ThenPath @ThenPathMarkets

@TheProfInvestor Rest up. Learn from history. Make money next week. 📈

@QC_Capital_ Software. Everyone's chasing the AI infrastructure trade while the next opportunity is hiding in plain sight. The next leg of AI won't be about who spends the most. It'll be about who earns the most from what has already been built.

The dispersion argument is compelling. If the era of falling rates lifted almost everything together, the next regime could reward selectivity much more. I'd be curious whether historical periods of rising rates actually show a persistent advantage for active managers, or just a wider gap between the best and worst stocks.

@Mr_Derivatives Post-mortem chart reviews are useful. The real test is whether the same setup would have stood out before the breakdown. That's why I think studying both the historical matches that worked and the ones that failed is so valuable.

If you held $TSLA through earnings, that -3.1% reaction stings. Before the report, we highlighted Tesla's last 4 earnings: 4 EPS misses. 3 negative stock reactions. This time? Tesla finally BEAT EPS estimates. The stock still fell 3.1%. A better quarter doesn't always mean a better stock reaction. That's why we study earnings history BEFORE the numbers come out. What matters more for Tesla now: earnings or expectations?

ThenPath @ThenPathMarkets

3 days ago

🔔UPCOMING EARNINGS | $TSLA ⚡ Tesla missed EPS estimates in its last 4 earnings reports. The stock fell after 3 of them. 📉 The worst reaction? −14.5%. But one miss actually sent shares UP. With earnings today, will Tesla break the streak? 👀 #TSLA #Tesla #Earnings $SPCX

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Yesterday, we flagged $WDC: 4 straight EPS beats. 3 negative post-earnings reactions. Today, WDC beat EPS and revenue estimates again. And the stock fell again. 5 EPS beats. 4 negative reactions. Beating expectations isn't always enough when expectations are already sky-high. We flagged the pattern before the earnings release.

ThenPath @ThenPathMarkets

a day ago

🔔UPCOMING EARNINGS | $WDC 💾 Western Digital beat EPS estimates in ALL 4 of its last earnings reports. But the stock fell after 3 of them. 📉 The worst? −13.0% after an EPS BEAT. Apparently, beating Wall Street isn't always enough. Earnings today. Will $WDC finally reward

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@dividendology The business got better. The valuation got even more generous. At 38x forward earnings, Apple's biggest risk may not be a collapse in profits. It may simply be that a great business no longer justifies a great multiple.

@Mr_Derivatives The dangerous part of this analog isn't whether VIX drops next. It's assuming a falling VIX means the equity market is out of danger. 2018 was a reminder that volatility can reset before the next shock.

@KobeissiLetter Buybacks are becoming one of the biggest structural supports for US equities. But the real signal isn't the $1.3T authorized. It's how aggressively companies execute those buybacks when stocks sell off.

@LukeGromen The biggest mistake is treating China's weak equity market as proof that Chinese investors had nowhere to make money. Gold and Chinese equities are two very different stories. Asset selection mattered far more than the country narrative.

@KobeissiLetter 1999 is a useful reminder that stretched markets can get a lot more stretched before they break. The timing matters more than the warning itself. Being early on a bubble call can be almost as painful as being wrong.

🔔UPCOMING EARNINGS | $SOFI 🏦 SoFi beat EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 earnings reports. Yet the stock fell after 3 of them. 📉 The worst reaction? −15.4% after meeting expectations. Wall Street clearly wants more than an EPS beat. Earnings October 27. Will $SOFI finally break the pattern? 👀 #SOFI #Earnings

@StockSavvyShay The interesting part isn't just the 35% drop. It's whether this is a valuation reset or the beginning of a fundamental repricing. Would love to see how similar high-growth selloffs played out historically.

@GlobalMktObserv This is where the AI trade gets interesting. Equity investors are pricing in future growth, while credit markets are starting to question the cost of getting there. $ORCL is particularly worth watching given how capital-intensive its AI cloud expansion has become.

@randgroup A stock going from 70x to 27x earnings doesn't automatically make it cheap. The interesting question is whether luxury demand is structurally changing, or whether valuations have already priced in too much pessimism.

@Barchart The bigger question is whether this underperformance has created opportunities in individual Chinese stocks. $BABA is one we're watching closely. The gap between its cloud growth potential and market valuation is worth a closer look.

@XBusiness That's a massive sentiment reversal in just a few weeks. The interesting question is whether bond bulls are early to the next leg lower in yields, or whether the trade is already getting crowded.

The biggest mistake investors make is assuming today's market share is tomorrow's ceiling. AMD didn't need to beat NVIDIA to become a compelling investment. It needed to capture a meaningful slice of a rapidly expanding market. That's the setup I'd be looking for again: a company priced like it has no future in a market that's getting much bigger.

Stocks are selling off like the economy is breaking. Meanwhile, the PMI is accelerating, new orders are holding up, and hiring is expanding. My take: this looks more like a valuation and positioning reset than the beginning of an earnings collapse. The real risk is that a resilient economy keeps rates higher for longer.