Out of Samples @OutofSamples

The bulletin's example uses an index and a 2x fund. The index loses 10 percent to $900, then gains 10 percent to $990. The 2x fund loses 20 percent to $800, then gains 20 percent to $960. Cumulative losses are 1 percent and 4 percent.

The Fed's 2027 inflation median stays at 2.3% from June to September, while its year-end policy-rate median rises from 3.6% to 4.1%. Each participant's projections reflect their own assessment of appropriate monetary policy.

@WOLF_Financial The advance estimate for August 2026 put U.S. retail and food services sales at 773.9 billion dollars, up 1.2 percent from July and 6.0 percent from August 2025.

August retail and food services sales rose 1.2 percent from July to $773.9 billion. The release says the figure is adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.

Today's New York factory survey pairs slower activity growth with stronger price pressure and longer delivery times. A softer headline does not automatically mean easing inflation pressure. This is regional evidence.

Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.

Oracle's operating cash flow already includes customer advances. For free cash flow, subtracting capex net of those same advances would count the money twice. The size of that line makes the distinction material.

A month ago the official forecast had oil averaging $85 this quarter and falling from there. Brent crossed $100 today. OPEC has been adding barrels the whole way. #oil #OPEC

@TheLongInvest Worth adding what the print itself is priced at. The options market has about 11 percent implied into Thursday, against a 16.12 percent average absolute move across the last four reactions. Smaller than recent history.

The options market prices a smaller move than the last four prints delivered. Oracle reports Thursday after the close. About 11 percent is priced; the last four reactions averaged 16.12 percent. The AI hardware trade now prices the backlog, not the quarter. #ORCL #AVGO

@MrStealth27 Broadcom's 34.8 billion dollar guidance sits about 0.6 percent below a 35 billion consensus. The after-hours fall was more than 6 percent, about ten times the shortfall.

Broadcom beat on revenue, profit and AI. The stock fell more than 6 percent because next quarter's revenue guidance was about half a percent light. Marvell beat and raised last week and fell 10.28 percent. #AVGO #MRVL

@investingLive_ A Japanese life insurer hedging currency risk pays roughly 3 to 4 percent a year, so a 10-year Treasury at 4.79 percent can still yield less than a 10-year Japanese government bond at 3 percent.

Broadcom earnings in the AM. Marvell just ran the experiment. Record revenue of $2.739 billion, up 37 percent. Data centre up 46 percent. Raised full-year guidance for the second straight quarter. Down 10.28 percent on the day. #AVGO #MRVL

Broadcom guides AI revenue to 16 billion dollars tonight, up over 200 percent. The same guidance puts gross margin at 74%. Marvell posted a record and a raise last week and closed down 10.28 percent. #AVGO #MRVL

On 19 August the US Treasury doubled its purchases of 30-year debt to push yields down. The 30-year now pays 5.27 percent and the decline is gone. Japan's 10-year just hit 3 percent, a first since 1996, so America's biggest foreign creditor now gets paid more at home. #JGB #FOMC

Brent fell more than 5 percent last week. The refining margin on diesel is near 93 dollars a barrel, more than a barrel of WTI crude costs. The shortage moved from the barrel to the refinery. #OilTrading

$TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging: "Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere... Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN) Just some bucket ideas: Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma (disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC) There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration. eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership" I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week). But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...

The Fed's own inflation gauge runs at 4.1 percent over six months and 3.7 percent over twelve. The recent pace is faster than the year behind it. That is why the better summer readings bought nothing. #Fed