Marko Bjegovic @MBjegovicc
Founder/CEO of Arkomina | Investor | Macroeconomist | Stock Picker | Not investment advice (see disclaimer) | https://t.co/W10md6ZFkk Subscriptions/ ArkominaResearch.substack.com London, UK Joined December 2013-
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The CEO of RH is saying this bc he knows he can't pass that on to consumers without sacrificing revenue. This is what many got wrong when projecting tariff impacts 6 months ago.
The CEO of RH is saying this bc he knows he can't pass that on to consumers without sacrificing revenue. This is what many got wrong when projecting tariff impacts 6 months ago.
Worth remembering that bullish narratives always sound the most compelling at or near the top.
Worth remembering that bullish narratives always sound the most compelling at or near the top.
If this happens, it could end up being temporary. Hard to imagine that 100%+ tariffs with the 2 most populous countries on the planet would remain in place for more than a few months max.
If this happens, it could end up being temporary. Hard to imagine that 100%+ tariffs with the 2 most populous countries on the planet would remain in place for more than a few months max.
Aug #CPI came in hotter for headline, in line for core. But the details reveal that the increase was actually, for who knows which time, driven by the Shelter and not the actual #inflation data. Explanation follows. A CPI thread. 1/12
These threads take a lot of time and effort to make. If you like the content, please love and retweet to help me spread the message. Also, make sure to check my Substack: ArkominaResearch.substack.com for additional labor market and #inflation content, as well as days-ahead monthly…
If you're interested in learning my forecasts for Sep Employment Report and #CPI, as well as the unemployment rate, CPI, and PCE trajectories 4 quarters out, consider subscribing to premium Arkomina Research (much more comprehensive than Substack). Arkomina Research offers 3…
Aug #CPI hotter for headline, in line for core Headline +0.4% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.2% in Jul +2.9% YoY vs +2.9% consensus vs +2.7% in Jul Core +0.3% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.3% in Jul +3.1% YoY vs +3.1% consensus vs +3.1% in Jul #Inflation…
Aug #PPI much cooler than expected -0.1% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.9% in Jul +2.6% YoY vs +3.3% consensus vs +3.3% in Jul #deflation
Consider this: 1) Q2 GDP ex-net exports -1.7%. 2) History says that GDP can grow as much as 5% at the onset of #recession s and they can be positive even several months in. 3) Also, the GDP data is lagging and can be revised down.
Consider this: 1) Q2 GDP ex-net exports -1.7%. 2) History says that GDP can grow as much as 5% at the onset of #recession s and they can be positive even several months in. 3) Also, the GDP data is lagging and can be revised down.
@AnnaEconomist Don't forget @MBjegovic who was adamant about this issue since last year.
Preliminary 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls Annual Revision -911K vs -818K prior
What I said here remains: x.com/MBjegovic/stat…
What I said here remains: x.com/MBjegovic/stat…
While the #Fed keeps mentioning "strong and resilient", "solid", "full employment", "stable" and "historically low" when describing the labor mkt, the actual (un)employment data remains weak. But the labor mkt is even weaker than most ppl realize. Here is why. A thread. 1/11
These threads take a lot of time and effort to make. If you like the content, please love and retweet to help me spread the message. Also, make sure to check my Substack: ArkominaResearch.substack.com for additional labor market and #inflation content, as well as days-ahead monthly…
If you're interested in learning my forecasts for Sep Employment Report and #CPI, as well as the unemployment rate, CPI, and PCE trajectories 4 quarters out, consider subscribing to premium Arkomina Research (much more comprehensive than Substack). Arkomina Research offers 3 key…
Aug Employment Report weaker than expected Nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected +22K vs +75K consensus vs +79K in Jul Unemployment rate in line with expectations 4.3% vs 4.3% consensus vs 4.2% in Jul Average hourly earnings in line with expectations +0.3% MoM vs +0.3%…
Jun revised down to -13K !
Initial Jobless Claims higher than expected 237K vs 230K consensus vs 229K prior Continuing Claims lower than expected 1940K vs 1960K consensus vs 1944K prior --------------------------------------- Q2 Nonfarm Productivity stronger than expected +3.3% vs +2.7% consensus vs…
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