market. The leveraged fund net position ranks in the 94th percentile.
The model assigned 27% probability to elevated volatility on AUDJPY over the next 4 hours (move of 0.39% or more). Resolved: didn't materialize.
Silver leveraged fund net positioning registers at the 6th percentile of the past 52 weeks while asset managers hold the opposite side of the trade.
The model assigned 37% probability to elevated volatility on AUDJPY over the next 4 hours (move of 0.39% or more). Resolved: didn't materialize.
Resolution ledger. Everything that resolved in the window, both verdicts. Volatility events 2: 1 confirmed, 1 didn't materialize. Vol forecasts 12: 1 confirmed, 11 didn't materialize. Full list in the ledger post. Running ledger on the card.
The model assigned 0% probability to elevated volatility on EURGBP over the next 4 hours (move of 0.23% or more). Resolved: didn't materialize.
The model assigned 24% probability to elevated volatility on AUDCHF over the next 8 hours (move of 0.47% or more). Resolved: didn't materialize.
[COT Brief] Issue #21: cross-asset positioning across 22 markets as of 2026-10-13. Data tables only. Full analysis: fxeresearch.substack.com/p/weekly-cot-p… #cot #positioning #weekly
AUDNZD sits at the 1st percentile. Retail traders are 23% long. This reading is more short than 99% of all data since January 2014.
The model assigned 50% probability to elevated volatility on NZDUSD over the next 4 hours (move of 0.37% or more). Resolved: didn't materialize.
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