OC Beach Status @OCBeachStatus

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast MATERIAL CHANGE: Friday’s Orange County surf forecast has increased as the next long-period south swell arrives. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 22, 2026 — 12:34 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; MODERATE beachgoer risk today, HIGH Friday Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW NWS San Diego has increased Friday’s Orange County forecast from 2–4 ft/local 5-ft sets to 3–5 ft with sets to 6 ft, while maintaining HIGH rip-current risk. Friday morning’s Newport astronomical high also rises to 5.3 ft at 7:56 AM. The combination warrants more attention than indicated in this morning’s report, although it does not currently justify HIGH property risk. Today remains 2–4 ft with sets to 6 ft and MODERATE rip-current risk. Beach/erosion risk is MODERATE; immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains LOW. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh regional measurements show the south-swell energy has not disappeared: Capistrano Beach Nearshore about 4.3 ft at 14 sec from 211° SSW; Green Beach Offshore 3.3 ft/14 sec/195° SSW; San Pedro South 4.6 ft/15 sec/184° S; Santa Monica Bay 3.6 ft/14 sec/205° SSW. These are measured sea-state heights, not breaking surf. Local visual observations support the buoy picture: Surfline currently shows 3–4 ft at Doheny and Salt Creek, 4–5 ft at Strands and 4–6 ft+ at Lower Trestles, demonstrating the stronger response at south-swell-exposed beaches. Observation vs forecast: today’s measurements remain consistent with 2–4 ft/local 6-ft surf. The important change is tomorrow: NWS now expects the incoming long-period south swell to produce larger surf than forecast this morning. Water level: Newport has no live NOAA water-level gauge, so the active Southern California stations were checked. A reliable same-time measured-versus-predicted comparison still could not be retrieved for this issuance. Therefore we cannot responsibly say how many inches above or below the predicted tide the ocean is running, and no estimate is being substituted. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE. 2–4 ft/local 6-ft sets; MODERATE rip-current risk. Property risk LOW. Friday — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–5 ft/local 6-ft sets with HIGH rip-current risk. Morning high 5.3 ft. This is today’s material forecast change. Saturday — MODERATE. Morning tide rises to about 5.8 ft. Continued swell and already-eroded beaches support localized run-up/erosion concern. Sunday — MODERATE watch. Morning high reaches about 6.2 ft. Remaining south-swell energy and the measured ocean level relative to predicted tide will determine whether risk needs upgrading. Monday — MODERATE watch. Newport astronomical high reaches roughly 6.5 ft. Current guidance does not yet establish the wave/high-water combination needed for HIGH property risk. TROPICAL STORMS Tropical Storm Vance is strengthening well south of Mexico and is forecast to become a hurricane. NHC expects Vance-generated swells to affect southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend; no Southern California coastal-risk trigger is established at this time. Sources: NWS San Diego; CDIP/NDBC; NOAA Tides & Currents; NHC; Surfline/local observations; Dana Point/Strand Beach ground-truth calibration.

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast MATERIAL CHANGE: today’s Orange County surf and rip-current risk is higher than stated in the 6:30 AM report. Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 — 9:34 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW NWS San Diego’s current Orange County forecast is 3–5 ft surf with sets to 6 ft and HIGH rip-current risk today, not 2–4 ft/sets to 5 ft as stated in the earlier report. A slight thunderstorm chance is also present. This correction is material for beachgoers and exposed south-facing beaches. Beachgoer/public-access risk is HIGH; beach/erosion risk MODERATE; immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains LOW. No significant coastal-flood signal is established today. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS The closest fresh measurement, Capistrano Beach Nearshore, reported 3.9 ft significant wave height, 14 sec, from 205° SSW at 4:56 AM, rising from 3.3 ft at 3:56 AM. This confirms meaningful long-period south-swell energy remains near Dana Point. Freshness across several other preferred CDIP stations is poorer this morning, so older observations are not substituted as current. Observation vs forecast: Capistrano’s measured 14-sec SSW energy supports the NWS 3–5 ft/local 6-ft breaking-surf forecast and contradicts the faster decline implied by the earlier report. Surfline also shows 5–7 ft observed at Lower Trestles, illustrating how shoreline exposure can amplify the same regional swell. WATER LEVEL: The new methodology was actively applied. Newport does not have a current continuous NOAA water-level observation, so active Southern California gauges were checked instead. Santa Monica was reporting fresh meteorological data through 8:18 AM, but its water-level value was not available in the accessible feed; La Jolla’s accessible observations were also missing the water-level field. Therefore, we cannot responsibly state how many inches above or below the predicted tide the ocean is running this morning, and no estimate is being substituted. For context, La Jolla’s astronomical high was 4.4 ft at 7:17 AM. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–5 ft, sets to 6 ft. Long-period run-up remains possible at exposed beaches; property risk LOW. Thursday — LOW→MODERATE. South swell gradually eases while showers, thunderstorms and locally gusty winds accompany the passing low. Friday — LOW expected. No significant wave/high-water overlap currently established. Saturday — MODERATE watch. Astronomical tides continue rising while Orange County beaches remain erosion-sensitive. Sunday — MODERATE watch. This remains the five-day window requiring the closest total-water-level monitoring as tides rise further. Risk will depend on remaining swell and, importantly, whether measured ocean levels begin running above predicted tides. Sources: NWS San Diego; CDIP/NDBC; NOAA water-level network; Surfline; Dana Point/Strand Beach ground-truth calibration.

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast South swell is easing, but exposed beaches remain active; rising weekend tides are the next coastal-risk window to watch. Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 — 7:15 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; MODERATE for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW Orange County’s long-period south swell is gradually declining. NWS San Diego’s latest beach guidance calls for 2–4 ft surf with sets to 5 ft today, and its overnight discussion says surf and tides are diminishing. No Orange County coastal warning or beach advisory is currently in effect. Local conditions remain uneven: Surfline shows roughly 4–5 ft at Strands/Salt Creek, 5–7 ft at Huntington Pier and 6–8 ft at the highly south-swell-sensitive Wedge. Beachgoer and erosion risk therefore remain MODERATE at exposed beaches, while immediately ocean-adjacent property risk is LOW today. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh CDIP measurements confirm that meaningful long-period energy remains. Capistrano Beach Nearshore measured about 3.7 ft at 14.3 sec from 210° SSW; Green Beach Offshore 4.3 ft/14.3 sec/199° SSW; Oceanside Offshore 3.3 ft/15.4 sec/204° SSW; San Pedro South 3.4 ft/14.3 sec/177° S. These are measured sea-state heights, not breaking surf. Observation vs forecast: the buoy network shows a gradual decline, consistent with NWS, but exposed Orange County breaks are still producing larger surf than the countywide 2–4 ft headline suggests. WATER LEVEL: We have corrected the monitoring method. NOAA’s Newport Bay Entrance station provides tide predictions, but its continuous water-level observation record ended in 1994. From now on, when Newport has no live measurement, the report will use an active Southern California NOAA gauge and compare the actual ocean level with the predicted tide at the same time. For this issuance, the active Los Angeles, La Jolla, Santa Monica and San Diego feeds were checked, but the live sources available to this run did not return a usable current water-level value. Therefore, no estimate is being made of how far above or below the predicted tide the ocean is running. Newport’s predicted high this morning is about 4.5 ft. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE beach risk / LOW property risk. 2–4 ft, sets to 5 ft. South swell continues easing. Thursday — LOW→MODERATE. Swell continues to decline, but showers, possible thunderstorms and gusty marine winds accompany a passing storm system. Newport morning high rises to about 4.9 ft. Friday — LOW coastal risk expected. Morning high rises to about 5.4 ft. Saturday — MODERATE watch. Morning high reaches about 5.8 ft. Surf should be lower, but the rising tide matters because beaches remain depleted. Sunday — MODERATE watch. Morning high reaches about 6.2 ft, the highest in this five-day window. The key question is how much swell remains and whether measured ocean levels run above the predicted tide. TROPICAL STORMS NHC says a disturbance south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has a near-100% chance of becoming a tropical depression today. It is expected to remain well offshore southern Mexico. This is not currently a Southern California coastal-risk trigger. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Elevated background sea level remains important as astronomical tides rise toward the weekend. Rather than adding an assumed Kelvin-wave amount, the analysis will now prioritize the measured difference between actual ocean level and predicted tide whenever an active gauge provides it. Sources: NWS San Diego; NHC; CDIP/NDBC buoy network; NOAA Tides & Currents; Surfline; direct Dana Point/Strand Beach ground truth.

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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Elevated south swell will persist through Wednesday — longer than this morning’s forecast indicated. Forecast issued: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 — 6:30 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW MATERIAL CHANGE: NWS San Diego’s 12:11 PM update now keeps Orange County at 3–5 ft surf with sets to 6 ft and HIGH rip-current risk through Wednesday. This morning’s report expected Wednesday to begin easing toward LOW→MODERATE. The Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through 11 PM tonight, with minor erosion possible at south-facing beaches. Beachgoer/public-access risk remains HIGH. Beach/erosion risk remains MODERATE. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains LOW: Newport’s astronomical high is only about 4.4–4.6 ft this evening, and no coastal-flood advisory/warning is in effect. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS The latest buoy observations independently verifiable through the sources available to this run are not fresh enough to label “current,” so they are timestamped rather than silently substituted. Long Beach Channel measured 5.3 ft significant wave height at 15.4 sec from 198° SSW at 10:30 AM, down from 5.8 ft/15.4 sec/204° at 8 AM. San Pedro South measured 4.1 ft/15.4 sec/178° S at 8 AM. Santa Monica Basin measured 3.9 ft/15 sec/156° SSE at 8:20 AM. A Newport-area buoy observation at 3:56 PM showed 3.9 ft, but a reliable direction was not available. Observation vs forecast: the verified morning network showed the long-period south swell easing only slowly, consistent with NWS extending 3–5 ft/local 6-ft surf through Wednesday rather than a rapid decline. Fresh Capistrano Beach Nearshore data and a fresh NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be independently verified for this issuance; neither is inferred. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Tuesday (Today) — MODERATE; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–5 ft/local 6-ft sets through evening. Minor erosion/run-up possible; property-flood risk LOW. Wednesday — MODERATE; HIGH beachgoer risk. NWS now keeps 3–5 ft/local 6-ft surf through Wednesday. This is the principal change from the morning report. Thursday — LOW→MODERATE. NWS: 2–4 ft, sets to 5 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk. Slight thunderstorm chance as the Pacific system moves through. Friday — LOW→MODERATE. Residual swell and weather-system effects remain possible, but no significant total-water-level overlap is established. Saturday — LOW currently expected. No credible HIGH/SEVERE coastal hazard is established in the five-day window. Sources: NWS San Diego Surf Zone Forecast/Beach Hazards Statement; CDIP/NDBC buoy network; NOAA water-level framework; Surfline regional guidance; Dana Point/Strand Beach ground-truth calibration.

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Long-period south swell remains elevated; dangerous rip currents continue, but modest tides limit coastal-flood risk. Forecast issued: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 — 6:34 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW Long-period S–SSW swell remains firmly established across Southern California this morning. Surfline shows 4–5 ft at Strands and Salt Creek, 6–8 ft at Lower Trestles and Huntington Beach Pier, and 8–10 ft at the highly south-swell-sensitive Wedge. The principal Orange County hazard remains dangerous rip currents and localized erosion/run-up at exposed beaches. Beachgoer/public-access risk is HIGH; beach/erosion risk is MODERATE. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains LOW because today’s astronomical tides are modest and no new coastal-flood signal is established. Saturday’s Strand video remains useful calibration: waves and whitewater reached the revetment below a 4-ft tide without significant overtopping, confirming that the severely eroded beach provides little remaining sand buffer. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh observations confirm substantial long-period energy. Capistrano Beach Nearshore measured 4.9 ft significant wave height (Hs) at 15.4 sec from 207° SSW at 1:30 AM. At 4:00 AM, Long Beach Channel measured 5.9 ft/15.4 sec from 236° SW; San Pedro measured 4.2 ft/15.4 sec from 177° S; Santa Cruz Basin measured 4.7 ft/13.3 sec from 203° SSW. These are measured sea-state heights, not breaking surf. Observation vs forecast: measurements support continued elevated surf and strong rip currents rather than a rapid overnight fade. Surfline’s current Orange County model similarly shows roughly 3.5–3.7 ft of 16-sec S–SSW swell before shoreline amplification. There is no measured evidence of energy approaching the September 7 Dana Point/Capistrano Beach peak-event calibration. A fresh directly comparable NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be verified before issuance, so none is inferred. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Tuesday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. Long-period south swell remains elevated. Localized run-up/minor erosion remain possible; property-flood risk LOW. Wednesday — LOW→MODERATE. South-swell energy gradually eases while a Pacific weather system approaches. Thursday — LOW coastal risk expected. Wetter/windier weather is possible, but no significant coastal-flood signal is established. Friday — LOW. Current guidance shows no important wave/high-water overlap. Saturday — LOW currently expected. No credible HIGH/SEVERE Southern California coastal hazard is established in the five-day window. TROPICAL STORMS NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific this morning. Trudy became a remnant low Monday night and NHC ended advisories. Tropical activity is therefore not a current Southern California coastal-risk driver. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Background sea level remains relevant after this month’s elevated-water episodes. Surfline continues to flag actual Southern California tides roughly 1–1.5 ft above astronomical predictions, but without a fresh verified Newport residual that estimate is not mechanically added to today’s tide. Observed total water level remains the anchor. Sources: NWS San Diego; NHC; CDIP/NDBC buoy network; NOAA water-level framework; Surfline regional guidance; direct Strand Beach ground truth.

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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Long-period south swell remains elevated; dangerous rip currents and localized beach erosion continue, while low tides limit property-flood risk. Forecast issued: Monday, October 19, 2026 — 7:57 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW NWS San Diego renewed the Beach Hazards Statement at 1:23 AM through 9 AM Tuesday: 3–6 ft surf with local 7-ft sets, highest at south- and southwest-facing beaches, dangerous rip currents and possible minor erosion on south-facing beaches. The key protective factor remains total water level. Newport Bay Entrance’s predicted high this morning was only about 3.9 ft at 6:56 AM, with another roughly 4.3-ft high near 4:56 PM. Those modest astronomical tides greatly reduce the compound-flooding setup that produced the October Newport/Long Beach impacts. Beach/erosion risk is MODERATE; beachgoer/public-access risk HIGH; immediately ocean-adjacent property risk LOW. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh Southern California buoy data confirm substantial long-period southern energy. Long Beach Channel measured 5.7 ft significant wave height (Hs) at 18.2 sec from 188° S at 3:00 AM, up from 5.3 ft at 1:30 AM. Santa Cruz Basin was running about 4–5 ft with a 15-sec southerly swell component in the latest morning data. Surfline’s regional buoy display also shows the swell remaining dominated by roughly 15–18 sec energy from the S–SSW. The closest Capistrano Beach Nearshore station did not provide a sufficiently fresh independently verifiable reading before issuance, so an older value is not substituted as current. Observation vs forecast: measured long-period energy supports the NWS 3–6 ft/local 7-ft surf forecast. There is no verified evidence of a regional extreme-energy event comparable with September 7. A fresh NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be verified, so none is inferred. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Monday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–6 ft/local 7-ft surf, strongest at south-facing beaches. Long-period run-up and minor erosion are possible, but modest tides keep property-flood risk LOW. Tuesday — MODERATE early, easing later. Beach Hazards Statement runs through 9 AM. Residual south swell and dangerous currents remain the main hazards. Wednesday — LOW→MODERATE. Swell should gradually ease; rain chances increase as a Pacific system approaches. Thursday — LOW coastal risk expected on current guidance. Weather turns cooler/wetter, but no material coastal-flood signal is established. Friday — LOW expected. No credible HIGH/SEVERE Southern California coastal hazard is established in the current five-day window. TROPICAL STORMS Trudy has weakened rapidly to a tropical storm. NHC reported 60-mph winds early Monday, with the system moving away from mainland Mexico and expected to become post-tropical. Trudy-generated swells remain hazardous along parts of Mexico, but there is no verified new Southern California coastal-risk trigger from the storm. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL The elevated regional sea-level background remains relevant after this month’s flooding, but no fresh Newport residual was verified this morning. No fixed Kelvin-wave increment is added to predicted tides; measured total water level remains the preferred anchor. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS Long-period south swell remains unfavorable for meaningful sand recovery at exposed, already-eroded beaches. Saturday’s Strand video showed waves and whitewater reaching the revetment even with the tide below 4 ft, confirming that very little sand buffer remains there. Sources: NWS San Diego; NHC; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; NOAA tide/water-level framework; Surfline regional observations; direct Strand Beach ground truth.

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Long-period south swell is elevated this morning; HIGH rip-current risk, but modest tides keep coastal-flood risk low. Forecast issued: Sunday, October 18, 2026 — 6:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW Orange County is entering another day of elevated long-period south swell. NWS San Diego has a Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM today through Tuesday morning and forecasts 3–5 ft surf today with HIGH rip-current risk. Its broader outlook calls for 3–6 ft surf with local 7-ft sets at south- and southwest-facing beaches through at least Wednesday. The important limiting factor is water level. Newport Beach astronomical highs are only 3.6 ft at 7:09 AM and 4.2 ft at 3:27 PM today. NWS says high tides are not particularly high and coastal-flood risk is minimal. Beachgoer risk is HIGH; beach/erosion risk is MODERATE; immediately ocean-adjacent property risk is LOW on current evidence. Saturday’s Strand Beach video remains useful ground truth: waves and whitewater were reaching the revetment with the tide below 4 ft, but there was no significant overtopping. The severely eroded beach leaves little sand buffer, so long-period run-up deserves attention even without high tides. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh measurements this morning show substantial long-period southern energy. Oceanside Offshore measured 3.9 ft at 17 sec from 199° SSW at 6:56 AM; San Clemente Basin 3.9 ft at 17 sec from 188° S at 6:50 AM; Long Beach Channel was about 4.9 ft at 17 sec from SSW shortly before issuance. These are measured sea-state heights, not breaking-wave heights. Capistrano Beach Nearshore’s last independently verified reading available to this run was older—4.4 ft at 18.2 sec from 211° SSW at 6:30 PM Saturday—so it is not presented as current. Observation vs forecast: the buoy network confirms the long-period south swell is fully established and supports elevated surf/rip-current guidance, but there is no measured evidence of a September 7-type wave-impact event. A fresh NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be verified, so none is inferred. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Sunday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–5 ft surf. Long-period energy plus depleted beaches can produce localized run-up/erosion, but modest tides limit property flooding. Monday — MODERATE; HIGH beachgoer risk. Orange County 3–5 ft, with mixed south 190° and west 270° swell. Newport highs remain only 3.8–4.2 ft. Tuesday — MODERATE beach risk. Multiple south swells continue; property-flood risk remains LOW unless measured water levels or surf materially exceed forecast. Wednesday — MODERATE beach/erosion risk currently expected. NWS keeps 3–6 ft/local 7-ft surf possible through at least Wednesday. Rain increases Wednesday night. Thursday — LOW→MODERATE coastal risk expected as swell evolution becomes less certain. A Pacific low should bring widespread light-to-moderate rain Wednesday night–Thursday, but no significant coastal-flood signal is established. TROPICAL STORMS Hurricane Trudy remains a Category 2 hurricane near Mexico’s west-central coast, with roughly 100–105 mph winds early Sunday. Its center is expected to remain near the Mexican coast today before moving south of Baja California. Trudy remains an input, not a Southern California risk trigger; any Orange County contribution must appear in swell propagation and measured buoys. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL The elevated regional sea-level background remains relevant after this month’s flooding, but no fresh Newport residual was verified this morning. No fixed Kelvin-wave increment is added to predicted tides Sources: NWS San Diego Surf Zone Forecast/AFD; NHC; CDIP/NDBC buoy network; NOAA water-level framework; Surfline/local surf guidance; direct Strand Beach ground truth.

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Long-period south swell is building; waves are already reaching the Dana Point revetment despite a tide below 4 feet. Forecast issued: Saturday, October 17, 2026 — 2:55 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW Direct video from Strand Beach this morning shows waves and whitewater reaching the revetment while the tide was below 4 feet. Individual waves were not unusually large and there was no significant overtopping, but the severely eroded beach provides little remaining sand buffer to absorb incoming wave energy. That does not indicate a major property-impact event today. It does show why the condition of the beach matters as additional long-period south swell arrives. NWS San Diego’s latest afternoon update now expects 3–6 ft surf with local sets to 7 ft at south- and southwest-facing beaches from Sunday through at least Wednesday. High tides will not be particularly high, so NWS considers coastal-flood risk minimal. Beachgoer/public-access risk is HIGH from strong rip currents. Beach/erosion risk is MODERATE, especially at exposed and already-eroded beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains LOW on current tide and surf projections. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh measurements confirm long-period southern energy. At 2:00 PM, Green Beach Offshore measured about 2.6 ft at 18 sec from 194° SSW; Mission Bay West measured 3.3 ft at 13 sec from 188° S at 1:56 PM, with an 18-sec SSW component. Capistrano Beach Nearshore measured 3.0 ft at 20 sec from 218° SW at 11:56 AM. These are measured sea-state heights, not breaking-wave heights. Observation vs forecast: measured swell and today’s Strand video confirm meaningful long-period energy is reaching the coast, but neither indicates anything approaching the September 7 Dana Point/Capistrano Beach peak event. A fresh directly comparable NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be verified, so none is inferred. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Saturday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. NWS: 3–5 ft, sets to 6 ft. Property risk LOW. Sunday — MODERATE; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–6 ft, local sets to 7 ft. Long-period run-up and localized erosion are the principal concerns; modest tides limit compound flooding. Monday — MODERATE. Multiple south swells maintain elevated surf and rip currents; LOW property-flood risk unless observations materially exceed forecast. Tuesday — MODERATE. NWS now expects elevated 3–6 ft surf/local 7-ft sets to continue. Wednesday — MODERATE beach risk currently expected. NWS extends elevated south-swell surf through at least Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday–Thursday, but no significant coastal-flood signal is established. TROPICAL STORMS Hurricane Trudy strengthened to 100 mph by NHC’s 3 PM CST update and is about 115 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, moving northwest at 10 mph. Trudy is forecast near west-central Mexico tonight and Sunday. This intensity change alone is not a Southern California coastal-risk trigger; any later Orange County contribution must be confirmed by swell propagation and the buoy network. Sources: NWS San Diego Surf Zone Forecast/AFD; NHC; CDIP/NDBC buoy network; NOAA water-level framework; Surfline buoy/local guidance; direct Strand Beach video ground truth.

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast South swell is strengthening — HIGH rip-current risk today and larger surf Sunday, but low tides limit property-flood risk. Forecast issued: Saturday, October 17, 2026 — 6:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW The new south swell is arriving. NWS San Diego’s fresh 12:56 AM forecast has increased Orange County to 3–5 ft surf with sets to 6 ft today, then 3–6 ft with sets to 7 ft Sunday, both with HIGH rip-current risk. The swell is from about 190°. This raises beachgoer and localized erosion risk, but the total-water-level setup is much less threatening than earlier October events: Newport’s astronomical high is only 4.3 ft at 1:32 PM today and 4.2 ft Sunday afternoon. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk therefore remains LOW on present evidence. Surfline’s morning observations already show the exposure difference: Strands 3–4+ ft, Salt Creek 4–5 ft, T-Street 4–5 ft, Lower Trestles 4–6+ ft and sheltered Doheny 2–3 ft. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS The buoy network confirms increasing long-period southern energy. Capistrano Beach Nearshore measured 2.6 ft at 14 sec from 210° SSW at 2:56 AM, including a separate 1-ft component at 20 sec. Green Beach Offshore was 3.3 ft/14 sec/198°, and Santa Cruz Basin 3.0 ft/14 sec/202° around 3 AM. Earlier spectral data at Capistrano showed 3.2 ft at 20 sec from 211° SSW at 12:30 AM—important because even moderate wave height at that period carries substantial run-up energy. San Pedro South measured 2.3 ft/14.3 sec from the south around 12:30 AM. Observation vs forecast: the swell increase is now measurable, supporting NWS’s higher shoreline forecast, but the buoy network does not indicate anything remotely comparable to the September 7 Dana Point/Capistrano Beach peak event. A fresh NOAA observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be verified before issuance, so none is inferred. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Saturday (Today) — MODERATE; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–5 ft, sets to 6 ft. Long-period south swell strengthens through the day. Property-flood risk LOW. Sunday — MODERATE; HIGH beachgoer risk. Peak current NWS forecast: 3–6 ft, sets to 7 ft. Localized erosion/run-up becomes more important at exposed south-facing beaches, but the modest tide substantially limits compound flooding. Monday — MODERATE beach risk / LOW property risk. Elevated south-swell energy likely persists; watch nearshore buoys for whether Sunday’s increase holds or begins decaying. Tuesday — LOW→MODERATE. Current evidence favors decreasing coastal risk unless the tropical swell picture changes. Wednesday — LOW expected. No credible HIGH/SEVERE Southern California coastal hazard is established beyond the current swell episode. TROPICAL STORMS Hurricane Trudy has weakened substantially from Friday’s Category 3 peak. NHC’s 6 AM CST advisory has Trudy at 90 mph, moving northwest at 8 mph about 190 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, with the center expected near Mexico’s west-central coast later today into Sunday. Trudy remains important to monitor, but its changing intensity is not itself an Orange County risk trigger. Any Southern California escalation requires a credible swell pathway followed by confirmation through the offshore-to-nearshore buoy network. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Background water remains elevated. Surfline estimate actual Southern California tides roughly 1–1.5 ft above astronomical predictions in association with the Kelvin-wave episode. That estimate is not mechanically added to today’s predicted tide; verified observed total water level remains the preferred measure. Sources: NWS San Diego Surf Zone Forecast; NHC; CDIP/NDBC buoy network; NOAA tide/water-level framework; Surfline South Orange County observations; Dana Point/Strand Beach ground-truth calibration. x.com/accuweather/st…

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast New south swell raises Monday–Tuesday beach risk; coastal-flood risk remains low. Forecast issued: Saturday, October 17, 2026 — 12:30 AM PDT Current risk: LOW overall; MODERATE for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW MATERIAL CHANGE: NWS San Diego now expects a south swell to build Sunday and Monday, producing 3–5 ft surf with sets to 7 ft Monday and Tuesday. This raises beachgoer/public-access risk and localized erosion risk, but NWS specifically says high tides will not be particularly high and coastal-flood risk remains minimal. That is a change from Friday morning’s outlook, which kept coastal risk LOW through Tuesday. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk remains LOW on current guidance; nothing presently approaches the September 7 Dana Point/Capistrano Beach peak-event calibration. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh regional observations confirm long-period southern energy is already present but do not show a major surge yet. At 10 PM Friday, San Nicolas Island measured 3.8 ft significant wave height (Hs), 15.4 sec, from 178° S. Around 10 PM, Oceanside Offshore measured 3.0 ft/13 sec from 205° SSW and Mission Bay West 3.0 ft/14 sec from 190° S. Earlier at 6:30 PM, Capistrano Beach Nearshore measured 3.0 ft/14.3 sec from 210° SSW; Long Beach Channel measured 3.2 ft/15.4 sec from 184° S. These are measured sea-state heights, not breaking surf. Observation vs forecast: current buoys support an energetic south-swell background, but the forecast Monday–Tuesday increase has not yet arrived at full strength. A fresh directly comparable Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual was not verified for this run, so none is inferred. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Saturday (Today) — LOW overall; MODERATE beachgoer risk. Existing south swell continues without a significant high-water overlap. Sunday — LOW→MODERATE. New south swell begins increasing; watch buoy period, direction and energy for confirmation. Monday — MODERATE beach/public-access risk; LOW property-flood risk. NWS: 3–5 ft surf, sets to 7 ft. Stronger rip currents and localized erosion become the main concerns. Tuesday — MODERATE beach/public-access risk; LOW property-flood risk. Elevated 3–5 ft surf/sets to 7 ft may persist. High tides are not expected to create the compound total-water-level problem seen earlier this month. Wednesday — LOW→MODERATE depending on swell decay. No credible severe coastal hazard is established beyond day 5. TROPICAL STORMS Major Hurricane Trudy remains a serious threat to Mexico’s Pacific coast, but its intensity change alone is not a Southern California risk trigger. The new Orange County risk change is the forecast south-swell increase; its actual magnitude will be judged from offshore-to-nearshore buoy propagation and shoreline response. Sources: NWS San Diego AFD/beach guidance; NHC; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; NOAA water-level framework; Surfline regional guidance; Dana Point/Strand Beach ground-truth calibration. x.com/Surflick/statu…

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Coastal-flood risk has eased sharply; Friday’s main hazard is moderate rip-current risk, while Major Hurricane Trudy is not yet a Southern California risk trigger. Forecast issued: Friday, October 16, 2026 — 6:30 AM PDT Current risk: LOW overall; MODERATE for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW Orange County has moved out of the elevated-water episode that drove recent flooding and erosion. NWS San Diego now forecasts only 2–4 ft surf today with a MODERATE rip-current risk and a 4.7-ft Newport Beach high tide at 12:18 PM. No Orange County coastal flood or beach-hazard product is in effect. Beach/erosion risk is LOW, beachgoer risk MODERATE, and immediately ocean-adjacent property risk LOW. This is a substantial de-escalation from the September 7 Strand Beach wave-impact event and last week’s Newport/Long Beach total-water-level flooding. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS The live CDIP/NDBC station pages available before issuance did not provide sufficiently fresh timestamps for the key Orange County offshore-to-nearshore stations. I will not recycle older readings as current. A fresh NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual also could not be verified, so no residual is inferred. Current shoreline guidance shows the expected exposure differences: Strands about 3–4 ft+, Huntington Pier Southside 4–6 ft+, and T-Street 4–6 ft. That supports localized surf amplification but not a regional coastal-risk escalation. Observation vs forecast: available shoreline conditions are broadly consistent with NWS’s lower 2–4 ft countywide forecast; there is no verified buoy or shoreline evidence of a new regional energy surge. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Friday (Today) — LOW overall; MODERATE beachgoer risk. 2–4 ft Orange County surf; 4.7-ft Newport high at 12:18 PM. Strong offshore/Santa Ana winds and heat are the dominant weather issues, not coastal flooding. Saturday — LOW. NWS forecasts 1–3 ft Orange County surf, LOW rip-current risk and a 4.3-ft high at 1:32 PM. Sunday — LOW. Offshore winds weaken; no significant surf/high-water overlap indicated. Monday — LOW expected. Cooler pattern develops. Tuesday — LOW coastal risk expected. A Pacific low may bring widespread rain next week, but current NWS guidance does not establish a material coastal-wave/flood hazard. Continue watching beyond day 5 as that system evolves. TROPICAL STORMS Trudy rapidly intensified overnight into a Category 3 major hurricane, with NHC reporting 120-mph winds early Friday about 240 miles southwest of Acapulco, moving northwest at 6 mph. It is forecast to strengthen further while approaching southwestern/west-central Mexico this weekend. That is a major storm development but not yet a Southern California coastal-risk change. Surfline expects Trudy’s meaningful swell impact primarily for Cabo/eastern Baja this weekend; any Orange County escalation will require a credible swell signal in models and then the offshore-to-nearshore buoy network. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Background sea level remains elevated in the ongoing El Niño/Kelvin-wave environment, but the compound high-water hazard has eased as astronomical tides fall. No fixed Kelvin-wave increment is added to predicted tides; measured total water level remains the preferred anchor. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS Conditions are becoming more favorable for natural sand recovery as total water levels and regional surf decline, although already stripped beaches remain more vulnerable to the next energetic swell. Sources: NWS San Diego Surf Zone Forecast/AFD; NHC; CDIP/NDBC network; NOAA water-level/Kelvin-wave framework; Surfline Orange County observations and tropical-swell guidance; Strand Beach ground-truth calibration. In the meantime…

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Long-period south swell and elevated water keep Thursday risk MODERATE; coastal-flood risk drops after today. Forecast issued: Thursday, October 15, 2026 — 6:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW Today is the last elevated-water day of this event. NWS San Diego continues a Beach Hazards Statement through 2 PM: 3–5 ft surf with sets to 6 ft, long-period south swell and elevated late-morning water levels capable of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. NWS says high tides fall below 6.5 ft after today. The Orange County Surf Zone Forecast calls for 3–6 ft surf with sets to 7 ft and HIGH rip-current risk. Newport’s astronomical high tide is 5.1 ft at 11:36 AM. The difference between that astronomical prediction and NWS’s broader 6.5–7 ft elevated-water wording reinforces why total water level—not tide prediction alone—remains central to flood risk. Beachgoer/public-access risk is HIGH. Beach/erosion risk is MODERATE, locally higher at depleted/exposed beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk is MODERATE around late morning, then declines. Current conditions remain well below the September 7 Strand wave-impact calibration. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS The freshest verified NDBC/CDIP observations available before issuance show Capistrano Beach Nearshore 2.6 ft significant wave height (Hs), 15 sec, SSW 205° at 12:26 AM; Long Beach Channel 3.6 ft, 15 sec, SSW 201° at 1:26 AM; San Pedro South 3.6 ft, 15 sec, S 187° at 12:26 AM. These are measured sea-state heights, not breaking surf. All retain long-period energy, but the network has eased materially from Wednesday morning and shows no new offshore surge. A fresh NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be verified before issuance, so no residual is inferred. Observation vs forecast: buoy heights are modest, but 15-sec energy plus shoreline focusing supports locally larger 3–7 ft breaking surf. Surfline currently shows about 4–5 ft at Strands/Salt Creek, 3–4 ft at Doheny and 6–8 ft at Lower Trestles—strong geographic exposure differences rather than a region-wide escalation. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Thursday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. Main compound window is late morning. Minor flooding/erosion remains possible at vulnerable beaches. Friday — LOW→MODERATE. NWS forecasts 3–5 ft surf, sets to 6 ft, with HIGH rip-current risk; Newport high tide falls to 4.7 ft at 12:18 PM. Saturday — LOW property/flood risk expected. Persistent south swell remains, but the elevated-water component is reduced. Sunday — LOW expected. Monday — LOW expected. No credible beyond-day-5 coastal hazard currently exceeds today. TROPICAL STORMS Tropical Storm Simon has weakened to 60 mph and is nearly stationary south of Baja California Sur; NHC expects gradual weakening. Hurricane Trudy has strengthened to 75 mph well south of Mexico and is moving northwest. Neither currently establishes a material Southern California coastal-risk escalation; any future swell signal will be judged from measured buoys and nearshore models rather than storm category alone. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL Background sea level remains elevated, consistent with the ongoing coastally trapped Kelvin-wave episode. Its contribution is not mechanically added to astronomical tide; observed total water level/residual remains the preferred anchor. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS Still unfavorable through today’s high-water/swell overlap. Recovery conditions improve after Thursday as total water levels fall, although persistent south swell can continue moving sand at exposed beaches. Sources: NWS San Diego Surf Zone Forecast/Beach Hazards; NHC; NDBC/CDIP Southern California buoy network; NOAA sea-level framework; Surfline regional observations; Strand Beach ground-truth calibration.

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Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Elevated water and long-period south swell keep coastal risk MODERATE through Thursday; no major escalation is evident. Forecast issued: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 — 6:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for swimmers/rip currents at exposed beaches Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW The main Orange County hazard today is the combination of elevated late-morning water levels with persistent south-swell energy. NWS San Diego maintains a Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon: 3–5 ft surf with sets to 6 ft, strong rip currents, and 6.5–7 ft elevated high tides capable of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. This is materially below the September 7 Strand Beach wave-impact calibration and below last weekend’s Newport/Long Beach flooding episode. Property risk is MODERATE rather than HIGH because the surf is smaller and NWS expects only minor flooding, but depleted beaches and very low-lying oceanfront locations remain the most vulnerable. Surfline’s current regional observations/guidance show the expected exposure contrast: about 5–7 ft at Huntington State and Huntington Pier Southside, 6–8 ft at The Wedge, 4–6 ft at Strands/Salt Creek, and 3–4 ft+ at sheltered Doheny. MEASURED OCEAN CONDITIONS Fresh CDIP data show Capistrano Beach Nearshore at about 4.8 ft significant wave height (Hs), 18.2 sec, from 212° SW, while Santa Monica Bay is about 3.8 ft, 15.4 sec, from 212° SW. The long periods mean meaningful wave power and run-up potential remain even where measured heights are moderate. A fresh, directly comparable NOAA Newport observed-minus-predicted water-level residual could not be verified for this report, so no residual is being inferred or added to the tide. There is no important buoy-vs-forecast contradiction: measurements support persistent long-period southern energy and locally larger breaking surf at exposed beaches. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Wednesday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH swimmer/rip-current risk. 3–5 ft surf, sets to 6 ft, with elevated late-morning water levels. Minor flooding/erosion possible at vulnerable beaches. Thursday — MODERATE→LOW after the late-morning high tide. Similar 3–5 ft surf/sets to 6 ft. NWS says high tides fall below 6.5 ft after Thursday morning, reducing coastal-flood risk. Friday — LOW coastal-flood risk. Persistent south swell continues, but Santa Ana/offshore winds become the dominant regional weather issue. Saturday — LOW coastal-flood risk expected. Offshore winds remain important; no major surf/high-water overlap is indicated. Sunday — LOW expected. No credible coastal hazard beyond day 5 currently exceeds today–Thursday. TROPICAL STORMS Hurricane Simon unexpectedly re-intensified Tuesday night and NHC reported 110-mph winds at 8 PM MST, with some additional strengthening possible. Simon remains near west-central Mexico with large swells affecting Mexico/Baja California Sur. Its intensity change is not, by itself, a Southern California risk trigger; no material Simon-driven Orange County escalation is established in current observations. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL NOAA confirms a coastally trapped Kelvin wave is moving north along the West Coast and can temporarily raise sea level roughly 6–12 inches, with already-abnormally-high West Coast sea levels adding background vulnerability. That effect is not mechanically added to tide predictions; measured total water level remains the preferred anchor. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS Still unfavorable for meaningful recovery today: persistent long-period south swell and elevated water continue to work depleted beaches. Conditions improve after Thursday as the high-water contribution diminishes. Sources: NWS San Diego AFD/Beach Hazards; NHC; CDIP/NDBC; NOAA sea-level/Kelvin-wave analysis; Surfline regional observations; Strand Beach ground-truth calibration.

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Long-period southern swell is peaking today; HIGH beachgoer risk continues, but property risk remains well below September 7. Forecast issued: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 — 6:30 AM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for beachgoers/rip currents Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW Today is the final significant surf/high-tide overlap of this event. NWS forecasts Orange County surf of 3–6 ft with sets to 7 ft, a 5.7-ft Newport Beach high tide at 10:38 AM, HIGH rip-current risk and a Coastal Flood Advisory through 2 PM. Fresh nearshore measurements confirm substantial long-period energy. Capistrano Beach Nearshore measured 4.5 ft significant wave height (Hs), 18.2 sec, from 208° SSW shortly before 6 AM. Farther south, Point Loma South was about 5.3 ft/15.4 sec and Mission Bay West about 5.5 ft/18.2 sec earlier this morning. These are measured buoy heights, not breaking-surf heights. Local surf guidance shows strong amplification at exposed breaks: roughly 6–8 ft at Huntington State Beach, 8–10 ft at The Wedge, 5–7 ft at Strands and Salt Creek, 6–8 ft at Aliso Creek, while sheltered Doheny is around 3–4 ft+. This geographic spread remains consistent with the shoreline-exposure differences established during Sunday’s event. There is no major observation/forecast contradiction this morning: measured long-period energy supports locally powerful breaking surf, while the official 3–6 ft/sets-to-7 forecast reasonably represents the broader county rather than every focal break. Beachgoer/public-access risk is HIGH. Beach/erosion risk is MODERATE, locally HIGH at exposed or depleted beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk is MODERATE around the late-morning high tide, but current evidence does not support a September 7-type Strand impact event. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Tuesday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. 3–6 ft surf, sets to 7 ft; 5.7-ft high at 10:38 AM. Minor coastal flooding remains possible near high tide. Wednesday — MODERATE→LOW for coastal flooding; HIGH rip-current risk remains. NWS forecasts 3–5 ft surf, sets to 6 ft, with a lower 5.4-ft high at 11:05 AM. Thursday — LOW property/erosion risk expected. Offshore flow strengthens; Santa Ana winds develop. Friday — LOW wave/flood risk expected. Stronger Santa Ana winds become the dominant coastal weather issue; NWS says gusts could reach 45–55 mph in favored areas, extending near the San Diego County coast. Saturday — LOW coastal-flood risk expected. Offshore winds ease somewhat. No credible wave/tide hazard beyond day 5 currently exceeds today. TROPICAL STORMS Hurricane Simon remains near west-central Mexico, moving slowly northwest and weakening; NHC reported 90-mph sustained winds late Monday. Simon remains important to the regional swell field, but current Southern California coastal risk is determined from observed swell and shoreline response rather than storm category alone. KELVIN WAVE / BACKGROUND SEA LEVEL NOAA confirms a coastally trapped Kelvin wave is moving north along the West Coast, with additional Kelvin-wave energy behind it in the tropics. Such waves can temporarily raise sea level by roughly 6–12 inches, but timing and local magnitude remain uncertain; no assumed amount is added to predicted tides. SAND RECOVERY CONDITIONS Unfavorable today for natural sand recovery: long-period surf and elevated water can maintain erosion at exposed beaches. Conditions should become more favorable after today as surf and high-tide overlap diminish. Sources: NWS San Diego AFD, Surf Zone Forecast and coastal products; NHC; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; NOAA Kelvin-wave analysis; Surfline regional guidance; Strand Beach ground-truth calibration. Newport yesterday 👇 x.com/Surflick/statu…

Orange County California - Coastal Risk Analysis and Forecast Surf increased above this morning’s forecast at exposed North Orange County beaches; Tuesday risk is higher than previously expected. Forecast issued: Monday, October 12, 2026 — 3:30 PM PDT Current risk: MODERATE overall; HIGH for beachgoers at exposed beaches Scale: LOW → MODERATE → HIGH → SEVERE WHAT MATTERS NOW MATERIAL CHANGE: NWS San Diego raised its Orange County surf forecast from this morning’s 3–5 ft to 4–7 ft through Tuesday. This is a meaningful upward change, especially for Tuesday’s 5.7-ft late-morning high tide. Observed surf also confirms stronger conditions at exposed North Orange County beaches. Surfline’s Huntington Beach Pier Southside camera was observing 6–8 ft surf, while nearby observed locations ranged from 4–5 ft at Huntington State Beach to 5–7 ft at River Jetties and both sides of Huntington Pier. The Wedge was 6–8 ft. This continues the sharp geographic variability seen Sunday. Nearshore buoy observations remain lower than those breaking-surf heights, as expected. Capistrano Beach Nearshore measured 4.3 ft significant wave height (Hs), 15 sec, from 212° SSW at 12:26 PM; Santa Monica Bay measured about 4.3 ft, 15 sec, from 201° SSW around 1 PM. Long-period energy therefore remains established across the region. The important observation/forecast picture has changed since 6:30 AM: this morning’s 3–5 ft Orange County forecast understated surf now occurring at the most exposed North County beaches, and NWS has adjusted upward. Strand remains a valuable contrasting ground-truth site because South County exposure can produce much smaller shoreline impacts from the same regional swell field. Beachgoer/public-access risk remains HIGH due to surf and rip currents. Beach/erosion risk is MODERATE, locally HIGH at exposed or already depleted beaches. Immediately ocean-adjacent property risk is MODERATE overall and increases again around Tuesday’s late-morning high tide, but current evidence still does not support a September 7-type Strand impact event. 5-DAY COASTAL RISK FORECAST Monday (Today) — MODERATE overall; HIGH beachgoer risk. Exposed North County surf is larger than forecast this morning. Falling tide reduces property risk this afternoon. Tuesday — MODERATE, locally HIGH. NWS now forecasts 4–7 ft surf with a 5.7-ft Newport high at 10:38 AM. Coastal Flood Advisory continues through 2 PM. This is the next important compound surf/high-water window. Wednesday — LOW→MODERATE. Surf/high-water risk declines; residual erosion and rip currents remain. Thursday — LOW expected. Friday — LOW coastal-flood risk expected. Offshore/Santa Ana winds may become the more important coastal factor. Beyond day 5: no credible Southern California coastal hazard currently exceeds Monday–Tuesday. TROPICAL STORMS Hurricane Simon remains offshore of western Mexico and is weakening. NHC reported 110-mph sustained winds Monday morning. Dangerous swell is affecting western Mexico, but no material Simon-generated Southern California coastal-risk increase is established in current observations or official guidance. Sources: NWS San Diego Surf Zone Forecast/coastal products; NHC; CDIP/NDBC Southern California buoy network; Surfline regional observations; NOAA; Strand Beach ground truth. Malibu 👇 x.com/Promogirl07/st…