PC Weather Boy @PC_WeatherBoy
Weather enthusiast and hobbyist who loves tracking and following the weather! Tropics, local and National weather. ambientweather.net/dashboard/2132… Plant City, FL Joined February 2013-
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No one probably cares anything about this but me LOL...there are currently 7 areas of tropical development being monitored across the globe currently.
Please exercise restraint and caution with ECMWF 12z for Hurricane Imelda at Days 10-13. It is plausible, but these extended range forecasts are beyond the skillful predictability horizon. We get 100s of ensemble solutions every day constantly updating. This will change, too!
🚨🚨We now have TS Humberto in the Central Atlantic. The first cone of these 2 dealing systems.
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Humberto, located over the central tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
18Z spaghetti is our on Invest 94. Not much of a change at all from the 12Z models that was out earlier this morning. Bahamas watching really close with this one...similar set up as Michael.
12Z runs of the EURO and EURO AI showing almost identical positions for Invest 94 by Wednesday of next week. EURO AI still tracking the developing system over the Bahamas and bringing it really close to the FL East coast before turning out into the Atlantic.
12Z model runs from the ICON/CMC/GFS this afternoon on Invest 94. ICON and the CMC develop 94 over the Bahamas and follow it behind Invest 93. The GFS...does nothing with the system and shows 94 absorbing into Invest 93. These run images are dated for Tuesday of next week. We…
12Z spaghetti models on invest 94 haven't budged from their last run. EURO ensembles are closer to the East Coast of the US. Will watching this one closely. Gut feeling is it curves and stays away from the US. But curves and timing of the approaching front can be tricky.
Latest EURO and GFS ensemble guidance on invest 94. Black line is the average of all the ensemble members of that model. EURO tugging closer to the East than the GFS.
Invest 94 early morning spaghetti models this morning. Showing still that curve away from the US. Some weather may bump on shore near the outer banks, but there is nothing of great worry that the US needs to be concerned about with either Invest 93 or 94. Bahamas watching really…
Overnight NHC map on Invest 93 and 94 with 93 staying at a 90% chance with 94 increasing to an 80% chance. Very likely, soon, we will have two named systems tracking very close to and competing with one another.
New spaghetti models are out for Invest 94. Starting to see more of a turn quicker than what some of the AI models are showing. East coast and the Bahamas watching closely.
Now we have 2 cherries!!! The battle of which system is going to get named first!
Eastern Hillsborough into Polk is getting a bit of action this evening. Anyone seeing any flooding yet?
Latest ensemble runs on Invest 93 and Invest 94 from the EURO and GFS. EURO liking the idea of Invest 94 getting close to the East Coast of the Carolinas while the GFS members keep both systems a good bit away from the US. Watching closely.
12z model runs below all imaged for Tuesday of next week, a week from today, from the EURO/EUROAI/GFS/CMC. All showing BOGO systems in the South West Atlantic with Invest 94 interacting more with the Bahamas through the next 7 days and coming close to the FL East Coast. A cold…
Latest spaghetti models are out on Invest 93 (top) and Invest 94 (bottom). It will be very interesting to watch how these 2 areas interfere with one another. 93 is likely not going to be one of concern for the US. 94 will bear watching as the models show an more Westerly initial…
Latest main deterministic model runs from both the EURO and GFS. 12Z runs will be out with in a few hours. EURO showing a weak Invest 94 moving into the Carolina's while the GFS showing Invest 94 being so weak that Invest 93 absorbs it. Will be watching to see what the 12z runs…
Latest ensemble runs from the EURO showing the development of Invest 93 and Invest 94 with the potential for Invest 94 bumping on shore along the Carolina coast. Once we get some spaghetti models out on Invest 94, we will have more to look at as to if this system tracks further…
As of 8am...the NHC has upped development chances for these 2 waves being watched in the Atlantic. Both are invest's now by the NHC. Watching for those spaghetti models to come out.
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