Ali Suliman @alisulimanlib

Macron isn't fighting the diesel crisis but fighting the rules that define what diesel is. Loosening fuel quality standards doesn't create one extra barrel of crude. It just lets refiners blend in dirtier, cheaper components and still call it diesel. The timing isn't random. This is landing on top of Hormuz disruption and a Saudi pipeline that's been down, the exact chain we've been tracking all week. When the physical molecules can't move, governments reach for the one lever they actually control: what gets legally classified as fuel. The diesel-heavy car fleet is the real trap here. Governments spent two decades subsidizing diesel as the "clean" choice, pre-Dieselgate, and now 4 in 10 cars on European roads are stuck exposed to a fuel market with almost no slack left in it. Worth watching whether "5-20% more refinery output" actually holds up once this moves from a Macron press line to an actual EU regulatory text. Numbers like that tend to shrink once refiners, environmental regulators, and member states start fighting over the fine print.

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

a hour ago

🇪🇺 Europe is getting hit harder by the diesel crisis than any other major economy, and it's costing drivers €203 million a day. Filling up a 50-litre tank now costs about €30 more than it did in January, a 40% jump. Petrol is up 28% over the same period. 4 in 10 cars on

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This project represents 5% of Libya's GDP! Very interesting piece by @gulf_news gulfnews.com/world/libyas-2…

@JavierBlas The real headline is the pipeline test behind it. East-West is Aramco's way around Hormuz completely. If this becomes the standing route instead of a stopgap, that's the thing worth watching.

I recently started a YouTube channel focused on Libya. The idea is simple: to talk about Libya in a way that’s clear, approachable, and interesting for anyone who wants to learn more about this beautiful country. Check it out! youtube.com/@AliSuliman-z1v

The real value here isn't the dollars, it's getting them at a locked exchange rate for years out. That protects Co-op Bank from currency mismatch risk if the shilling moves against businesses repaying in local currency. Worth watching the term and pricing. Locked in during calm markets is a good hedge. Locked in after recent volatility is expensive insurance.

The Sumed route to Europe never touches Bab el-Mandeb at all, so a Yanbu recovery could just mean more barrels going north through Egypt, no Houthi risk involved. If it's actually the Asia-bound leg picking up, check freight and insurance rates on those specific voyages. That's the tell. Ships quietly going round the Cape instead of risking the strait would show up as longer transit times without insurance premiums jumping to match.

The tell here is what's missing: Iran's offer skips the nuclear program entirely, pushing it to "later talks." That's the actual sticking point for Washington, not Hormuz. Seven days is also a number Iran controls, not something the US can verify upfront. Ease the blockade first, trust the follow-through after. Real question isn't whether Iran wants Hormuz open again. It obviously does, the closure hurts Tehran too. It's whether the US accepts partial relief now while the nuclear issue gets deferred, or holds the blockade as leverage until that's settled.

Call that border management or call it a workaround around asylum obligations. Either way, the money is what's actually running the policy, not the statements about "saving lives at sea." My guess is nothing changes in Brussels as more reporting on this comes out. The arrangement is already doing exactly what it was built to do.

Whoever reaches the boat first decides what happens to the people on it. That's not luck, it comes down to who has the faster boat and the better position, and the Libyan Coast Guard has both because the EU trains it, funds it, and supplies its vessels. The funding isn't incidental. It lets European governments keep people out of Europe without doing the intercepting themselves.

Two migrant boats crossed the same stretch of Mediterranean days apart, and ended up in completely different places. One was intercepted by the Libyan Coast Guard and sent back to Libya. The rescue ship Ocean Viking was reportedly just minutes away when it happened. The other boat, the Ocean Viking got to first. 23 people rescued, including women and unaccompanied minors.

@Frank_Stones The mechanism matters here: a 100% tariff isn't a sanction, it's a price the buyer pays instead. Countries with weak dollar reserves or high import dependence (Turkey, India, several African refiners) will feel this fastest.

Libya’s Oil Problem and the Industrial Future Being Built Around It. First video on my Youtube Channel: youtu.be/nGq7LcYFSeg?si…

Iran just opened a second front in the Strait of Hormuz. This week the Houthis took Mokha and Perim Island, giving them control of Yemen's Red Sea coast. Same week, drones hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and shut it down. Days earlier, strikes hit energy sites in Jazan and Najran, wounding over 70 people. Hormuz has been effectively closed since February. Now the other exit off the Arabian Peninsula is under threat too. Same proxy network, same backer. The logic is simple. Iran can't fight the US and Israel directly right now. It can make the war expensive for everyone standing near it. Squeeze both straits at once and Gulf states start asking if backing Washington is worth the cost at home. MBS pushing Trump for action against the Houthis tells you Riyadh already sees the difference between one closed strait and two. My read: this is signaling, not yet closure. A feared strait does the job without forcing a response that pulls Washington deeper in. Watch whether the US gets drawn into Yemen directly.

Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones

a week ago

🚨The Houthis are threatening to mine the Bab el-Mandeb Strait Iran and its regional proxies have executed a coordinated strategy targeting Saudi infrastructure and complete the "Hormuzisation" of the Red Sea Here is what's happening 👇🇾🇪🇸🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸🧵

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Worth separating two different things here: combat experience and force generation are the two levers, but exploiting Russian battlefield data assumes that data transfers cleanly to a Taiwan scenario. Amphibious assault and urban warfare in Ukraine's terrain aren't the same problem set.

Libya's National Oil Corporation says it may declare force majeure after protests disrupted several oil facilities. The timing matters. Gulf supply is already disrupted, and Hormuz traffic is down sharply, so the market has little room left to absorb another outage. A local political dispute can move prices far more than it normally would when the global buffer is already this thin.

@TheLibyaUpdate A very positive initiative. Early screening can make a huge difference in a child’s development and quality of life. Hopefully this becomes a model that can be expanded across Libya!

🇱🇾 A positive development for Libya my country. A $2.5 billion industrial project in eastern Libya could be an important step toward building an economy that produces more than just oil. The real opportunity is bigger than the investment itself: jobs, exports, industrial capacity and eventually more value being created inside Libya. If projects like this are implemented well, they can become part of the diversification Libya has needed for decades. reuters.com/world/africa/m…

Worth watching. Iran’s engagement with China comes at a time when Tehran needs both diplomatic and economic room to maneuver. The outcome of these talks could say a lot about how deep the Iran–China relationship really is.

CHINA MFA Spokesperson 中国外交部发言人 @MFA_China

a week ago

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran Seyyed Abbas Araghchi will visit China on September 16. Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi will hold talks with him.

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Libya's oil guards just proved a point nobody wants to admit. One pay dispute and a 120,000 bpd refinery goes dark. The Petroleum Facilities Guard has shut Zawiya down before over the same unpaid wages and health insurance demands. Libya's economy runs on one lever. When one group pulls it, the whole country feels it. A country with Libya's coastline, farmland and manufacturing potential shouldn't be this exposed to a single sit-in at a single gate.

Libya Review @LibyaReview

a week ago

#BREAKING Oil Facilities Guards in Libya’s Al-Zawiya have shut down the Al-Zawiya Oil Complex, home to Libya’s second-largest oil refinery. Libyareview.com

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