Demian @SovereignCap1

@paxtrader777 Well said

I stopped into the local vitamin store on my way to workout. The young clerk saw my car and struck up a conversation with me. He asked what i do, I told him I am a future’s trader. We chatted about how I got my start and how much easier it is now. He asked about all the YouTube nonsense, I told him to be careful, there is a ton of BS out there. He is a very respectful and nice young man. All you young people, take your time. You dont need all the answers today. Just create a vision for yourself and make a plan, then methodically get about the work of shaping your life. You are in charge. You are in control. Yoi are not a victim of anyone or anything and NOBODY owes you shit. Make it happen. You are more powerful than you know. You are loved. Go get it Julian.

This is from The Sunday Night Open on @NTLiveMedia. Traders in my group caught this entire trade plus tye NQ and ES swings in my Discord.

@charliebilello The last time there were secular bear markets in Stocks and Bonds, total real return of stocks for 20 years (1962-1982) was 0. Total real return from 1968 to 1982 was -34%. Total real return from 1999 to 2009 was -49%.

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US Treasury Department announces increased sizes of nominal long-end.

Getting older teaches you to take less personally once you realise most people move through life with no real internal dialogue They live on impulse, rarely calculating what today’s decisions will cost them tomorrow Learn life.

Another Record Close! Weekend deep dive Bitcoin cycle lows Inflation/unemployment/macro TA & Live Trades youtube.com/watch?v=vSroUW… $SPX $QQQ $DJIA $XAUUSD $DXY $BTC $SMH $IWM

Investment demand through ETFs and COMEX speculators futures position in gold, silver, platinum and palladium

One of the highlights of the Warsh Fed has been watching stenographers posing as journalists, like the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, reduced to reporting Fed backroom gossip because they’re incapable of performing real economic or monetary policy analysis without being spoon-fed.

The FREE Market Macro Hub console will be released Friday at 5pm BST I'm choosing 3 people to recieve access early, comment "ACCESS" below!

@_alfiekerswell ACCESS

Absolute classic from the Covid Totalitarian era - trust me, you will not be disappointed!!!

There is a process that I have used, and still use, to reignite life... Create two timelines—6 months and 12 months—and list up to five things you dream of having (including, but not limited to, material wants: house, car, clothing, etc.), being (be a great cook, be fluent in Chinese, etc.), and doing (visiting Thailand, tracing your roots overseas, racing ostriches, etc.) in that order. If you have difficulty identifying what you want in some categories, as most will, consider what you hate or fear in each and write down the opposite. Do not limit yourself, and do not concern yourself with how these things will be accomplished. For now, it’s unimportant. This is an exercise in reversing repression. Be sure not to judge or fool yourself. If you really want a Ferrari, don’t put down solving world hunger out of guilt. For some, the dream will be fame, for others fortune or prestige. All people have their vices and insecurities. If something will improve your feeling of self-worth, put it down. Drawing a blank? In that case, consider these questions: 1) What would you do, day to day, if you had $100 million in the bank? 2) What would make you most excited to wake up in the morning to another day? Don’t rush—think about it for a few minutes. If still blocked, fill in the five “doing” spots with the following: — one place to visit — one thing to do before you die (a memory of a lifetime) — one thing to do daily — one thing to do weekly — one thing you’ve always wanted to learn What does “being” entail doing? Convert each “being” into a “doing” to make it actionable. Identify an action that would characterize this state of being or a task that would mean you had achieved it. People find it easier to brainstorm “being” first, but this column is just a temporary holding spot for “doing” actions. Here are a few examples: 1) Great cook —> make Christmas dinner without help 2) Fluent in Chinese —> have a five-minute conversation with a Chinese co-worker Determine three steps for each of the dreams in just the 6-month timeline and take the first step now. Define three steps for each dream that will get you closer to its actualization. Set actions—simple, well-defined actions—for now, tomorrow (complete before 11 A.M.) and the day after (again completed before 11 A.M.). Once you have three steps for each of the four goals, complete the three actions in the “now” column. Do it now. Each should be simple enough to do in five minutes or less. If not, rachet it down. If it’s the middle of the night and you can’t call someone, do something else now, such as send an e-mail, and set the call for first thing tomorrow. If the next stage is some form of research, get in touch with someone who knows the answer instead of spending too much time in books or online, which can turn into paralysis by analysis. The best first step, the one I recommend, is finding someone who’s done it and ask for advice on how to do the same.

@_alfiekerswell Do you attribute this resilient growth backdrop as one of the primary reasons we are seeing relatively suppressed volatility across both the VIX and MOVE. Even OVX and GVZ remaining quite steady despite recent moves. If so, what would you need to see to shift?

thoughts on the labor market, inflation, and more: open.substack.com/pub/ericwaller…

Recent recording with steps on HOW to access the FREE console on July 17th! open.substack.com/pub/marketmacr…

SNEAK PREVIEW of the yield curve models you can use for a backtest, which will be available on the FREE console released by MMH Reshares, retweets and reccomending your friends to Market Macro Hub is super helpful and appreciated, I want as many people to know about this as possible!

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I figured this would eventually happen, but not as quickly as it seems to be happening and, for this, Paul Krugman should get credit. For years mainstream economists were unable to understand how trade and globalization work because they were locked into trade models that implicitly assumed that trade was balanced (except, occasionally, over short time periods) and that capital flowed towards its most productive use. That is why their understanding of trade had no relevance to the actual world of trade that emerged in the 1970s and 1980s. But this couldn't last. As the problem of unbalanced trade became more obvious , and as policymakers were increasingly forced to ignore the advice of their economists and respond to real problems, mainstream economists would eventually begin to recognize how, in an unevenly globalized world, countries that aggressively intervene in their domestic economies and externalize the costs through trade surpluses are also effectively intervening in the domestic economies of countries that supposedly remain committed to "free trade". Most economists still don't understand trade. But with Krugman now acknowledging that tariffs and other forms of trade intervention can be expansionary under some conditions and contractionary under others (as Ragnar Nurkse explained as long ago as in his 1944 book), I suspect that younger economists will develop a completely different understanding of trade, and one that is perhaps a little more realistic.

Mike @Doranimated

4 months ago

Krugman boards the Trump train. Who could have predicted this?

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@_alfiekerswell Thank you. Looking forward to the dashboard

THOUGHTS ON RISK MANAGEMENT I started this discussion to make the point that risk management is far more nuanced than most on Twitter makes it seem. Yes, part of great risk management is having rigid rules, discipline, and structure. But trading is also a game of uncertainty, changing context, and asymmetric opportunity. Not every situation cleanly fits inside a pre-defined box. Good risk management isn’t just about protecting yourself. Good risk management also allows you to maximize pnl while minimizing unacceptable outcomes. For many conservative traders, the biggest weakness in their trading is actually NOT taking enough risk. One needs to recognize that risk is inherent in our job. You can’t make money without it. In fact, many overlooked that sometimes even blowup risk should be an acceptable risk. One question I pushed traders on in this discussion: If you had a trade with a 98% chance of retiring your family forever… but it violated your risk rules… would you take it? Many said no. Personally, I think that for anyone out there grinding, you’d have to be out of your fucking mind not to take that trade. Because the reality is: most traders already have some probability of blowup regardless. No matter what you think, you already probably have a .5% or 1% or 2% chance of blowing up over the course of a career. Plus even if you didn’t, for many over the long run, strategies decay and edge disappear. Many traders will NEVER “beat the game” over a long enough horizon. So if you truly had a massively asymmetric opportunity with overwhelming expected value… are you really going to pass on it because a rulebook said so????? Insanity. At the same time, history is FULL of incredible traders who got overconfident, oversized, and eventually lost everything. So we also can’t fool ourselves into believing we are objective when emotions are involved. In fact, the moments where we most NEED risk management are often the exact moments where we are the least capable of accurately handicapping expected value because we’re tilted, euphoric, desperate, exhausted, or emotionally compromised. IMO, inaccurate handicapping of expected value is the biggest danger of any risk management system in practice. Also… Risk management should always be subservient to goals. That’s why it’s personal. If you have a $1,000 account and you’re young, maybe taking aggressive shots and occasionally blowing up is part of the learning curve. If you’re managing 100% of your family’s net worth, the acceptable risk profile becomes completely different. This is also where wiring out money and keep safe stashes of acorns is a whole other important discussion. There is no universal framework. Only tradeoffs. Many asked me my opinion on these topics. The truth is, I’ve broken risk management rules dozens of times. I’ve taken existential risk dozens of times. Sometimes intentionally so, other times not. Should one be willing to violate their rules? Probably? Should one be willing to take on existential risk? Depends the person. I don’t have the answers, but I do think what is most important is recognizing that good risk management is: 1. Iterative 2. Never perfect. 3. Some level of rule-based. 4. Flexible enough to cover the complexity of trading as @Ksidiii mentioned as well. Perhaps a topic for a future video.

Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB

5 months ago

Is it ever ok to override your risk rules? Why or why not?

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