PlanB @100trillionUSD
All models are wrong, some are useful. https://t.co/4UQOQ8ejKv planbtc.com Joined October 2017-
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Now that the monetary inflation rate of #Bitcoin has dropped below #Gold, it will be interesting to see if its market cap will exceed gold according to the stock to flow thesis. In my view BTC will lag its S2F valuation by 5-10 years, the world simply doesn't move quickly.…
Some people have interpreted this tweet as if S2F model no longer works or that I capitulated on S2F model .. but that is not correct, of course. On the contrary, I tried to explain what S2F is, the jump from commodity to monetary asset, and the coming battle between gold, RE and…
Some people have interpreted this tweet as if S2F model no longer works or that I capitulated on S2F model .. but that is not correct, of course. On the contrary, I tried to explain what S2F is, the jump from commodity to monetary asset, and the coming battle between gold, RE and…
Supply (flow) is now irrelevant. It's ALL about stock! Bitcoin managed to increase stock WITHOUT crashing price (indeed, while increasing market cap beyond $ 1T). Not many assets have reached 'monetary' status (high S2F + high value), only gold, real estate, and now bitcoin.
Happy bitcoin halving! (stock-to-flow doubling): - in the 6 months before the halving, insiders frontrun it: price 2x - in the 6 months after the halving, miner revenue adjusts: price 2x - 6-18m after the halving, the rest of the market rushes to get a piece of the pie: price 4x
What if an investor with unlimited capital announced a program to acquire 450 $BTC daily at the market price for the next four years and hold the asset forever? What if they increased their purchases to 675 BTC daily in 2028, and to 787.5 BTC daily in 2032? #BitcoinHalving.
Funny how people like @PeterSchiff @paulkrugman & Jamie Dimon think bitcoin is a bubble and pyramid scheme, while simultaneously the largest asset managers like Fidelity & BlackRock embrace bitcoin's monetary use case, and DoD @JasonPLowery and others explore military use cases:
60 million millionaires in the world, and only 21 million bitcoin..
IMO this bitcoin halving will NOT be different: - All bitcoin price increase will again be around the halving - Buying 6m before the halving and selling 18m after the halving (green line) will outperform buy&hold - BTC > $100k in 2024 - BTC top > $300k in 2025
Bitcoin needs high volatility, to shake out fakers. Hodlers don't mind, but larpers are scared out by casual -10% dips. Bitcoin is not for everyone. Embrace the volatility.
In the last bull market in 2021, I only had the rough directional S2F model and missed the top. In this bull market, I also have the new market cycle model. It already helped me correctly call the bottom. Hopefully, it will also help me to detect the top: when red turns yellow.
I am still using this 2019 $55k S2F formula (btc=0.4*s2f^3), nothing has changed. Some people use the $100k S2F variant (using only 4 pre-2012-halving data points) that was specifically made to argue that it doesn't matter that there are only a few halvings. There is also a…
I am still using this 2019 $55k S2F formula (btc=0.4*s2f^3), nothing has changed. Some people use the $100k S2F variant (using only 4 pre-2012-halving data points) that was specifically made to argue that it doesn't matter that there are only a few halvings. There is also a…
Hayek 1984: "While governments can stop people from issuing money, they can hardly stop them from opening accounts in something. So I think we can forget about existing money and existing banks, and gradually open a system of accounts which will displace the government money."…
We haven't even started (color = RSI🟠) m.youtube.com/watch?v=LUiPYy…
Dear @XEng @elonmusk @Safety @lindayaX Please include this request in the purge project for spam/bot/scam accounts. Here are 20k active impersonators, regarding ~700 accounts being impersonated. benemortasia.com/impersonators?… Almost all accounts are Finance or Crypto related…
To be clear: Craig Wright (BSV fork) and Roger Ver (Bch fork) are no friends of bitcoin (BTC). They are enemies of bitcoin that forked their own shitcoin (BSV and BCH) years ago and tried to kill bitcoin. Markets decided to devalue BSV and BCH years ago. They are irrelevant.
Very, very important article! The biggest misconception with regard to gold – High stock-to-flow ratio is the most important characteristic of gold vongreyerz.gold/the-biggest-mi… ht @RobertBlumen
How can I improve ~7% click through rate (CTR) on my YouTube video thumbnails (2-3 million impressions per video)?🙏 m.youtube.com/@PlanB_Bitcoin…
One day, you wake up and see bitcoin at $100k, without any important news or event. Then $200k and more. Some will say it's a bubble, others realize bitcoin transitioned to the next phase.
One day, you wake up and see bitcoin at $100k, without any important news or event. Then $200k and more. Some will say it's a bubble, others realize bitcoin transitioned to the next phase. https://t.co/YEfH4RTB69
Controversial confession. I for one am extremely grateful for @100trillionUSD’s stock to flow model. I would not have fallen down the rabbit hole as hard and as quickly as I did if it hadn’t been for his stock to flow model.
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I will never forgive, and never forget. That whole saga was an existential turning point Fundamental illusions I had of human nature (freedom, skepticism, rebellion) They dissipated The overwhelming collective of human beings desire a stable reality and will acquiesce to…
I have said it many times but most people have not 100% recovered from the lockdowns, isolation, confusion, coercion, division, and fear of the scamdemic period. Many never will. People are still affected in various ways. Permanently altered psychologically.
Privacy is normal. Living in a surveillance state in which the government demands to watch everything we do with our money at all times without obtaining a warrant is NOT normal. Treating software developers who build privacy-preserving technology as criminals is reprehensible.
There are also questions around whether KYC is helpful at stopping illicit activity and whether on average is worth the cyber risk and loss of privacy. It should be normal and encouraged to discuss such concerns and tradeoffs. Of course, such topics are taboo at most places.
KYC is a security hole. Businesses are just bullied/forced by governments to collect customer information. It’s really difficult to secure information in the internet age. Some of the largest and most capitalized companies still get hacked regularly.
Don't let your dislike of samourai cloud your judgment. I'd be wary about the precedent being set here and the way non-custodial software is being challenged by the state for not doing KYC/AML. AML laws are unjust, immoral and ineffective.
@MrHodl yeah, more trying to point out this isn't specific to samourai because of some mean tweets. people can do their victory lap or whatever, just dont be surprised when the same argument gets used against miners and lightning routing nodes
@100trillionUSD Just wanted to say thank you for your time and effort with visualising this grand money experiment. It's always exciting to watch bitcoin after the halvings. Been watching since 2012 and it's only really just clicked with me on what this is. Pretty wild stuff.
@100trillionUSD @Wise_Lending Screw the haters… Hating is the ultimate form of weakness and haters always seem like the biggest losers. Regardless of what happens thank you for everything you do @100trillionUSD
@100trillionUSD Keep it up, bro. Sooner or later they will understand. 👊
@100trillionUSD Love your work! Sorry the students get to rowdy.
@100trillionUSD God bless you PlanB. The man who helped me achieve financial freedom
Gold production going to the moon as technology gets better. Gold has had 6000 years of being scarce. That changed as we moved into the industrial age. #Bitcoin supply growth dropped below gold this week, it's only get scarcer. Yup, this fundamental premise of S2F valuation.
@100trillionUSD (2/2) - Hoarding behaviour will increase as the perception of bitcoin changes from 'casino' to 'better than gold'. This will be the dominant driver of price going forward. - Expect illiquid supply to continue to rise, as holders assign higher 'for sale' prices to their bitcoin.
I believe what @100trillionUSD is saying is that: - With the halving Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon into being a high S2F asset like gold and RE, a monetary asset - High S2F -> pricing will be driven (mostly) by stock not flow. - Hoarding behaviour will increase... (1/2)
Some people have interpreted this tweet as if S2F model no longer works or that I capitulated on S2F model .. but that is not correct, of course. On the contrary, I tried to explain what S2F is, the jump from commodity to monetary asset, and the coming battle between gold, RE and…
@KimDotcom Love it! BCH: Gaslighting BTC: Here's the research paper woocharts.com/_dl/P2P2013_04… In a nutshell, BCH at 32MB of data in a block will require 44 minutes of propagation time before the majority of the network knows of the block. With 10min blocks, it'll be attacked to oblivion.
@100trillionUSD Thanks for your response to my questions sir! I will think about this and read the link that you just posted, to try and understand. Appreciate all your contributions to the Bitcoin community