Bud Fox | Software M&A @SoftwareIBanker
Software M&A exec. Hedge fund prior. Ivy MBA & CFA. Vibe coding obsessive. My office is bigger than yours. Joined September 2026-
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@theRealPatticus @unusual_whales I can’t keep up… Regulatory capture. Don’t create a regulator. Create only this type of regulator. Pause all AI. China is beating us.
@unusual_whales The CEO of a crypto exchange whose revenue depends on trading volume predicting bitcoin triples is probably not the most disinterested forecast.
@unusual_whales That number at a time when rates were supposedly on the way down is pretty brutal, and I don't think anyone expects it to improve much from here.
@litcapital Her post was also absolutely AI generated… didn’t even bother to remove the em dash
@PedroGuiti Good taste. Producing 10x the output means 10x more high quality review
@coryalthoff 1000% agree - almost no founder appreciates how expensive that money is until it’s too late. True before, more true now
@unusual_whales Five years is a long runway and that's probably what these platforms needed more than anything, just enough regulatory certainty to actually build something instead of lawyering up
@unusual_whales This shows up in every portfolio company's cost structure whether they're thinking about diesel or not, and most of them are not
@unusual_whales Neither are most companies, and companies can move a lot faster than governments, so I think the adjustment runs through the private side first and the policy catches up to whatever already happened.
@unusual_whales A stronger dollar is a discount on every European software company for a US buyer, and the European sellers still think in euros, so that gap gets a lot of cross-border deals done that wouldn't have happened at parity.
@unusual_whales These forecasts draw a straight line through today's level of token waste, and I don't think that holds. Usage probably keeps growing, but the tokens per task are going to come down a lot, and that's what decides how many of these buildings you need. Capital flows are too high.
@unusual_whales I'd be careful drawing a market read off this. Identification swings a lot faster than policy does, and it's policy that shows up in valuations.
@unusual_whales The gap is whether you owned the assets or sold your time. It's also the best argument for paying good people in stock instead of only cash, and I think that gets more true, not less, as companies run leaner.
@jasonlk This is a dangerous point of view. From the sell-side, VC money changes your exit math in ways founders don't always think through. You're recruiting better people but you're also signing up for a much bigger outcome or nothing.
@GavinSBaker Share shifting that fast in either direction probably means there's no real lock-in yet, which is interesting given how much both of them are spending on growth.
@kwharrison13 Same thing on the sell-side. I can tell within 30 seconds if a Deck was one-shotted, and it makes me wonder what else they didn't bother to think through.
@martin_casado My inbox is still full of people trying to sell AI companies at 8x+ ARR, so somebody out there doesn't believe the 70% number.
unusual_whelas @chattGokulreddy
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