Sam Finn @SamFinnReports

Here is the link to download the report: samfinnreports.gumroad.com/l/IVP_Valuation

📉 NASDAQ: MSFT – The Mechanics of Multiple Compression When a stock price experiences heavy volatility throughout the year but ends up right back where it started, it creates a powerful illusion. People assume nothing has changed. But beneath the surface, a massive fundamental shift can redraw the entire valuation map. Microsoft's recent cycle provides a perfect masterclass in this exact phenomenon. 1️⃣ The Volatility Illusion Over the past 12 months, Microsoft's stock price has fluctuated heavily, whipping up and down. Yet, following the latest Q4/2026 earnings release, the price sits at $498.00 - down just a few percent compared to its year-ago level of $513.24. While the price net-moved sideways, the underlying financial engine was moving at lightspeed. 2️⃣ The July 2025 Peak (See Image Below) One year ago, my model issued a major warning. As you can see in the Q4/2025 report below, Microsoft was trading under extreme multiple expansion where the price had completely detached from reality: Estimated Intrinsic Value (IVP): Only $262.03 Valuation Multiple: A staggering 196% (A punishing -48.9% negative premium) The Risk: Buying at nearly double the intrinsic anchor meant that even world-class performance left a razor-thin margin for error, compressing the expected return (CAGR) down to 14.2%. 3️⃣ The Q4/2026 Shift: Has the Fundamental Engine Saved the Stock? Fast forward to today. The price flatlined over the year, but Microsoft delivered a monster fundamental performance: Revenue climbed +18% ($331,839M) and Net Income surged an incredible +31% ($133,749M), driving EPS up to $17.94. When earnings explode by 31% while the stock price stands still, the extreme 196% valuation multiple undergoes aggressive compression. The math has completely changed. But the critical questions every investor needs answered right now are: * What is the new Estimated Intrinsic Value (IVP) after this massive +31% earnings jump? * Has this growth successfully deflated the dangerous premium down to a safe entry zone, or is the margin for error still razor-thin? * What is the new Valuation-Adjusted CAGR right now? 🎯 Get the Exact Math The hardest part of investing is identifying the precise moment when strong earnings growth finally justifies a premium price. This model strips away the market noise and provides a cold, mathematical baseline so you don't have to buy based on pure gut feeling. 👇 The brand new Microsoft Q4/2026 Valuation Report is now officially LIVE. Check the comment section below for the direct Gumroad link to see the full updated charts and exact metrics! #FinTwit #ValueInvesting #MSFT

Here is the link to download both full reports for free: samfinnreports.gumroad.com/l/IVP_Valuation

📉 NIKE (NKE): The Anatomy of a Market Bubble Forming, Bursting, and Deflating (And why I am giving away two full reports for FREE) In the investing world, people talk a lot about bubbles, but very few have the actual tools to measure them in real-time. Nike is a textbook example of this phenomenon. With Nike’s highly anticipated Q1/2027 earnings release just around the corner on October 1st, I decided to do something exceptional: I am publishing both the Q4/2025 and Q4/2026 Valuation Reports completely for free on Gumroad. Why? Because the upcoming Q1 results will shift the numbers in just over a week anyway, so it’s only fair. But more importantly: Nike's case study is incredibly educational in the light of financial history. 1️⃣ Bubbles take years to form – and just as long to deflate Market history has proven that bubbles don’t appear or pop overnight. In December 2020, Nike reached the peak of its market euphoria, where the stock price completely decoupled from its underlying value – my model flagged a staggering 492% overvaluation at the time. When a bubble starts to deflate, investors easily step into the "value trap." They see a -30% crash and assume the bottom is in. But when too much hot air has been pumped into the price, the bleed can drag on for years. Remember the dot-com bubble? It took over two years from the index peak before the actual bottom was found and prices started to recover. 2️⃣ What happened in July 2025? (See Image 1) Even in July 2025 – after a long and painful decline – Nike's stock price sat at $72.98. To many, it already looked "cheap." However, my valuation model issued a clear warning: *Calculated Intrinsic Value (IVP): $37.00 *Valuation Multiple: 197% (Representing a punishing ~50% negative premium for buyers). *Fundamentals: Core business metrics like revenue and net income were simultaneously in a sharp decline. The price had fallen from its all-time highs, but it was still heavily inflated. 3️⃣ The Situation Right Now: September 2026 (See Image 2) Now, one year later, the bubble has aggressively deflated. The market price has plummeted 51% from its Q2/2025 levels and currently stands around $36.10. The model is now highlighting something we haven't seen in years: The market price has finally dropped below the calculated Intrinsic Value ($41.82). The valuation multiple sits at 86%, and for the first time in this cycle, the model tracks a 15.8% Margin of Safety for buyers, while the company's core key ratios have actively started to improve. 🎯 The Eternal Investor Dilemma Solved: Where is the Anchor? The biggest problem for investors during a market crash has always been the lack of a reliable metric or tool to show what a truly "low price" is, or where the fundamental anchor resides. People buy based on pure gut feeling simply because a stock has fallen far from the top. This valuation model was engineered to solve that exact problem. It does not provide direct buy or sell recommendations – the final conclusion is always left to the reader – but it gives the investor a mathematical direction and a solid anchor amidst market madness. It maps out precisely when the price detaches from reality and when it finally returns to earth. 👇 Check the comment section below for the direct Gumroad link! What are your thoughts on Nike's current state? Has the bubble officially deflated, or will the October 1st Q1 earnings release redraw the map once again? #FinTwit #ValueInvesting

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Full Amazon Q2/2026 Valuation Report:🔗 samfinnreports.gumroad.com/l/IVP_Valuation

Amazon Q2/2025 valuation (2 Aug 2025):At $214.75 it traded at 104% of Intrinsic Value, expected return 15.7%.Stock up ~17% since. Want the current Q2/2026 numbers on $AMZN?Full report just out 👇#Fintwit #ValueInvesting #AMZN

Full Berkshire Hathaway valuation report (the one used in this backtest) is free here:🔗 samfinnreports.gumroad.com/l/IVP_Valuation

Valuation model backtested on $BRK.B using decades of data. Over the long run, price closely follows Est. Intrinsic Value -as you’d expect from a company that practices rigorous value investing. Value investing math still works. 🧵 (1/2) #Fintwit #ValueInvesting

Full Alphabet Q2/2026 Valuation Report is available here:🔗 samfinnreports.gumroad.com/l/IVP_Valuation

Same model on Alphabet (25 Jul 2025): At $193 traded at 139% of Intrinsic Value, yet expected return still 24.4%. Stock up ~78% since. Want to see what it says about $GOOGL with Q2 2026 data? Full report just released 👇 (2/2) #Fintwit #ValueInvesting #GOOGL

Full Valuation Report (PDF) is available here: samfinnreports.gumroad.com/l/IVP_Valuation Includes Intrinsic Value, Margin of Safety / Premium, Estimated Cycle Time and expected returns based on the latest data.

Is $GOOGL overvalued or a generational buy? 🔎 I built a data-driven valuation model using decades of financial data. No AI hype, just "old school" math. Framework validated against $BRK.B (0.96 R²). Full Alphabet Valuation Report out now. Link below! gum.co/u/7ydwc8sx

Full Valuation Report (PDF) is available here: samfinnreports.gumroad.com/l/IVP_Valuation Includes Intrinsic Value, Margin of Safety / Premium, Estimated Cycle Time and expected returns based on the latest data.

Want to see what this exact same mathematical framework reveals about Alphabet Inc. right now? 🔎Does $GOOGL offer a significant Margin of Safety, or is it currently overvalued? I just released the Alphabet's Q2/2026 Valuation Report. Full PDF report available below! 👇 (2/2)

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

I backtested my valuation model against Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B using decades of data. The results show a remarkably high explanatory power between the calculated Intrinsic Value and the actual price (stats below). Fundamental value investing math still works. 🧵 (1/2)