Eric Pfeiffer @RedpineEric
Econ major long time ago with 6 months Fed theory. Am retired (you never really retire, just change careers). Joined January 2014-
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@VladTheInflator 2024 UN data verifies this and shows most of the world seeing this trend with China, Japan, and S Korea far lower and way below replacement. 2.1 is defined as replacement rate. US is 1.6.
@StealthQE4 No surprise in this. Expect Indexes to respond accordingly. Moody's is definitely behind the curve on this decision.
@OMGno2trump Inflation has always been with us and is encouraged by the Fed and US government. It is effectively permanent.
@gtconway3d Seen her pictures. She is not "hot" but "plain Jane" in reality.
@SenSanders Bernie, interest on debt will increase by 400B or more over the next two years as debt rolls over before any increase in new debt. You are silent about the biggest increasing cost to govt. Absolute silence.
@Brendan_Duke @aduehren As nobody likes the bill, it passes the conventional definition of a bill that may pass. After compromise with the Senate and further hand wringing over this, something will get signed...as always. Interest on debt will be the big winner which no one wants to talk about.
@VladTheInflator Mostly consumer retail stuff I see. He certainly lives in the world of ultra high risk. Guess he has to leave some wild risk on the table to avoid the boredom of solid returns on portfolio over time.
@TheFungi669 No. Bush 2 tops the list by far. LBJ is right up there.
@MarcGoldwein Of course, those offsets are rarely realized. I ran a quick calculation on interest increases on debt as debt rolls over to new higher interest rates. By 2027 interest rises by 450B very roughly to about 1.5T annually if no new debt is added. Congress is a joke.
@MacroEdgeRes It should be, not because of tariffs but because of rising deficit spending by the US govt, and other countries. Next year look for rising demands for wage increases to boot.
@StealthQE4 Costs always get passed on. Don't look for many abrupt increases, look for small relentless increases over a few years as well as product quality declines, reduced employment, and smaller sized goods with price increases. You have seen it all before.
@SBWorkersUnited Start up a coffee shop chain and institute all of your demands as a business model. Execute on your beliefs.
@StealthQE4 Does that include insurances, taxes, HOA's and whatever other fees are dumped into the payments?
@VladTheInflator Pay cash and hand them a 5 dollar bill for a tip. No problem
@StealthQE4 That's good for 2 years most likely, then back for another boost. Interest payments on debt will eat up about 25% of that boost. We borrow money to make payments on debt...chew over that reality.
@StealthQE4 Yes. Just like Trump's first term. You will find great stability in the latter to boot and yes, prices will rise on everything as they have for years hopefully at a much slower pace now.
@EricBoehm87 Eliminate income tax and stock indexes will balloon higher. Oh, this is a top 10% story as they own virtually all of the stocks. Stocks go up, wealth get wealthier.
@DarrigoMelanie That was the same increase that Trump pushed through in his first term. Economy did just fine then.
@SullyCNBC @nypost Sharply lower and falling birth rates are starting to become a real life problem for the older people that decided not to have children. Tech has not come to the rescue yet as many thought it would.
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