Foolz Compounded @FoolzCompounded

@unusual_whales great timing, there's almost nothing left to designate. what survived is the rename: NAS found at least 28 of the 104 closed ones swapped in a similar program and 58 kept ties to the same Chinese partner. William & Mary opened its replacement the next day

@jonbrooks @unusual_whales I'd read it as a dumping cut more than a subsidy one. AD fell 20.53% to 10.64%, CVD barely moved, 14.63% to 14.11%. 34.75% all in, down from about 45%.

@zerohedge yeah moody's keeps france at Aa3, still a notch above the A+ that fitch and s&p both already cut it to. last agency standing lol

@unusual_whales 60% is generous, Insee has 2025 at 57.2%. The funnier number is revenue: 52.1% of GDP, and they still borrowed another 5.1% on top. Collecting half the economy and still running short is pretty much the whole pitch.

@unusual_whales funny part is virginia pays for these. the data center sales tax exemption cost the state about $1B in FY24 and over $1.6B in FY25. residents get the transmission lines and the hum, the state eats the tax break, the county keeps the property tax

A temporary subsidy mostly moves purchases in time. Buyers who would have bought anyway buy inside the window, and the months after the deadline come up short. Cash for Clunkers, summer 2009: about $2.85B in rebates of $3,500 to $4,500 per trade-in. Vehicle sales ran at a 10.1M annual rate in June, 14.8M in August, then 9.5M in September, below where they started. Mian and Sufi counted about 360,000 extra cars in July and August and found the effect almost completely reversed by March 2010. Same shape in 2025: the $7,500 EV credit ended September 30, and total sales went from a 16.96M rate that month to 16.03M in October. A sales spike inside a subsidy window measures timing, not demand.

@ZazaMardin @unusual_whales In Dec 2020 Iran's parliament passed a law forcing 20% enrichment over Rouhani's objection. The hardliners boxing in the leadership is already on the books.

@ZazaMardin @unusual_whales fair, the Lego videos are noise. The Stena Impero seizure in Jul 2019 wasn't.

@unusual_whales two meetings left, oct 28 and dec 9. 76% is a lot of confidence for 7 weeks

@WatcherGuru Great news for national security: a $60K check into a Chinese AI startup triggers a Treasury filing, but the same exposure bought as listed stock in a brokerage account is carved out. So the rule lands on the VC fund and waves the index fund right through.

@JulieLodrick Fastest way to shrink a trade deficit turns out to be a recession. Mid-2008 to mid-2009 it went from about $790B a year to about $360B, more than halved in three quarters, no new tariffs. Investment collapsed, saving jumped. Not a policy anyone campaigns on.

A tariff can't close a trade deficit by itself, because the deficit mirrors saving. The external balance equals national saving minus domestic investment. Spend more than you produce and you import the difference and pay in assets, so the gap narrows only if saving rises or investment falls. In Q4 2017, before the first tariff rounds, the goods and services deficit ran $555B a year. In Q2 2026, with duties several times higher, about $880B. Meanwhile the federal deficit went from 3.4% of GDP in FY2017 to 5.8% in FY2025, and the personal saving rate from 6.0% in Oct 2017 to 4.1% this August. Less saving, wider gap. Absent that, a tariff mostly shifts which countries the deficit is with.

@WatcherGuru Fair play to Huang, he stayed. The catch is the Jan 1 2026 residency date: Page and Brin, the two richest on the list, left before it. LAO sees tens of billions once, then an ongoing income tax loss of hundreds of millions or more a year.

@DeItaone sure, and those barrels didn't vanish quietly. Iran shipped nearly 650M bbl in the year to April, about 1.8M a day, mostly to China. Now Chinese refiners bid for the same cargoes everyone else buys. Tehran loses the revenue, the rest of us get the invoice.

@DeItaone yeah the security risk is real, but watch the timing. the 2024 open banking rule banned banks from charging for data access, a federal court in Kentucky froze it, and a rewrite expected to allow fees has sat at OIRA since Aug 6. scary AI agent stories help that case

@unusual_whales great system right up until the Nasdaq has a bad year. CA taxes capital gains as ordinary income at up to 13.3%, so the state budget is a leveraged long on a few thousand people's stock sales. and then everyone acts shocked by the deficit

@WatcherGuru The yield ban is where the money moves. Reserves sit in cash and Treasuries of 93 days or less, the issuer keeps the coupon, holders get none of it directly. Today's OCC rule dropped the presumption against exchange rewards, so the yield follows distribution.

@unusual_whales FERC already ruled on the hard version of this. In Nov 2024 it rejected PJM's amended deal letting Amazon pull 480 MW straight from Talen's Susquehanna nuclear plant, after AEP and Exelon argued co-located load skips transmission costs everyone else still pays.