Gad Nishimwe @GadLytics

$FDX earnings coming up and the options market has already drawn the lines. FedEx closed yesterday around $308, after sliding from the $330s in late August. Analysts are looking for roughly $4.05 EPS on $22.6B in revenue today. What I’m watching is the expected move: Since our Aug. 17 anchor, $FDX has gradually moved from around $331 toward the bottom of its 68% expected-move cone. The lower edge is now roughly $305–$307. So heading into earnings, price is already testing what options had considered the lower end of the expected range. The question tonight isn’t just beat or miss. Does earnings finally push $FDX outside the move volatility had priced in? That’s the number I’ll be watching. @tastyliveshow

Yesterday’s loser became today’s biggest winner. $SWKS fell -10.3% yesterday. Today? +13.6%, the biggest gain in the S&P 500. And it wasn’t alone: 🟢 $SWKS +13.6% 🟢 $RVTY +9.1% 🟢 $APA +5.3% 🟢 $QCOM +4.3% 🟢 $DVN +3.9% Meanwhile, yesterday’s +9.2% winner COIN completely reversed, down 10.1% today. 🔴 $COIN -10.1% 🔴 $AXON -9.8% 🔴 $CMG -5.9% 🔴 $CVNA -5.6% With the 10-year around 5%, oil elevated and the Fed decision tomorrow, this market is repricing quickly. My favorite takeaway from these two days: leadership can flip almost overnight when uncertainty is this high. SWKS: -10.3% → +13.6% COIN: +9.2% → -10.1% Great reminder that yesterday’s momentum isn’t necessarily tomorrow’s trade. @tastyliveshow

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🚨Today S&P 500 Heatmap🚨 Yesterday was about AI. Today, the bond market took over. Stocks finished broadly lower: S&P 500 -0.4% Nasdaq -0.8% Dow -0.6% But look underneath the surface: 🟢 $NVDA and $AMD bounced after yesterday’s semiconductor selloff 🔴 $MSFT , $GOOGL , $AMZN and $AVGO remained under pressure 🟢 Energy was the clear bright spot Why? The 10Y briefly hit 5.04%, its highest since 2007 Brent pushed above $109 And tomorrow we get the Fed decision. So we’ve gone from AI uncertainty → $100+ oil → 5% yields → Fed tomorrow. That’s a lot for equities to digest at once. Right now, I’d argue the most important chart for stock traders might not be the S&P 500, it’s the 10-year Treasury yield. What matters more tomorrow: the Fed decision or how the 10Y reacts to it? @tastyliveshow

Rubrik Inc $RBRK is having quite a week. After surging +15.6% yesterday, RBRK is up another ~1.7% today, trading near $102. Today Rubrik also announced new AI-security capabilities, including Code Guardian with Anthropic and new MCP support for AI agents. But here’s the options angle: Even after yesterday’s massive jump, RBRK is still trading inside the 68% expected-move cone from our Aug. 16 anchor. Big move? Absolutely. Bigger than what volatility had priced? Not yet. That’s why expected move can sometimes tell a more interesting story than the headline return. @tastyliveshow

This chart just became a lot more interesting. For nearly 20 years, the 10-year Treasury stayed around its 2007 highs. Today, it briefly hit ~5.04%, the highest yield since 2007. And look at what’s happening at the same time: 🛢️ Brent ~$108 as Middle East tensions keep energy prices elevated. 📈 10Y >5% as inflation concerns return. 🏦 The Fed meets tomorrow, with markets pricing a high probability of another rate hike. 📉 Stocks are under pressure as that risk-free hurdle keeps rising. Here’s the crazy comparison: The last time yields were around here in 2007, SPY was roughly $150–$160. Today it’s approaching $800. Same yield. Completely different market valuation. That’s why 5% matters: investors can now earn roughly 5% in Treasuries without taking equity risk, forcing stocks, especially expensive growth names, to clear a much higher bar. So maybe the biggest question for stocks right now isn’t AI or even oil… How long can equities comfortably live with a 5% 10-year? @tastyliveshow #SPY #Treasuries #Bonds #Stocks #Trading #Markets #10YEARTRESEARY

Today’s winners and losers tell a pretty wild story. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, but underneath the index there was a huge rotation. AI leaders calling for a slower pace of development sparked a selloff across the infrastructure side of the trade. Semis dropped sharply, with the broader SOXX ETF down about 5.5%. 🔴 $TER -13.3% 🔴 $COHR -12.7% 🔴 $HPE -10.8% 🔴 $LITE -9.9% 🔴 $SMCI -8.4% 🔴 $LRCX -8.3% But the same AI concerns created a completely different reaction in cybersecurity: 🟢 $CRWD +13.9% 🟢 $PANW +13.1% 🟢 $FTNT +9.0% 🟢 $NOW +7.4% The thinking? If AI becomes more powerful, and potentially more dangerous, the value of securing it may rise too. Cybersecurity stocks rallied as investors leaned into that idea. Add a 10-year Treasury briefly touching 5% and Brent settling near $106, and today was a serious stress test for the AI trade. AI wasn’t sold across the board. Money moved from the companies building the infrastructure toward some of the companies protecting it. One-day rotation or the beginning of a new phase of the AI trade? @tastyliveshow

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Today’s market was red… but underneath the surface, there was a pretty clear rotation. 📉 S&P 500 -0.5% 📉 Nasdaq -0.6% 📉 Dow -0.3% The real damage was in semis: the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.9% as concerns around slowing the pace of AI development hit the infrastructure trade. 🔴 $NVDA -3.3% 🔴 $AMD -5.7% 🔴 $INTC -6.0% 🔴 $MU -6.3% 🔴 $AVGO -4.0% But look at the other side of the heatmap: 🟢 $GOOGL +2.2% 🟢 $META +2.1% 🟢 $MSFT +1.3% 🟢 $CRWD +11.3% Meanwhile, the 10-year briefly crossed 5% and Brent settled around $106. So maybe today's message wasn't “sell tech.” It was “rethink which part of tech you want to own.” Is this just a one-day AI rotation, or the beginning of chips losing leadership? @tastyliveshow

AI fears are hitting semis hard today. But history says this is where things get interesting. After calls from major AI leaders to slow the pace of AI development, investors are questioning whether that could eventually mean less spending on chips and AI infrastructure. The semiconductor sector is getting hit as a result. Today: $AMD -3.5% | $INTC -4.0% | $SNDK -4.0% | $MU -4.6% But after similar 2%+ down days over the past year: $AMD : +3.8% avg next 5 days | 71% bounced $INTC : +3.8% | 59% bounced $SNDK : +9.5% | 71% bounced $MU : +5.1% | 68% bounced So today’s headline is AI fear. The historical question is whether this is another overreaction worth buying. But there’s another piece: Implied Volatility (IV) As these stocks sell off, implied volatility remains elevated, roughly 50%+ for AMD, 60%+ for INTC, 70%+ for SNDK and 60%+ for MU on the chart. So today’s selloff isn’t just creating lower prices. It’s also creating richer option premium. That gives traders two questions: Is this another semiconductor bounce, and is elevated IV the better opportunity than trying to predict it? Take a look to each graph below for more understanding. @tastyliveshow #AMD #MU #INTC #SNDK #Semiconductors #Options

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Some of today’s trending tickers tell an interesting AI story. Look at their 2026 performance so far (Jan '26 -Sep'26): $AMD +119% $CRWD +104% $ASML +38% $SMH +46% $INTC +145% $NVDA +12% But today, that AI trade is being tested. Calls from leading AI executives to slow the pace of advanced AI development are hitting the hardware side particularly hard, semiconductors are selling off, with $AMD , $NVDA , $INTC and $ASML under pressure. Meanwhile, cybersecurity names like $CRWD are holding up better as investors think about the other side of AI: more agents and more automation also mean more systems that need to be secured. CrowdStrike recently expanded its OpenAI partnership to secure AI agents at runtime. And here’s the contradiction I find interesting: The market is selling AI infrastructure on fears of slower AI development, while the actual infrastructure buildout still looks huge. $ASML says demand remains very strong and is reportedly exploring increasing EUV capacity to 110+ systems in 2028, versus at least 80 currently planned, largely to meet AI-driven demand. So maybe the next phase of the AI trade isn’t simply “buy anything AI.” It may be about figuring out which layer of the AI stack keeps getting paid regardless of how quickly the models advance. Chips, equipment, software or cybersecurity, which part of the AI trade would you own from here? @tastyliveshow

This heatmap tells the story of today pretty well. A lot of red, with a few very interesting exceptions. 📉 S&P 500 -0.6% 📉 Nasdaq -0.7% 📉 Dow -0.6% 📉 Russell 2000 -1.0% That makes 4 straight down days for the S&P 500. But look under the hood: 🔴 Tech took most of the heat, $NVDA -2%, with $AMD , $MU , $INTC and much of the semiconductor complex also red. 🍎 solana:13j4Hf2NBEGKqZWZyL77Tv9DUkNEi4KP9k5Ls9YEmoon was one of the big exceptions, jumping roughly 3.6% following its product launch. 🛢️ Meanwhile, Brent briefly crossed $108, adding another layer of inflation pressure. 📈 The 10Y Treasury pushed toward 5%, finishing around 4.95%, a level that matters a lot when you look at how much of this market’s leadership has come from long-duration tech. And today’s PPI didn’t help: producer prices were +5.4% YoY, slightly hotter than expected. And we’re not done… ORCL delivers an earnings beat after the bell tonight, but the market’s attention quickly shifts to tomorrow’s CPI report. Oil ↑ + inflation ↑ + yields ↑ while equities ↓. If the 10-year crosses 5%, what part of this heatmap gets hit hardest next? @tastyliveshow #SP500 #Stocks #Trading #Markets #NVDA #AAPL #ORCL

Oracle beat. But the numbers underneath the beat are more interesting. ORCL Fiscal Q1 2027 Earnings: 💰 EPS: $1.92 vs. $1.74 expected : 10% beat 📊 Revenue: $19.35B vs. $19.13B expected : 1% beat Compared with last year: EPS +31% | Revenue +30% But quarter-over-quarter tells a different story: EPS -9% | Revenue +1% That’s a pretty interesting mix, strong YoY growth and a clean headline beat, but much more modest sequential momentum. Now comes the options question: was the beat big enough to justify the move the market priced in? #ORCL #Earnings #Options #Trading

$ORCL earnings after the bell today and the options market is expecting fireworks. Since our Aug. 11 anchor, Oracle has moved around plenty, but price has remained inside the 30-day expected-move cone. Tonight is the real test. 🎯 ORCL around $154 ⚡ Earnings options imply roughly an ±12% move this week about $19/share. ☁️ Wall Street expects ~$19.1B revenue (+28% YoY) and ~$1.74 EPS. 🤖 Cloud infrastructure revenue is expected to grow roughly 112% YoY, while Oracle enters the print with a massive $638B backlog. And here’s the fun part: last September, $ORCL jumped ~38% after earnings. So tonight’s question isn’t simply beat or miss… Can Oracle deliver a move BIGGER than what options traders already paid for? @tastyliveshow #ORCL #Earnings #Options #Trading #Volatility

Hell yeahhhh!! 🔥 @FinancePhoton crushed it on CNBC! Love seeing our research on the big stage, couldn’t have represented the team better! 🙌.

Power Lunch @PowerLunch

6 days ago

Check out @FinancePhoton piece on CNBC: cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ora…

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A lot of red today… but the headline doesn’t tell the whole story. 📉 $SPY -0.58% 📉 Dow -1.18% 📉 Nasdaq -0.32% Only 146 of 503 S&P 500 stocks finished higher, less than 30% of the index. 🛢️ Brent approached $100 as Middle East tensions intensified, putting inflation risk back on traders’ radar. 🍎 Apple grabbed the headlines with the new iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max and its first foldable iPhone Duo, but investors sold the news. AAPL closed at ~$311, down 1.5% on the day. Interestingly, Apple has historically averaged about a 0.3% decline on product-launch days, making today’s drop considerably larger than usual. 🔴 $NVDA -2.0%, $AAPL -1.2%, $MSFT -1.2% 🟢 Semis showed some serious dispersion: $INTC +9.1%, $AMD +5.9%, $AVGO +3.0%. 🚗 $TSLA +4.0% bucked the broader weakness. 🏥 Healthcare was the worst sector at roughly -2.5%, with $AMGN -10%. And yields remain the number I’m watching: the 10-year is hovering around 4.8%. Oil near $100 + 10Y near 4.8% + Apple’s new iPhone cycle + CPI coming Friday. That’s a lot of catalysts fighting for traders’ attention. Which one ultimately wins: oil, yields, inflation… or mega-cap tech? @tastyliveshow #SP500 #AAPL #Stocks #Trading #Markets #NVDA

x.com/i/article/2097…

Since last month (August), SPY is down ~1%… but some stocks clearly didn’t get the memo. 🚀 $MRNA +148% ☁️ $CRM +29% 🧬 $VEEV +19% 🖥️ $SMCI +16% 🎬 $PSKY +14% $MRNA even briefly approached +190%. A flat market doesn’t mean a market without opportunity. If you had to put on ONE trade today, which name are you chasing, fading, or avoiding completely? @tastyliveshow

@AlphaOSFinance Exactly, around 4.76% feels like the line to watch. If jobs push the 10-year meaningfully higher, today’s tech bid could look very different. Tomorrow’s heatmap should be interesting.

Green across much of the S&P 500 today but tomorrow could be a very different story. Today’s rally had a clear theme: rates + mega-cap tech. Treasury yields eased as Fed officials cooled expectations for another near-term rate hike, helping growth stocks. The 10-year yield fell toward 4.75%. 🟢$MSFT, $META , $NVDA , $AAPL , $AMZN & $GOOGL all participated in the rally. 🚕 $TSLA jumped ~7% ahead of tonight’s Cybercab event in Austin, putting Tesla’s autonomous-driving ambitions back in the spotlight. 🔴 $AVGO was the big exception. Broadcom beat on earnings with $29.6B in revenue, but the stock fell as expectations around its outlook were even higher. But the biggest market catalyst may still be ahead… 🚨Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET: August Jobs Report. 🚨 Economists are looking for roughly +25K jobs, after July surprisingly lost 23K, with unemployment expected around 4.1%. That number could quickly reshape expectations for the September Fed meeting → Treasury yields → tech valuations → the entire heatmap. Today was about falling yields. Tomorrow, jobs could decide whether that continues. What are you watching more closely: Jobs, yields, or Tesla? @tastyliveshow #SP500 #Stocks #Trading #Markets #JobsReport #TSLA