Simon Kuok @SimonKuok

@PeterSchiff it's simple, the government will just have to default

Imagine taking one trade at a time and focusing on performing each step of the trading process flawlessly. Just as an artist doesn't focus on how much a painting will sell for, a developing trader doesn't focus on P/L. traderfeed.blogspot.com/2026/09/how-to…

Here’s a list of Scott Bessent’s wrong predictions and/or promises that didn’t happen: February 5, 2025: Long-term interest rates would come down as Trump’s economic policies took effect. Spring 2025: The federal deficit would move toward 3% of GDP. Spring 2025: Trump’s policies would produce roughly 3% sustained real GDP growth. July 8, 2025: The U.S. would collect well over $300 billion in tariff revenue in 2025. September 1, 2025: The Supreme Court would uphold Trump’s emergency tariffs. September 7, 2025: The economy would see a “substantial acceleration” in Q4 2025. December 7–16, 2025: 2025 would finish with 3% to 3.5% real GDP growth. December 16, 2025: Inflation would see a substantial drop in the first six months of 2026. February 20, 2026: The economy could grow at least 3.5% in 2026. April 14, 2026: 2026 GDP growth could easily exceed 3% or 3.5%. April 14, 2026: Core inflation was falling and the Federal Reserve would need to cut interest rates. April 14, 2026: Trump’s tariffs could be restored to their previous levels by the beginning of July. June 2026: Again maintained that 2026 growth could reach roughly 3% to 3.5%. 2025–26: Lower energy prices, fiscal restraint and Trump’s policies would bring down long-term Treasury yields. 2025–26: Faster growth and tariff revenue would materially improve the federal deficit. And now we get to track this one: September 5, 2026: Oil could eventually fall to $40–$50 per barrel after the Iran war ends. The economy is now “in the liftoff phase.”

Acyn @Acyn

a month ago

Lara Trump asks Bessent what’s his message for the midterms. He responds by claiming that oil prices could drop to $40-$50. “We are in the liftoff phase”

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US corporate profits have hit a record, but as worker payouts have decreased to the lowest level since the 1950

Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally. "I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left." "Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination." "Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets." "If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit." wsj.com/opinion/let-th…

Two economists mathematically proved that AI will destroy the economy. Researchers from Wharton and Boston University published a terryfiying paper called "The AI Layoff Trap." They mapped out the economic end-game of the AI transition, and it exposes a fatal flaw in competitive capitalism. When a company replaces a worker with AI, it captures 100% of the wage savings. But that displaced worker is also a consumer. When they lose their job, they stop buying things. The company gets all the savings, but the loss of consumer demand is spread across the entire economy. If there are 20 competitors in a market, a CEO only absorbs 1/20th of the economic damage their layoffs just created. So every single rational CEO has a mathematical incentive to automate as fast as possible. They can literally see the cliff approaching, and they still step on the gas. It triggers an unavoidable Prisoner’s Dilemma. If you don't automate, your competitors will, and they will crush you on price. It doesn't just hurt workers. It destroys the businesses, too. The economy gets trapped in an automation arms race. Companies fire their workforce to stay competitive, until the entire consumer base is completely hollowed out. At the limit, the paper concludes: “Firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand.” And the scariest part? The researchers mathematically tested every popular fix. Universal Basic Income? Fails. It raises the living standard but doesn't change the corporate incentive to cut jobs. Retraining? Fails. Worker equity? Fails. The paper proves that more competition actually makes the collapse happen faster. And "better" AI makes the damage worse. The only thing that mathematically stops the collapse is a targeted automation tax, forcing companies to pay for the purchasing power they destroy before they automate the job.

🚨 The Moment Trump Leaves the Iran War, the Petrodollar Dies Forever Professor Jiang explains how the US economy is a giant Ponzi scheme dependent on Gulf nations investing in American tech. If Iran forces the Gulf to abandon the petrodollar for food security, the US economy will face total collapse and revolution in the streets. Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs head of commodities and lifelong insider of the dollar system, just laid out the one line America cannot cross. Handing control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran is not a tactical retreat. It is the formal end of the United States as global hegemon and the death of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that Iran had its “throat on the Strait of Hormuz” for 45+ years and told the Trump administration to “finish this thing and finish it right.” Bank of America reports that U.S. now only has 43-day emergency buffer of crude oil left in 45-year low.

Going on tilt isn't a discipline problem. It's a brain problem. When traders overtrade, revenge trade or go on tilt, it's rarely because they lack willpower. It's because the brain has learned that the fastest way to relieve fear, stress, frustration etc is to release the pressure by placing another trade. Every trigger activates the same neural pathway. You don't break that loop by trying harder. You break it by teaching your brain that relief and reward can come from somewhere else. That's how lasting trading discipline is built. Because at it's core, trading discipline is all about managing fears.. #TradingPsychology #TradingMindset #PerformancePsychology #RiskManagement #TradingDiscipline

FINANCIAL GRAVITY: If we divide the S&P 500 by the fed’s balance sheet, the line is basically flat since 2008. The correlation coefficient between central bank quantitative easing and the price of stock indexes is nearly 1. The money printed by the Fed, because of the structure of the Open Market Operations, is plugged directly into the Treasury markets, and from there, flows into equities and derivatives. This has served to primarily enrich the asset owners, financial institutions, and wealthy elites who own the majority of the stock market anyways. The entire rally has been an illusion, financed by the Fed and maintained through QE.

Fugitive Caesar @ThomBrady5

3 months ago

The redpill on this is: America never recovered from 2008 and it's been 18 years of economic stagnation. Everyone wants to make this more complicated than it is, but it's exactly that simple. Dead zombie economy.

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Non-commercials' net shorts in e-mini $SPX futures flattish for 4 weeks. Bulls had opportunity to break out cash (7458) to new high but couldn't pull it off. Lost 50-DMA (7465) by a whisker; struggling to rally off of the average for 6 weeks. Major breakout retest at 7000. $SPY

Learned this rule on the floor 45 years ago and it still holds true 90% of the time (or so it seems): "If a stock does not trade into its GAP area the next 4 days, it can continue in the direction of the gap for 2 weeks. can see how this worked perfecetly the past two months on big blue!

Investors are pricing out the chance of a recession. Respondents to the latest BofA fund manager survey see a 54% of "no landing" for the economy, a record, w/only 2% seeing a hard landing. Sentiment is the most bullish since February; 83% see no Fed rate hikes before midterms

friday was said about the strait - and it got bought up real quick., if it didnt crash then, then nothing else changed today - news wise

well, not like anyone really uses the straight at this point other than a few smugglers

FinancialJuice @financialjuice

3 months ago

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: Trump: Reinstating the Iranian blockade.

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Premarket options trading on 20 megacap stocks starts tomorrow. Most traders are totally unaware. Cboe Options Exchange (C1) adds two sessions for select single-stock options: - A morning GTH session from 7:30am to 9:25am ET - An afternoon Curb session from 4:00pm to 4:15pm ET. Order acceptance starts 7:15am. About 20 names at launch: $AAPL, $AMD, $AMZN, $AVGO, $BABA, $GOOG, $GOOGL, $HOOD, $INTC, $META, $MSFT, $MU, $NFLX, $NVDA, $ORCL, $PLTR, $TSLA → Eligibility: 150k contracts ADV, $50B+ market cap, 10M+ shares ADV, over the prior six months. Rebalanced semi-annually. Capped at 100 classes. → Limit orders only. Market orders, stops, and stop-limits are rejected in both new sessions. → Trades print with an extended-hours "v" condition, are not last-sale eligible, and do not count toward the daily high/low. Equities went to 24x5 first. Options are catching up. Broker support will be uneven on day one. Source: cboe.com/notices/conten…

Semis just had their worst two days in over a year, $SMH -10%. And the real tell wasn't the size of the fall. It was the volume The session before a long weekend is normally a ghost town. Instead the chip ETF traded 1.5x the prior day's volume. Someone wanted out badly enough to sell in size, in daylight, in front of a 3-day break Money that genuinely leaves a sector doesn't come sprinting back for the same lottery tickets the next morning. It didn't I'm going into the long weekend flat the battleground and long patience. Not buying the dip, because the first tall red candles in a crowded theme are rarely the last. Full desk note, including the yen finally barking and the four key tells for next week👇🏻 open.substack.com/pub/taooftradi…

dow up, spx down, ruscal down down, nessy down down down message received

So now both $META and $SPCX are essentially neoclouds after failing to do anything meaningful with all the chips they bought and datacenters they built. Who is supposed to be renting all of this stuff again?

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

3 months ago

BREAKING: Meta, $META, is developing a cloud infrastructure business that will sell access to AI compute and aims to compete with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, per Bloomberg. Meta shares are surging over +7% on the news.

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🇺🇸 Margin Debt Margin debt is rising fast. Leverage can turbocharge gains in a rally, but it cuts just as hard when sentiment shifts. Investors would be wise to pay attention 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #stocks #equity #stockmarket

🇺🇸 The dollar is retreating in global foreign-exchange reserves but not collapsing. More importantly, no other currency is really taking its place. 📉 Since the early 2000s, the dollar’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves has fallen from around 70% to roughly 55% today. A meaningful and structural decline that reflects a willingness from central banks to reduce their dependence on a single currency. Despite that decline, the dollar remains by far the world’s dominant reserve currency even if we see a slow erosion of its monopoly. ➡️ This decline is not really benefiting one major rival currency. The euro remains broadly stuck around 20%, sterling and the yen remain secondary, and the Chinese yuan has not taken off. Being a major economic power is not enough to turn a currency into a global reserve currency. It needs deep, open and liquid financial markets, free capital flows, strong legal credibility, and a risk-free asset large enough to absorb hundreds of billions of dollars. Today, the United States still has that advantage through the Treasury market, something China does not yet offer. ✅ Therefore, the real winner remains diversification as central banks are spreading their reserves across a broader set of currencies and also increasingly into gold. In a more fragmented geopolitical world, holding assets that are not directly dependent on the US financial system becomes more attractive. *Link: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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