Weather Enthusiast | NOT a Meteorologist | Located in South-Central PA | Focus on Severe, Tropics, and Winter | On YouTube at "Weather Sphere"youtube.com/@WeatherSphere…Joined November 2024
18z GENC ensembles for #94L and #Humberto and... yeah. It's a mess. Many members plowing 94L into the Carolinas as a low-end hurricane. Some still pull it out to sea. Some creep into the Gulf... lots to watch.
When you watch this satellite loop, I want you to pay close attention to several things: First, notice how at the very beginning of the loop there are little bursts of convection all over the place, like little kernels of popcorn going off in a skillet. But then watch as the loop…
#94L still firing off a decent bit of convection south of Puerto Rico. Lots of shear fighting it though. We'll see if it can hold this convection till morning. If it can, we may have #Imelda sooner than later. Still has to get thru Hispaniola though.
The 18z Euro AI, **while incredibly unlikely**, would be a pretty devastating flooding scenario for the coastal portions of the Southeast.
Shows #Humberto slingshotting #94L (soon-to-be #Imelda) into the coast, off the coast, and then back into the coast. Yeesh.
Euro AI (18z) has future Imelda (invest #94L) faster and getting ahead of what would be Hurricane #Humberto. This would give future Imelda a solid shot at direct impacts to the US. You can see the influence of Humberto trying to pull Imelda back out to sea after first landfall.
This might be the goofiest Euro run I've ever seen.
>Both invests develop
>#94L rides the Florida coast, then slingshots eastward toward #93L
>It suddenly stops, turns around, and then rides up the ENTIRE EAST COAST?
What in the world??? And then a clipper comes in behind it 😂
12z Euro AI has #94L crawling up the Florida coast as a tropical storm, then it gets slingshot eastward as #93L strengthens as a major hurricane off the coast near Bermuda. Wild scenario.
18z Google AI ensembles for #93L and #94L. Whether or not 94L makes landfall will likely depend on speed. If it's faster and gets ahead of 93L, it can avoid Fujiwara and plow into the Southeast coast. If it's slower, it likely gets shoved along the coast and out to sea.
8p EDT Tues 9/23- We are monitoring 2 disturbances that are likely to become tropical depressions this week. The western one #AL94 could form near the Bahamas in a few days, with a heavy rain threat for the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic during the next…
All 12z ensemble guidance below. Black lines are #94L, red lines are #93L. Still tons of spread between model guidance. Anywhere from the eastern Gulf to the Southeast coast to Bermuda could see impacts.
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