Predxy US (Community) @PredxyHQ

@CookPolitical Prediction markets price it about the same way: Democrats at 92% to win the House across venues.

@unusual_whales It covers one city for now. A full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 31 is still 13% on Polymarket. Live odds on predxy.com

@DeItaone Oct 27 per Moscow, Oct 29 per the White House. A Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting by Oct 31 is 97% on Polymarket, up 41, mostly overnight.

@PopBase one city at a time. polymarket has a full russia-ukraine ceasefire agreement by oct 31 at 3%

@FoxNews Talks are already the base case. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by Nov 30 are 83% on Polymarket, up 19 points in a day. predxy.com

@billwritescopy @PpollingNumbers fair question. a poll shows where voters are today. the odds are people with money on how it ends. both are worth a look.

@DecisionDeskHQ On Kalshi, Don Davis is at 81% to hold NC-1, a little firmer than Lean D.

@lxeagle17 Markets aren't calling it a toss-up yet. Wagner is at about 65% to hold MO-02 on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

@kkondik Markets lean further than a toss-up. Garcia (D) is at 69% on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket.

The midterms, 11 days out: House: Democrats about 9 in 10 Senate: Democrats 68%, Republicans 31% Odds on every race at predxy.com

Prediction markets, in one place. The same question matched across 15 venues, including Polymarket and Kalshi. One volume-weighted probability. Every venue's price side by side. What the money thinks is coming, without checking 15 sites. predxy.com

@spectatorindex Staying there is the harder part. Kalshi has WTI settling at $100 or above on Election Day at about 43%.

@DecisionDeskHQ Even higher in the markets. Across venues, Democrats are at about 93% to take the House.

@sentdefender Oil on Election Day is roughly a coin flip at $100. Kalshi has WTI settling there or higher on Nov 3 at about 47%.

@ForecasterEnten Markets see it as less close than that. Polymarket US has Paxton at about 1 in 3.

@KobeissiLetter The ceasefire market moved too. Polymarket has US-Iran holding through October at about 74% and through November at just 39%, both down 8 in a day.

@Polymarket Eighteen rallies in 13 days. Across venues, Republicans are at about 8% to keep the House.

@Polymarket El-Sayed heads into the last two weeks at around 69% to win on Polymarket US and 68% on Kalshi.

@DeItaone The ceasefire market barely blinked. Polymarket has a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year end at 12%, and about 1 in 3 by the end of March.