RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting
RFI enhances RAND's ability to understand complex global challenges through advanced forecasting capabilities. randforecastinginitiative.org Online Joined March 2020-
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Forecast with us on governance & stability in #Africa and African diaspora countries to inform RAND analysts and U.S. policymakers. Learn more and contribute to this research by forecasting on our latest questions >> randforecastinginitiative.org/feature/rfi-af… #AfricanSecurity #RANDForecasting
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Could Russia's rising #inflation rates (as reported @Reuters) impact Putin's leadership? INFER is forecasting whether #Putin will cease to be the President of #Russia by July 2025. Tell us what you think >> infer-pub.com/questions/1413…
Could Russia's rising #inflation rates (as reported @Reuters) impact Putin's leadership? INFER is forecasting whether #Putin will cease to be the President of #Russia by July 2025. Tell us what you think >> infer-pub.com/questions/1413…
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
@INFERpub will challenge your brain, teach you about the world, and connect you with other curious people! This was my favorite question of this month: On 31 May 2025, will NVIDIA be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? infer-pub.com/questions/1414…
📱From smartphones to military systems, #semiconductors power our digital world. We're asking: What % of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas in 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1415
Pro forecaster @dippyskippy, works in high-value philanthropy investing in London, and shares why participating on INFER is important to him. See forecasting lessons from him and other top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…
📊 NEW snapshot reports on #Iran's agenda for #nuclear weapons and #proxies are now available for download. By 31 May, several crowd forecast signals pointed to Iran's regional influence remaining at status quo or slightly deescalating. See more >> infer-pub.com/archive
Amid #election legitimacy concerns and alleged human rights violations in #Venezuela, we are seeking forecasts on this critical question >> infer-pub.com/questions/1399…
Notable update from our mid-month forecast snapshot report: The INFER crowd is currently forecasting a 53% chance (+23% in just the last 3 weeks) that #Russia will attack #Kharkiv, #Ukraine before Jan 2025. Read more from our latest snapshot report >> infer-pub.com/archive
We just launched a new strategic topic to understand the future of Open Radio Access Network. An #OpenRAN ecosystem would allow companies like Verizon and AT&T to use vendor-neutral hardware and software, avoiding reliance on one provider. Read more >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/future…
We asked INFER Pro Forecaster and geopolitical consultant ScottEastman: What have you learned from working with top level forecasters both in your field and in the INFER Pro program? Hear from several top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson… #crowdforecasting
Our newly released #Russia-#Ukraine report spotlighted a notable forecast shift – our crowd now says there's a 21% chance that #Russia will invade #Moldova before April 2027. Read more from our forecasters on this issue and others >> infer-pub.com/archive
📊NEW snapshot reports on the #RussiaUkraineWar and #Iran's #nuclear and regional agenda are now available for download. These include a spotlight on the signal with a notable forecast shift over the past month. See our latest forecast reports >> infer-pub.com/archive
📈 In the past two weeks, INFER's forecast for #Israel declaring war on #Hezbollah in the next year has jumped to a 24% chance. What do you think? >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378
📈 In the past two weeks, INFER's forecast for #Israel declaring war on #Hezbollah in the next year has jumped to a 24% chance. What do you think? >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378
Critical #UkraineRussiaWar forecast questions just launched. Here's one: Will the U.S. #Congress pass a military aid package supporting #Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1391
Our March snapshot reports highlight crowd forecast trends related to #Iran's #nuclear progress and influence on proxies in the region. Read our latest release >> infer-pub.com/archive
Nathan 🔎 @NathanpmYoung
24K Followers 4K Following Geopolitics, prediction markets. If you think I'm wrong, community note me. Capital case tweets are literal, others less. I like most people when I meet them.
Jordan Schneider @jordanschnyc
52K Followers 4K Following Newsletter: https://t.co/j23uuLxE59 join 50k readers Podcast: https://t.co/4sx8iev5Az Fellow: @cnasdc
CSET @CSETGeorgetown
12K Followers 453 Following The Center for Security and Emerging Technology within Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service. Visit https://t.co/0HMynaF0ZI to sign up for updates.
Haydn Belfield @HaydnBelfield
5K Followers 2K Following Research Scientist (Frontier Planning) at @GoogleDeepMind. Research Affiliate @Cambridge_Uni @CSERCambridge & @LeverhulmeCFI. All views my own.
Ryan Fedasiuk @RyanFedasiuk
15K Followers 8K Following Fellow @AEI. Adjunct Prof @GeorgetownCSS. Fmr @StateDept China House & @CSETGeorgetown. Views my own. 费瑞安.
David Krueger @DavidSKrueger
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Michael Story ⚓ @MWStory
10K Followers 3K Following Making Forecasting Useful at @swift_centre. I like big dogs, fast boats, and old stones 🇬🇧🇺🇲🇰🇪🇧🇪🇺🇲🇫🇷🇬🇧🇷🇺🇬🇧🇹🇼🇬🇧
Emerging Technology O... @emergingtechobs
678 Followers 148 Following Creating high-quality data resources to inform critical decisions on emerging technology issues. A project of @CSETGeorgetown
Karson Elmgren @kelmgren
1K Followers 3K Following 徐森凱 | now AI policy research @RANDCorporation prev @CSETGeorgetown @OpenAI &c | 🗣 中文 русский … | 横眉冷对千夫点赞
Lennart Heim @ohlennart
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davidad 🎇 @davidad
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Cristian Celsi @CelsiCris26725
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j h @hallj15
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Carlos Estrada 🇲�... @charlyaztec
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30 Followers 558 Following Most people are other people. Their thoughts are someone else's opinions, their lives a mimicry, their passions a quotation 🤔
🇨🇦halogen @halogen1048576
4K Followers 7K Following there'll be trouble in the Taiwan Straits in the spring
Emanuele Bianchi @memebi
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Pauliina @enialaniiluap
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Joseph Green Jr. @MsAnderson29473
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spencer @spencerpogo
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X @follwtheldr
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GODL @GODLToken
269 Followers 45 Following GODL Gold: Simplicity meets wealth. The GODL Token is digital self-appreciating gold governed by its community. #GOLD #DeFi
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AquaLith Environmenta... @Mitch1742182
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Laughing Jackal Analy... @TrashPandaIntel
7 Followers 327 Following Scavenging the World's Carcasses Geopolitics / Political Economy / Philosophy Views/opinions/predictions are my own and are possibly absolute trash
Christian Chung @cachung
444 Followers 5K Following Emerging Tech x NatSec | TASP Fellow @RANDCorporation, Reserve Officer @USNavy, PhD candidate @PrincetonSPIA, Alum @GeorgetownSFS
The Super Model @TheSuper_Model
710 Followers 202 Following Polls stink. Forecasters stink. Markets are decent. This might be slightly better.
Sammy Fries 🔸🌱 @SammyFries
355 Followers 496 Following Learning how I might be able to effectively help other animals - sharing along the way. Thoughts my own and not personal financial advice
Lars Bennoehr @Lima___Bravo
17 Followers 377 Following
Sam Bowman @sleepinyourhat
50K Followers 3K Following AI alignment + LLMs at Anthropic. On leave from NYU. Views not employers'. No relation to @s8mb. I think you should join @givingwhatwecan.
Deger Turan @degerturann
588 Followers 139 Following working on scalable cooperation, AI, and forecasting - @metaculus CEO + @AIObjectives President
Henri Thunberg 🔸 @HenriThunberg
563 Followers 786 Following Raising funds for impactful causes, e.g. as chairman of @geeffektivt. A- calibration, D- takes. Proud 🔸10% Pledge #5185 with @GivingWhatWeCan
Brian Helip @BrianHelip64
29 Followers 75 Following
Sam Klein @SHORTshmu
15 Followers 347 Following
Elias Malisi @Elias_Malisi
21 Followers 161 Following I upskill in AI safety research @ML4GoodOrg and share my lessons at https://t.co/kcrs608XbG Effective Altruist | Alumn @learnnontrivial, @tksworldhq
Sammy @samuelpberman
36 Followers 191 Following
Berker Elyay @b_elyay
31 Followers 635 Following
Aldo Macedo @aldomachf
339 Followers 5K Following El librepensamiento crea sociedades más abiertas e inquietas.| Académico | Editor Rev ACS: https://t.co/PDbommSCfq | Corrector: https://t.co/tlTH43acAF
tachypsyche @tachypsyche
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Scott Ryan @ScottRy34623455
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bayesian goldfish @gldfishmindset
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Mikak @Mikak78
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Mike Bechtel @mikebechtel
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Jordan Schneider @jordanschnyc
52K Followers 4K Following Newsletter: https://t.co/j23uuLxE59 join 50k readers Podcast: https://t.co/4sx8iev5Az Fellow: @cnasdc
Robin Hanson @robinhanson
112K Followers 723 Following Let’s skip witty banter & talk deep Qs. Books: https://t.co/hpZgEm55Ma https://t.co/iFs9C3IuOM Chief Scientist @_futarchy Advisor @MetaDAOProject @butterygg
Jack Clark @jackclarkSF
88K Followers 5K Following @AnthropicAI, ONEAI OECD, co-chair @indexingai, writer @ https://t.co/3vmtHYkIJ2 Past: @openai, @business @theregister. Neural nets, distributed systems, weird futures
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov
72K Followers 499 Following
CSET @CSETGeorgetown
12K Followers 453 Following The Center for Security and Emerging Technology within Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service. Visit https://t.co/0HMynaF0ZI to sign up for updates.
Haydn Belfield @HaydnBelfield
5K Followers 2K Following Research Scientist (Frontier Planning) at @GoogleDeepMind. Research Affiliate @Cambridge_Uni @CSERCambridge & @LeverhulmeCFI. All views my own.
Ryan Fedasiuk @RyanFedasiuk
15K Followers 8K Following Fellow @AEI. Adjunct Prof @GeorgetownCSS. Fmr @StateDept China House & @CSETGeorgetown. Views my own. 费瑞安.
Michael Story ⚓ @MWStory
10K Followers 3K Following Making Forecasting Useful at @swift_centre. I like big dogs, fast boats, and old stones 🇬🇧🇺🇲🇰🇪🇧🇪🇺🇲🇫🇷🇬🇧🇷🇺🇬🇧🇹🇼🇬🇧
Seán Ó hÉigeartaig... @S_OhEigeartaigh
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Lennart Heim @ohlennart
7K Followers 727 Following managing the flop @RANDcorporation | Also @GovAI_ & @EpochAIResearch
JM Aguilar-Antonio @travelerjm
1K Followers 364 Following Beca Fulbright-García Robles @Comexus (25-26) | Posdoc @cisanunam (23-25) | SNI-C @Secihti | Dr. RRII @UNAM_FCPyS | Ciberseguridad e IA. My Own Opinion.
Mau_Bastien @Mau_Bastien
3K Followers 5K Following Trabajo en temas de seguridad, justicia y tecnología 🇲🇽 👉🌎
Council on Foreign Re... @CFR_org
557K Followers 163 Following Foreign policy news and analysis. CFR takes no institutional positions on policy. Follows, RT ≠ endorsements. ✉️ Subscribe for more: https://t.co/ehd5lKYrLs
Heramb @Heramb1618
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Scott Alexander @slatestarcodex
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Ajeya Cotra @ajeya_cotra
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Planned Obsolescence @plannedobs
459 Followers 7 Following Thinking ahead to a future where AI decides everything
Guillermo Mendoza @gmendozabazan
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Henry Tolchard @henry_tolchard
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Adam Alonzi @Adam_Alonzi
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American Civics Excha... @amcivtwit
615 Followers 644 Following Now serving up OTC political swaps with no trading fees & no preset position limits to US-based Eligible Contract Participants.
Trends in Biotechnolo... @TrendsinBiotech
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RAND @RANDCorporation
253K Followers 736 Following We arm leaders with the information they need to tackle the toughest policy problems. Nonprofit, nonpartisan. Core values = quality & objectivity.
Brian T. Edwards @LiquidData
1K Followers 5K Following Senior Product Manager, Clinical AI @IMOHealth #Algorithmovigilance 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼🇵🇸🍉
Superforecastr @Superforecastr
2K Followers 3K Following Superforecaster. Co-PI. Creator of Blender. Patent-holder. Sibylink & https://t.co/pqB9jDmXKD. Strategic foresight & decision science R&D. Human-machine innovation. RT=0
P Alex D @alexdemarsh
132 Followers 528 Following
William MacAskill @willmacaskill
63K Followers 1K Following Consider donating 10% to effective charities: https://t.co/VMXkr4hnd7 Or a career for impact: https://t.co/AUIhrElLkr My research: https://t.co/dEcMWUnNHU
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251 Followers 78 Following Supporting young bioscientists in keeping their work safe and secure via our FutureLearn MOOC "Biosecurity for the Next Generation" #NextGenBiosecurity
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251 Followers 137 Following Program Manager @ARPA_H. Coronavirologist, Public Health, and Health Futures Scientist. Prior @IAVI, @DoD, @NASEM_NRC_RAP, and #ELBI. views=mine alone.
Ars Technica @arstechnica
1.2M Followers 1K Following Original news, reviews, analysis of tech trends, and expert advice on the most fundamental aspects of tech.
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Gustavo Lacerda, surf... @gusl
902 Followers 2K Following Sense-maker. Formerly @metaculus, @Google, @Columbia Stats. Social Epistemology, Judgmental Forecasting, Interpretability, Computational Cogsci, Causality.
Matthew Hallex @mhallex
425 Followers 2K Following DC-based defense researcher. Work includes space, nukes, strategy & Asia Views are my own & other standard disclaimers.
Owen J. Daniels @OJDaniels
808 Followers 989 Following Writing on AI, security, & democracy. Associate Director of Analysis & Andrew W. Marshall Fellow, @CSETGeorgetown & @AWMFoundtn. Probably behind deadline.
The Andrew W. Marshal... @AWMFoundtn
591 Followers 604 Following We support relentlessly curious people and projects that explore strategic questions facing the United States.
Tom Nunlist @freefader
2K Followers 899 Following China Cyber & Data Policy Analyst Associate Director @triviumchina https://t.co/42b0JdvBXE Trying to be less wrong...
Jess Riedel @Jess_Riedel
3K Followers 1K Following Quantum info & foundations @NTTResearch. Fueled by loathing of bad explanations. Seeking a rigorous definition of classical branches in many-body wavefunctions.
Elaine Rich @Allmyalibis
885 Followers 4K Following Good Judgment alum (superforecaster for @superforecaster) - https://t.co/WoleUxjxVM -- NonProphets guest https://t.co/ZeU4godCHw - 🇺🇸 #UHSP Pharmacy- allmyalibis.🦋
David Glidden @dglid
685 Followers 1K Following In the District of Columbia. Product management. Fantasy football stuff at @fantasyforecstr. Read https://t.co/BydTeYfZmj.
PyScale @PyScaleLLC
3K Followers 180 Following Polyglot technologist. PyScale focuses on developing scalable, solutions in the cloud. Retweets do not represent my views.
Micah Musser @mrmusser
292 Followers 284 Following Law student at @nyulaw || formerly Research Analyst at @CSETGeorgetown || AI, computers, ethics, law
Ryan Beck @ryanbeck111
502 Followers 1K Following Forecasting enthusiast and serial hobbyist. Forecasting Program Coordinator at @Metaculus. Author of SEER. Formerly a bridge engineer.
Dawna Coutant @dkcoutant
341 Followers 522 Following @dkcoutant.bsky.social on Bluesky I am a geopolitical forecaster and write mysteries. Evil Alice and the Borzoi https://t.co/Qwo4uvQmIB
Carolyn Meinel is at ... @cmeinel
553 Followers 1K Following President, BestWorld https://t.co/oJRPqP9XVt; Pro Forecaster at INFER, https://t.co/l9cxt8xTpO Personal website https://t.co/ZoyKhFINz3
MIT CSAIL @MIT_CSAIL
326K Followers 21K Following MIT's Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL). Media Inquiries: [email protected] Check out the latest CSAIL content ⬇️
Bertelsmann Foundatio... @BertelsmannFdn
6K Followers 2K Following Transatlantic perspectives on global challenges
Bertelsmann Stiftung @BertelsmannSt
20K Followers 342 Following Wir wollen Menschen bewegen, Zukunft gestalten. Wer wir sind: https://t.co/mXf7XoAvcC
EngBio IRC @EngBioIRC
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UF Synthetic Biology ... @uf_group
255 Followers 79 Following University of Florida SynBio Working group. Practicing & promoting microbial & plant #SynBio & metabolic engineering. 'Build-to-use' & 'Build-to-understand'
Centre for Synthetic ... @CSB_UGent
1K Followers 319 Following Three research groups of @UGent. #EnzymeEngineering #MetabolicEngineering #MembraneTransportEngineering Interests: Carbohydrates, Flavonoids, Glycolipids
Synthetic Biology @Syn_Biology
7K Followers 4K Following Providing up to date news, answering questions and gathering opinions about Synthetic Biology.
Keller Scholl 🔸 @KellerScholl
1K Followers 407 Following Ph.D. student. I have tried to help you, inform you, and entertain you. He/Him. Married @firinnish
Lucas Pinheiro @lppinheiros
2K Followers 3K Following PhD candidate @Oficial_IRI_USP and @KingsCollegeLon Strategic Studies, MSc. Student at @EconomiaUsp. China-LATAM Relations, International Political Economy.
Joe Carlsmith @jkcarlsmith
7K Followers 648 Following Philosophy, futurism, AI. Senior advisor @open_phil. Opinions my own.
Owain Evans @OwainEvans_UK
16K Followers 357 Following Runs an AI Safety research group in Berkeley (Truthful AI) + Affiliate at UC Berkeley. Past: Oxford Uni, TruthfulQA, Reversal Curse. Prefer email to DM.
Fortnightly Forecasts @FForecasts
180 Followers 457 Following Read what the future could look like, from a team of GJP superforecasters and well-calibrated colleagues: https://t.co/DizAl7s1RS
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