Interesting read in todays @globeandmail with implications for #OttCity and #Lansdowne that exposes risk/uncertainty of plan approved by council (cc @ShawnMenard1 @DevineSean @tm_kavanagh and others) 1/theglobeandmail.com/business/artic…
Article is paywalled, but basics are that condo market has collapsed in Toronto. While housing is getting a push, focus is on rental housing construction w/grants etc; condos are a different animal and there are few/no funding options other than presales. 2/
DT condos, per article, are going for $1800/sq ft in Toronto; many projects are shelved and/or indefinitely on hold. What does this mean for Lansdowne? 3/
Sale of air rights in L 1.0 were expected to be $10m but received no bids. After re-asking, 1 bid at 3.49m was made; in Lansdowne 2.0 the expectation is sale of air rights will significantly underwrite cost of project. What if that pattern repeats? 4/
Leaving aside the craptacular rfp expectations for sale of said rights (happy to chat of someone what’s thoughts on this) what if the only/few bidders look at condo market at bid low, knowing they’ll have to take a hit bc condo sales are weak? 5/
Alternatively they may bid, and then sit on project waiting for market to rebound before starting presales. That could be years and years away (currently pegged 2030-2034+); has city run financial models? @ShawnMenard1 @DevineSean @tm_kavanagh what’s the plan if 6/
Sale of air rights is ⅓ of budget and residential is delayed by 5 years, and its impact on delayed tax revenue on fiscal plan for recovering our investment? What if OSEG says they need more $ bc of these delays or that retail hasn’t taken off bc there aren’t enough people? 7/
Here’s how this could be different: sell the airtights for $1 to affordable/non profit housing or coop providers. Ensure that there is municipal support for housing so project goes ahead. Keeps public lands in public hands. 8/
That of course assumes the project as is. Definitely ways to improve the project as set before us but this is one small way we should evaluate the choices made and revisit financials.