Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

Macro, Chess, Politics, Stocks and More Joined October 2024

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

a year ago

@DoejiStar I think the steeping is likely even if they do nothing because back end is mainly responding to the fiscal situation more.

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@DoejiStar I agree on that one, the economy is not yet too weak. however with the pressure from the Whitehouse to cut, and if we get a good inflation print this month, its going to be difficult to justify not cutting.

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

a year ago

@DoejiStar if they are looking through the tariff inflationary impact and the economy weakens. why wouldn't they cut? It seems they should cut in that environment, its the reason they cut in September. (granted unemployment had risen a lot more back then)

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

a year ago

@DoejiStar I thought about it the other way. The weak data is actually good for risk because it makes a cut easier for the fed. Waller this morning already looking beyond tariffs. WALLER: JUST DOESN'T SEE HOW TARIFFS WOULD CREATE PERSISTENT INFLATION

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

Listening to the Cousins podcast from a few days ago... Its interesting to even consider the "music may be about to stop" in UST demand from rest of the world. The Tariffs are changing everything

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

@DoejiStar 30y sell-off from the US house tax vote is main culprit. The US back end seems worried about more debt issuance which would mean the Fed needs to finance that debt.. so large dollar weakness. So broad dollar weakness with safe havens leading, hence the move also in Gold

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

Core inflation at 0.446%, the fed cuts look less likely. NDX could fall to January lows

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

BANK OF ENGLAND'S MANN: AS AN ACTIVIST POLICY MAKER, I CHOSE 50 BASIS POINTS NOW, ALONG WITH CONTINUED RESTRICTIVENESS IN THE FUTURE, AND A HIGHER LONG-TERM BANK RATE TO ‘CUT THROUGH THE NOISE’ I guess Mann is not as dovish afterall, her comments were literally the bottom on GBP

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

@BergMilton 1000%

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

4 Points into January Fed Meeting open.substack.com/pub/macrogambi…

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

*DEEPSEEK SAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE-SCALE MALICIOUS ATTACK: BBG

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

Somehow Gold and other precious metals dont believe cutting cycle is over. Gold rallying like monetary inflation is upon us and choosing to believe Goolsbee instead...

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Macro Gambit @Macro_Gambit

2 years ago

BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH: "WE THINK THE CUTTING CYCLE IS OVER; OUR BASE CASE HAS THE FED ON AN EXTENDED HOLD; BUT WE THINK THE RISKS FOR THE NEXT MOVE ARE SKEWED TOWARD A HIKE" - Strong jobs report and cutting cycle might be over