Mike Shell @MikeWShell

Investment manager of ASYMMETRY® Managed Portfolios for asymmetric risk/reward. Edge, trend, momentum, convexity, optionality, flows, sentiment, volatility. shell-capital.com Tennessee Joined April 2009

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

2 weeks ago

+ everyone’s “all in,” leverage is high, and positions are crowded.

Markets & Mayhem 🤖 @Mayhem4Markets

2 weeks ago

+ everyone’s “all in,” leverage is high, and positions are crowded.

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

3 days ago

A classic negative divergence: price higher, participation lower.

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

5 days ago

Confidence doesn’t come first. Conviction does. When you deeply believe in your value proposition—what you do, how you do it, and the value it creates—confidence is inevitable. That’s how you stand out, win trust, and lead with authority.

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

a week ago

Why hasn’t Raja Jackson been arrested for assault or attempted murder? “They told me to hit him, and just leave,” Mr. Jackson said. But, he added, “I’m telling you, I’m going to hit him as many times as I can — watch.” share.google/u8k7ORhdJknL06…

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

a week ago

The rational investor is diligent, skeptical and appropriately risk-averse at all times, but also on the lookout for opportunities for potential return that more than compensates for risk. That’s the ideal. But in good times, we hear most people say, “Risk? What risk? I don’t…

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

2 weeks ago

The Fed’s revised statement is a clear hawkish shift: they’ve dropped language about tolerating inflation overshoots and committed to acting “forcefully” to keep expectations anchored at 2%, removing any implicit dovish bias. For stocks, this caps upside and raises downside…

Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant

2 weeks ago

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Marko Kolanovic @markoinny

2 weeks ago

I tend to agree with this. September cut nod was a "velvet glove on an iron fist". No tolerance of future inflation overshoots. Somewhat inconsistent message as we might be in one already. x.com/MikeWShell/sta…

Mike Shell @MikeWShell

2 weeks ago

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

2 weeks ago

The $SPX uptrend is still intact, but breadth and momentum divergences into historically weak September seasonality create a fragile, downside-skewed asymmetry unless the S&P 500 holds its nearby support band.

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

2 weeks ago

Volatility tells us how wild the ride is. Momentum tells us which way the ride is actually going.

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

2 weeks ago

Retail is a vol seller again. Record gamma supply (especially 0DTE) pins intraday movement and dampens shocks—but also loads the spring: a modest macro/earnings surprise can flip the surface and unpin prices quickly. That’s convexity.

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

3 weeks ago

Bullish bias for SPX— contango shows risk-on, low fear. Bearish bias for long vol — steep contango bleeds. The asymmetry: with VIX this low, even a modest shock can flip the curve into backwardation, unleashing convex upside for long vol.

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Mike Shell @MikeWShell

2 weeks ago

Goldman Sachs: slower job growth supports three 25 bp cuts starting in September, plus two more in 2026 (policy path is the macro backdrop options are implying).