I spent two days touring Intel’s most advanced fab and talking to its technical leadership to understand what the chips of the future will look like.
A lot of what's coming next – gate-all-around transistors, backside power, CFET, hybrid bonding – is hard to follow without
"NVIDIA DSX is full stack AI factory reference architecture, co-innovated with the world’s leading infrastructure companies."
IREN sites in Jensen Huang's #NVIDIAGTC Berlin keynote. Watch the full presentation: youtube.com/watch?v=PvFjbP…
Something that I've been surprised about is the market treating Intel like a high beta leveraged bet. Despite Intel's cash position and cash generation turnaround.
In reality before the AI boom, Intel's earnings peaked in $4-$5 range before 10nm and 7nm delays came to bite with the competitive gap to TSMC.
Intel has a base earnings turnaround that is entirely within their own control. The insourcing of tiles from TSMC, transitioning it's manufacturing base to Intel 3/18A/14A, Intel shrinking TSMC competitive gap to within 5% on 14A generation. In addition Intels PDK's are finally industry standard and multiple customers have signed up their own products.
If AI has a CAPEX slowdown does Apple cut chips made by Intel in America?
If Google slows CAPEX, what gets cut first. Mediatek TPUs that multiple times better TCO than Rubin? Does Google stop buying wafers for their ARM CPU?
Nvidia doesn't release Rubin Gaming?
Intel Foundries wins are core products to big wealthy customers, made in America. The made in America tailwind has many years to run as TSMC movement to the US is slow and capped to mid 30s share. While their technology lead continues to shrink.
At the same time Lip-Bu has made it a priority to fix Intel's CPU PPA gap to ARM. He knows the best talent in the industry and funded many of their startups.
These are all earnings tailwinds that will continue for years regardless of AI, entirely within the control of Intels own execution. I'm not selling due to outside noise.
Thank you for your attention to this matter
$INTC
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