Glen Peters @Peters_Glen
Energy, emissions, & climate @CICERO_klima Projects @V_ERIFY_H2020, @4C_H2020, @ParisReinforce, @CoCO2_project, @iam_compact, @climatediamond, @EuPathfinder cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/g… Oslo, Norway Joined October 2012-
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To stabalise temperature requires the same outcome: net zero CO2 emissions. The longer it takes to get to net zero CO2 emissions, the higher the temperature outcome. (Remaining Carbon Budgets from AR6 WGI, updated with emissions since 2020)
If all the distance that was driven in EVs in Norway had instead been driven by cars with internal combustion engines, Norway's emissions would have been 1.5 Mt higher. Now that the passenger car fleet is 25% full-electric, this is having a significant effect.
With data available so far, our preliminary estimate gives Norway's emissions dropping in 2023 by 2.2%. Industry is cyclical: drops in production because of high energy prices have led to drops in emissions, so likely to bounce back. 1/3
If all countries did as Norway, would there be less of a climate problem? Yes, say a third of Norwegians... (A third didn't know, a third said no)
Lots of confusion in debate on 1.5C with & without overshoot (OS) ➡️IPCC defines OS as exceeding and returning (to 1.5C) ➡️Almost all IPCC scenarios achieving 1.5C by 2100 show OS ➡️Achieving 1.5 without OS = net-zero C02 by 2030/2035 See also 🧵below politico.com/newsletters/po…
Which countries extract the most carbon from the ground (coal, oil, gas)? robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2023/extrac…
@MaxCRoser For those interested, I keep a bunch of charts and data about Norway's EV transition updated here: robbieandrew.github.io/EV/
Zeke Hausfather @hausfath
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833 Followers 836 Following Scientia Lecturer at UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response. I study severe weather in a changing climate. These views are my own.@Peters_Glen @AndreasenJack I really had no idea it would be a contentious collective descriptor of who I was seeing share this. For me the point was to say our community needs to do better with information integrity, especially those of us who teach - that’s why i wrote “us” at the end of the thread.
Impossible? You're not considering the alternative: a planet that continues to heat up and make extreme weather events worse. Easy? You're not considering what's needed: unprecedented pace of changes that will be needed technologically and socially. Right frame: Doable but HARD
To stabalise temperature requires the same outcome: net zero CO2 emissions. The longer it takes to get to net zero CO2 emissions, the higher the temperature outcome. (Remaining Carbon Budgets from AR6 WGI, updated with emissions since 2020)
@Peters_Glen @HMcJeon @NB_pik @rishpardikar @HarrisBerton Agreed. I think appropriate use also means much more work on energy demand so we are not stuck with just adjusting stuff on the supply side. It always surprises me that the 2018 Grubler paper didn't kick more work off on this - although EDITS are doing some great work here.
@HMcJeon @rishpardikar @HarrisBerton @Peters_Glen @NB_pik This paper by Grant et al. highlights overestimation of removals and the need for circumspection in assumed potential. cell.com/joule/pdf/S254…. After 20 years of discussion, limited progress to date on CCS/ CDR should also be a strong cause for concern.
@Peters_Glen @HarrisBerton @rishpardikar @NB_pik @djvdven Fun fact; Korean tradition is that the last author is the PI and ultimately responsible for all the errors. First author takes all the glory.
@Peters_Glen @HMcJeon @NB_pik @HarrisBerton Exactly. Doubt anyone has a problem with optimisation. It's the out-of-touch-with-reality that's an issue
@HMcJeon @Peters_Glen @rishpardikar @HarrisBerton Here's a modified fig. Physics-based models have stationarity and are valid for distant past and long-term future. Economic models are empirical and useful in for the near future (next quarter/year). IAM-based projections mix timescales of socioeconomic models with physics models
🌳 Original Forests v.s. Current Forests
Good rant from Glen. Maybe we should, like, reduce emissions? Meanwhile, as we all continue our high emissions lifestyles it's ok as long as you say the right thing on social media. Sigh.
To keep below 1.5°C, with a 50-50 chance, would require global CO2 emissions to be zero in ~2038 (orange line). The other scenarios (blue) overshoot to ~1.6°C before going back <1.5°C in 2100 (& they start with a global carbon price in 2020). 1/
@Peters_Glen (Crap! I just submitted my magnum opus on implications of overshoot… let me just go change that title and resubmit…)
A “digital twin” is just a pretentious name for a model.
@HarrisBerton This is just not correct. The importance of demand-side solutions is well-documented, such as in the latest IPCC WG3 report. ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3… While CDR is useful for hard-to-abate sectors, it can never substitute reducing emissions (see e.g., @Peters_Glen's work).
“Sooner or later, policymakers will have to embrace the ‘overshoot story’ if they want to stick to 1.5C,” @Oliver_Geden eenews.net/articles/un-ho…
@Peters_Glen And there are basic thermodynamic reasons why this is true. CCS is wishful thinking (or maybe just PR?) on behalf of fossil fuel interests that flies in the face of physics and chemistry.
China is selling more EVs than the rest of the world combined
@Peters_Glen Double- trouble! You are really unlucky with a laggard (AUS) and a complacent ( Norway) combination , aren’t you?
@Peters_Glen The current global *capture* capacity – of CO2 from combustion flue gasses – is barely distinguishable from zero. There is extensive *separation* of CO2 from natural gas (to make LNG), a small fraction of which is reinjected. The rest is vented to the atmosphere.
@Peters_Glen Hah, as soon as I saw the first graph I was about to jump in and say, "Hey, I know another country like this." ... :(
Norway has so little thermal power generation (currently <2% of the mix) that changes at individual power plants are highly visible in the national generation data. Some of the squiggles on this graph are nevertheless connected to seismic politics in the country.