Angel Lee @JayrishMea

As you pursue your dreams, don’t ignore your inner voice. Trust your instincts and deep passions HongKong Joined December 2015

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Angel Lee @JayrishMea

3 years ago

Chicken soup for the soul comes from mother’s love

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Angel Lee @JayrishMea

3 years ago

"There are no shortcuts in life. Only hard work and perseverance can you achieve your goals."

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Angel Lee @JayrishMea

3 years ago

The world has become so cold and unforgiving to me.

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Angel Lee @JayrishMea

3 years ago

relax for a moment

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Angel Lee @JayrishMea

3 years ago

At this special moment, I wish my girlfriends always happiness, all their wishes come true, and we can create a beautiful future together.

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Angel Lee @JayrishMea

3 years ago

Drinking tea is a way of life that makes me appreciate the details and beauty in life.

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Angel Lee @JayrishMea

3 years ago

Wow! Taking a bite feels like returning to childhood

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Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU

3 years ago

THREAD about fast deteriorating US job mkt. Est Survey (payrolls) has become a punchline not a useful measure of jobs. HH Survey (employment) just gave us THREE clear, historically validated recession signals - including the unemployment rate. youtu.be/UX6NpZ_UJcc First, growing issues with Establishment Survey. BLS puts out huge numbers only to revise them downward, often by a lot, over the following months. This latest one, just crazy. December's was reduced by 43,000 while January's a whopping 124,000, completely changing the picture and interpretation of job situation and making the data increasingly unreliable. February's initial estimate was better than expected, but what will it be by next month? MORE IMPORTANT RECESSION SIGNALS IN CPS. 1. HH Survey contracting. Not just a month or two, but over the course of six months. The avg change is -89,000 which is consistent with recession in nearly every prior case. 2. FT jobs contracting - big time. Businesses continue to cut back on workers' hours in addition to cutting back on some of their workers. This is another solid sign of recession in US jobs. If this time is different, it would be the first time. 3. Unemployment Rate. Yep, it's still very low at just 3.9%. However, it isn't the level that matters but the change in direction, how long that change is maintained, and, most of all, how far it goes. Through Feb '24, the UE rate has increased by half a percentage point over the last 10 months. That much of an increase over that long of a period is another unmistakable sign of recession. Others: there are other signals implying recession such as what's happening with Part-time Jobs (CPS) which back up the those mentioned above. Conclusions from February jobs: Establishment Survey is a growing mess and the BLS has some explaining to do especially since that's the data most of the public hears about. HH Survey has been moving toward recession since last October; after a few more months that move has been firmly established. It's not just some datapoints spit out by the government. This is in the real economy. The reason it "feels" like a recession is because it already is. Economists and politicians won't realize this until much later on. Full detailed breakdown of the recession signals and the current employment situation here: youtu.be/UX6NpZ_UJcc