Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData
Solana Quant Joined September 2020-
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š My Solana price model uses Monte Carlo simulations and fits a Weibull distribution to forecast a Solana high of $575 by the end of Q1 2026.
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Since 1997, the engineer-to-lawyer ratio in the US has risen from ~0.96 to ~1.08, The Nasdaq-100/S&P 500 trend went the same way. Pearson's Correlation .284, suggesting a link but tempered by market volatility.
Add market regime awareness to our Solana model and the new most probably high for 1st quarter 2026 is $521 with a bull case of $1,535.
My Hidden Markov Model labels the regime of the Solana market in 15 minute intervals. 8 regime labels: ā¢ Bull / Super Low Vol ā¢ Bull / Low Vol ā¢ Bull / High Vol ā¢ Bull / Super High Vol ā¢ Bear / Super Low Vol ā¢ Bear / Low Vol ā¢ Bear / High Vol ā¢ Bear / Super High Volā¦
Solanaās daily moves look like a Weibull distribution. If that holds, we can put numbers on riskāpick any threshold (e.g., 10%) and get daily odds, hits/year, and average wait; estimate the ā1% worst dayā size; and the likely biggest day over 30/90/365 days.
Zoom out to 1 Yr and Active Addresses to Sol Price has a Pearson's Correlation of .608. The last 30 days it has been -.05. Price has disconnected from chain activity.
The Pearson correlation between Solanaās price and active addresses (excluding voting transactions) is -0.05. Something other than network use is driving the price.
The lifetime data for Bitcoin is clear. Bitcoin does not have a power law distribution. It has a lognormal distribution. This basic statistical insight will change your price outlook.
Bitcoin Top Model (Power-Law Decay) Predicts ~1.26Ć above the 111d/250Ć2 MA crossover. Current 350 x 2 crossover is $186K ā top ā $235K. and trending upward. Rā = 1 + 7.38 Ā· nā»Ā²Ā·ā“Ā³ , n = 4 Rā ā 1.26 Ptop ā 1.26 Ć Crossover (>186K) ā >$235K
x.com/BTC_Archive/stā¦. Friedman was ahead of his time
x.com/BTC_Archive/stā¦. Friedman was ahead of his time
3,865 10 to 1 long shots at GulfStream Park in the last 8 years. Bet them all and get a negative expected value of -.55 per $2 wager. Is there a subset of these horses that will deliver value?
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