Donald Schneider @DonFSchneider
Deputy Head of US Policy At Piper Sandler. Tweets on public policy and the economy. Formerly Chief Economist @waysandmeansgop pipersandler.com/research/macro… Washington, DC Joined October 2012-
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When we look at manufacturing specifically, where we do have quantity data, we don't seem to find a markup rise. Instead, papers find technology to be the key change. Kirov and @EconTraina: raw.githubusercontent.com/James-Traina/W… Foster, @JHaltiwanger_UM, and Tuttle: nber.org/system/files/w…
What do we know about markups in the United States? Are they high? Are they rising? This week's newsletter covers the (part of a huge) literature and what we know at this point. It's not as simple as you might have heard. Otherwise, I wouldn't have needed 4k words 🧵
PRC would rather kill it than sell. Because that’s what you do with a lucrative product that’s definitely *not* an information warfare weapon designed to foment disunion inside the West.
PRC would rather kill it than sell. Because that’s what you do with a lucrative product that’s definitely *not* an information warfare weapon designed to foment disunion inside the West.
Tonight, the countdown for TikTok begins. Once President Biden signs the legislation, it must divest from its Chinese Communist Party-controlled parent company ByteDance within nine months. This wasn’t supposed to happen. Per @schwartzbCNBC, @tiktok_us and ByteDance spent over…
roughly a year later and i still think about this @ModeledBehavior tweet time to time. has some bearing on our politics
As others have noted, in fact, Biden is proposing to extend roughly two-thirds of the Trump tax cuts. That’s what’s needed to prevent tax increases in 2026 on households making under $400k.
As others have noted, in fact, Biden is proposing to extend roughly two-thirds of the Trump tax cuts. That’s what’s needed to prevent tax increases in 2026 on households making under $400k.
🚨On the eve of the TikTok bill passing the Senate, we learn that, apparently, a ByteDance employee responsible for overseas user operations ghost-wrote @TikTokPolicy lobbyist Michael Beckerman’s letter to @RepGallagher and @CongressmanRaja last month. This comes after the…
🚨On the eve of the TikTok bill passing the Senate, we learn that, apparently, a ByteDance employee responsible for overseas user operations ghost-wrote @TikTokPolicy lobbyist Michael Beckerman’s letter to @RepGallagher and @CongressmanRaja last month. This comes after the…
In truth, it is Putin who is the warmonger. Putin who is the war-maker. The aggressor. The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives. Their nation's right to exist is under attack. Israel's right to exist, Taiwan's right to exist -- this is the essence. Don't call day night.
In truth, it is Putin who is the warmonger. Putin who is the war-maker. The aggressor. The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives. Their nation's right to exist is under attack. Israel's right to exist, Taiwan's right to exist -- this is the essence. Don't call day night.
Trump repeatedly tried to ban TikTok as president or force its divestiture. Trump reversed his position after a recent meeting with GOP mega donor Jeff Yass, who owns a multi-billion dollar stake in the company
Trump repeatedly tried to ban TikTok as president or force its divestiture. Trump reversed his position after a recent meeting with GOP mega donor Jeff Yass, who owns a multi-billion dollar stake in the company
The only exit strategy in the fight for freedom from terror and slavery is winning. Because the bad guys don’t stop when you leave; they see you are weak and keep taking more.
The only exit strategy in the fight for freedom from terror and slavery is winning. Because the bad guys don’t stop when you leave; they see you are weak and keep taking more.
"Drink more, tweet less. Get to know your colleagues in real life before trashing them on social media." - departing Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisconsin) congress.gov/118/crec/2024/…
Basically all congressional Republicans are deeply conservative. The debates among Republicans today are purely tactical and strategic…not philosophical. This is fundamentally different than even during the W administration.
Basically all congressional Republicans are deeply conservative. The debates among Republicans today are purely tactical and strategic…not philosophical. This is fundamentally different than even during the W administration.
This is a better proxy for Ukraine aid opposition within the GOP conference than the folks who voted against the bill. Nays padded by 50+ hope yes votes.
This is a better proxy for Ukraine aid opposition within the GOP conference than the folks who voted against the bill. Nays padded by 50+ hope yes votes.
Today, the House of Representatives advanced an essential investment in American strength. The task before us is urgent. It is once again the Senate’s turn to make history. My full statement:
Yes. Being included under the umbrella of national security supplemental via the rule that stitches it together, plus having been revised to meet Cantwell’s requirement, all suggests is likely.
Yes. Being included under the umbrella of national security supplemental via the rule that stitches it together, plus having been revised to meet Cantwell’s requirement, all suggests is likely.
Good 🧵. I'd point out that it's even worse than this, because it's asymetric: the HFC has achieved need for a bipartisan supermajority when GOP has the House, but if/when the Dems get control back, they'll rule as a bare majority. Hopeless strategy for moving policy right.
So they have succeeded in making the House look more like the Senate. But remember where this all started. They believed that this process would lead to more conservative lawmaking. In reality, it has led to less. A conservative majority can't function.
Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome
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157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
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Why bother with the back half of the curve when Treasury bills have higher yields and no duration risk? trib.al/KAbmpQY
A few thoughts on the new edition 🧵 govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GP…
Fascinating article. In Anglophone countries (US, UK, Canada, Australia, etc.), immigrants... 1. ...tend to pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits; 2. ...are underrepresented in prisons; 3. ...show more upward mobility than immigrants in Europe. on.ft.com/3QmwwMN
Maybe try zooming out for more perspective....
The ghost of Hugo Chavez corrupted Dominion’s voting machines and North Koreans delivered false ballots by boat to Maine >>> [many years later] >>> some people told pollsters they signed their spouse’s absentee ballot for them.
About one in five mail-in ballots in the last election was fraudulent, handing Biden the presidency. We know this because the people who committed the fraud have admitted it in a new poll.
Real disposable personal income per capita is roughly consistent with CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Real consumption per capita is well above that forecast. Squaring the circle: the saving rate is low.
This is what Shoigu's arrested deputy Timur Ivanov's estate in the Tver region looks like - eight hectares on the banks of the Volga River, with a pink tea hall, billiard room, fountains, and everything else. Modern Russia is still the same tsarism, nobles, and serfs.
Russian deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov (Shoigu's deputy) has been detained. He is accused of accepting bribes - Russian Investigative Committee. Peskov said that Putin and Shoigu are aware of the situation. Timur Ivanov has been a Russian deputy defense minister since…
Great letter from @George_A_Callas @Arnold_Ventures: "Smart, principled tax reform prioritizes (1) broadening the tax base ... (2) simplifying the tax code, (3) increasing horizontal equity ... and (4) providing stability and certainty to taxpayers." craftmediabucket.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/AV-SFR…
Following the @WaysandMeansGOP hearing on the #TCJA on April 11, Arnold Ventures submitted a statement for the record on ways to approach the tax code expirations in 2025 that focus on #taxreform and #fiscalsustainability. Read our statement: bit.ly/3UjZ7ne #TaxTwitter
I watched the whole thing like I watched “Mind Hunter.” A chilling window into the psyche being cultivated on American college campuses. I wish this was unrepresentative. I don’t think it is. What’s unique is the lack of discretion in his willingness to publicize his views.
Here is the full Khymani James live-stream that includes his disciplinary meeting with Columbia University over making threatening social media posts. I saved you all the first 30 minutes where he rants with a friend and started with the school meeting.
Fun fact I didn't realize until I looked it up yesterday for pod-fodder: GOP votes for Ukraine $ 9/28/23- 101 for $300 Million 4/20/24- 101 for $60.8 Billion Nays actually came down from 117 to 112 210 Dems each time, so 311 total for both roll calls
CEO of Norway's $1.6T oil fund: "There’s a mindset issue in terms of acceptance of mistakes and risks. You go bust in America, you get another chance. In Europe, you’re dead" "We are not very ambitious... [T]he Americans just work harder" "[I]n America you have a lot of AI and…
Now ask yourself why.
BREAKING: Reuters reports that TikTok's owner ByteDance would prefer to 'shut down' its app in the US rather than sell it if all legal options are exhausted
In other news, former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) says he voted for Nikki Haley in Tuesday's primary, he'll prob write her name in in November and says "there is a non-trivial, significant minority of Republicans" in PA who won't vote for Trump. inquirer.com/politics/elect…
This is incorrect. The penalties here apply to Apple, Google, and other app store hosts. Not ByteDance or TikTok.
So technically under the law, TikTok does not actually HAVE to divest. They can instead pay a fine of $5,000 per user, which works out to... $850 billion.
Where have I heard this before?
Is inflation taking off again? Businesses don't think so: Atlanta Fed survey shows inflation expectations stable at slightly above 2 percent
What do we know about markups in the United States? Are they high? Are they rising? This week's newsletter covers the (part of a huge) literature and what we know at this point. It's not as simple as you might have heard. Otherwise, I wouldn't have needed 4k words 🧵
Biden's latest mass student loan forgiveness plan is really an *interest* forgiveness program. 92% of beneficiaries qualify for only the interest forgiveness parts of the plan. govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR…
very odd, they’re behaving in a manner that suggests they don’t want to succeed, and would prefer the company go to zero. unthinkable choices from a business perspective. almost as if bytedance isn’t being run by the CEO. but that would be crazy.
NEWS: ByteDance is exploring selling TikTok’s U.S. business without the algorithm They would preferably sell to companies outside the tech industry.
On Feb 1 QRA the Treasury announced they would sell over 1TN gross coupons in Q2. On May 1st what will they do? You don't need a PHD to say supply mattered