Jason Rotenberg @RotenbergJason

Ex Co-Head of Macro at Bridgewater (joined in 1998, left 2023) Cyclical macro. Very interested in random micro. Investor. Brazilian-ish. Introvert/lurker. jasonrotenberg.substack.com Ridgefield, CT Joined November 2014

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Jason Rotenberg @RotenbergJason

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/1951…

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Jason Rotenberg @RotenbergJason

2 months ago

There are SO many smaller cap gold miners that through skill or luck will soon print money due to owning what traditional mining investors would consider shitty mines. These are some combination of small, high cost, low grade, low proven reserves, or in a riskier jurisdictions.…

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Passed Pawn @passedpawn

3 months ago

Passed Pawn's Perspective 1. Probably the craziest thing I missed while I was away was the president suggesting we mainly fund with T-Bills until rates come down. Bessent then avoided contradicting his boss, but in the end, the auction sizes remained the same. 2. Nothing to see…

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Jason Rotenberg @RotenbergJason

3 months ago

US Monetary Policy: Betting on Normal; Worried/Hedging against Rogue. The discounting today is more interesting than the macro. The rebound in equities means that recent softness will reverse. Inflation outside of tariffs may normalize as labor markets stay easy. See bio.

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Jason Rotenberg @RotenbergJason

3 months ago

US macro... a bit slower growth than ideal, and a bit higher inflation than ideal... a lot less damage from this administration's actions than I would have thought two months ago. Macro bets don't seem that obvious to me here. Equities are discounting a lot more optimism than…

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Peter Harrell @petereharrell

4 months ago

Analysis of yesterday's Court of International Trade (CIT) decision enjoining Trump's IEEPA tariffs, and thoughts about what might come next: 1. The CIT found that all of Trump's IEEPA tariffs--the Canada, Mexico, and China tariffs, and the "Liberation Day" tariffs--are…

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Jason Rotenberg @RotenbergJason

5 months ago

Just pushed through a mostly macro chart deck with comments. See bio and follow where it takes you.

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Jason Rotenberg @RotenbergJason

5 months ago

Recessions aren't about an arbitrary 0% growth line. Like expansions in reverse, they are a self-reinforcing. Falling spending leads to lower revenues/profits/stock prices/wealth leading to further cuts in spending. Big easings are needed to reverse them. See bio for article.