Dave Sekera, Morningstar Chief Market Strategist @MstarMarkets
Important Disclosures: https://t.co/mLWZxkC5BG Note: I do not use WhatsApp. Anyone claiming to be me on that app is an impersonator. morningstar.com/authors/1514/d… Chicago Joined September 2008-
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Join Susan & me on The Morning Filter Mon, April 29 @ 8am CT / 9am ET. We'll discuss • #Earnings expectations: $AAPL $AMZN $LLY $SBUX $CLX • Updates on $META $TSLA $GOOGL $MSFT & others • 5 undervalued #stocks to play defense $BF.B $JNJ $MDT $NEM $T spr.ly/6018b0mFM
$GOOGL surging >11% before market open after strong #earnings . Search & YouTube growth accelerated & op margin expanded. Capex incr for AI spend, but headcount reduction & consolidating teams to blunt impact. Details on why we bumped up our fair value: spr.ly/6015bIkDB
$MSFT up 4% before market open after strong #earnings. We bumped up fair value on stronger near-term growth & profitability. FY25 guide incl double-digit rev growth & op margin contraction of about 1 percentage point, consistent w/ our model Details: spr.ly/6019bIpuZ
$T down over 1% following #earnings, yet we held our fair value steady on this 4-star rated #stock. Trades at approx. 30% discount to our fair value and sports a 6.6% dividend yield. Interested? Learn more here: spr.ly/6016bvDa6
$META getting brutalized in market today, #stock falling 11% after #earnings. Zuckerberg indicated he sees multiple avenues to monetize #AI, but investors concerned incr in capex spend will be for naught as was w/ Metaverse. Details: spr.ly/6018bQAeu
$NEM up 13% following #earnings. See link below as to why we thought #Newmont and other miners #stock have significant upside leverage to price of #gold.
$TXN riding higher on #earnings that weren’t as bad as feared, yet we suggest caution on this 2-star rated #stock. Our fair value estimate is unchanged. We remain concerned that automotive cycle might get worse before it gets better. Details here: spr.ly/6019bWgQP
We see great prospects for $GE stand-alone commercial & military jet engine business Here is why we increased our fair value on this #stock. spr.ly/6010bWjq6
$TSLA up >12% before market open after #earnings - and we still think its undervalued. Interested to learn why we increased our fair value estimate on this 4-star rated #stock? Here are our 4 key takeaways on #Tesla: spr.ly/6011bWkkX
$VZ rebounding after y’days sell-off following #earnings. Our fair value on this 4-star rated #stock unchanged as results met our expectations. Wireless rev growth robust, w/ price incr driving higher sales w/out spurring significantly higher churn. spr.ly/6016bcp0I
Starting in 5 minutes! 👀
Starting in 5 minutes! 👀
$NFLX down >9% following #earnings, yet still trading 20% above our fair value. Details why we think this 2-star rated #stock has further to fall: spr.ly/6019bTR51
Join Susan & me on The Morning Filter Mon, April 22 @ 8am CT / 9am ET We'll discuss: • Expectations for #earnings season $TSLA $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META • Updates on $NFLX $JNJ & others • #Stock picks one year later w/ room to run spr.ly/6015bTugS
$JPM down almost 6% after #earnings. We were only research provider w/ sell opinion on this 2-star rated #stock. Our $168 fair value estimate is unch’d. Details: spr.ly/6010wQZ80
Coming up tomorrow! Don't miss your last chance to register today.
Coming up tomorrow! Don't miss your last chance to register today.
Just about to start! 🚨
Just about to start! 🚨
Join Susan & me on Mon, April 8 @ 8am CT / 9am ET. We'll discuss: • Our expectations for upcoming 1Q #earnings season • Updates on $TSLA $MMM & others • 5 Undervalued small-cap value stocks $BWA $ST $FMC $CZR $W spr.ly/6013wz6pd
My pleasure speaking w/ @ausbiztv about why we think whats worked for past 1 ½ years in market is not whats going to work going forward. Time to look at contrarian plays, #stocks that have underperformed, are unloved—and undervalued
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Ben Johnson, CFA @MstarBenJohnson
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872 Followers 115 Following
Daniel Sotiroff @DanielSotiroff
959 Followers 398 Following Morningstar ETF analyst. Runner of long distances. Morningstar Research Services. Important disclosure information. https://t.co/SoD8xK7YV1
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18K Followers 251 Following Editor of HumbleDollar, contributor to "My Money Journey" and author of "How to Think About Money."
Emma Rapaport @rap_reports
1K Followers 2K Following Street Talk co-editor @FinancialReview | Former @MstarAus Editor | Lover of baked goods, curb references and good tweets@DonFSchneider The discrepancy must be owing to the deflator, as the nominal data for the top (BEA) is sourced from the same data as the bottom. The top chart uses the correct price index as the deflator, whereas I think they're using the different one (maybe the headline CPI?) for the bottom.
Taiwan Semi’s inventory of raw material & gases, along w/ long-term supply agreements, will cushion supply shocks and allow for securing alternative sources if prolonged conflict in Ukraine. We think $TSM significantly undervalued and rate it 5 stars. spr.ly/6011KmwzV
Whether Fed raises by 25bps or 50bps tomorrow, I'm more interested in details regarding plans to start unwinding its massive portfolio. Yield on 10-year UST already at highest since mid-2019 and can soar higher if Fed plans on selling too much too fast.
4-star rated $UBER trading up this morning following #earnings, but remains at a substantial discount to our fair value estimate. Mobility gross bookings hit 84% of pre-pandemic levels during the quarter, up from 79% in the third quarter. spr.ly/6010KuKV6
$UBER shares attractive. Beat Q4 expectations. Margin expansion to continue on all fronts. Network effect intact & improving. We applaud the diversified revenue especially w delivery generating positive adj. EBITDA. Raised FVE to $73 from $69. spr.ly/6011KP0dZ
$DIS kicked off fiscal '22 on positive note. Pandemic uncertainty remains, but continued growth in bookings & per capita spending offer reassuring signs for long-term growth. Our $170 fair value is unchanged on this wide moat, 4-star rated #stock. spr.ly/6018KuKZp
$SNAP now up 50% on the day, here is why spr.ly/6011KMCPP
Strong $SNAP Q4 numbers. Despite some headwinds it's well-positioned to grow top-line through its range of advertising clients & innovation. Operating leverage through mainly revenue growth, resulting in GAAP profitability in 2023. Stock attractive with $66 FVE.
$PFE tuck-in acquisition of $ARNA provides new assets to drive long-term growth, but our valuation is un'chd & we rate the stock with 2 stars. PFE cash windfall from #COVID19 vaccine used to acquire mid- to late-stage assets follows its long-term strategy spr.ly/6016JvjxG
Economic recovery driving ad spending growth of which digital ads are accelerating.
We increased $TWTR fair value estimate to $58. Higher demand for brand advertising and direct response product enhancements attracted advertisers, increased user monetization, and drove strong Q2 growth. Shares trading at 25% premium over our fair value. spr.ly/6019ydKYf
Communications is the second-most undervalued sector following energy spr.ly/6013ynKtJ, and we think $VIAC and $DISCA are both undervalued whereas $NFLX is substantially overvalued in our view. Here’s why:
Who will come out on top in the streaming wars? We maintain that Netflix is overvalued but see potential in ViacomCBS. Here's how we view the rest of the main players in the streaming world: $AMZN $NFLX $DIS $DISCA $CMCSA $VIAC spr.ly/6011yXJ0d
Just published: I took a deep dive into the quirky list of Robinhood's 100 Most Popular Stocks: spr.ly/6016H8FTm
Equity ETFs took in an estimated $81.8 billion in net new money in November, pushing ETF flows to a monthly record of $91.4 billion, and putting a new annual record within reach. The prior monthly flows record was $63.4 billion, set in June 2019.
Vanguard cap gain estimates dropped last night. Not a lot of big surprises except for 8% distrib at Instl Total Market. Would expect all/almost all of its shareholders are tax-sheltered. Primecap-managed funds making distributions again this year, too. morningstar.com/articles/10099…
If former vice president Joe Biden wins the #election, we think utilities executives could be faced with challenges in renewable energy, taxes, and natural gas supply. Here is our forecast for the #utilities sector under a #Biden presidency. spr.ly/6016Gfwgu
Super chuffed about this, thank you very much!
Well done to Holly Black, Morningstar, for winning ‘Best Broadcast Journalist’ in the AIC Media Awards 2020. @hollyblack_ltc @uk_morningstar @mstarukmedia
Updating my Zoom background after #MICUS
Don Phillips sees the bookcase of @mjmauboussin and says: Hold my beer. #MICUS
Aumenta l'offerta di #fondi #ESG a livello globale. Nel secondo trimestre ne sono stati lanciati 125 nonostante il #COVID19. Nel primo trimestre avevano debuttato in 133. bit.ly/3ggF1Fh #Sustainability @Morningstarit @MstarResearch
I'm kind of obsessed with this topic. If withdrawal rates are supposed to fluctuate based on portfolio performance, what's the best way to do it without completely upending the retiree's standard of living? morningstar.com/articles/99168…
.@RA_Insights argues ESG isn't a factor. 1.) Not grounded in academic literature 2.) Not robust across definitions 3.) Not robust across geographies But, ESG strategies have + loadings on low vol. and quality. So a way of backing into factors? bit.ly/2CXGX6O
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